Big draw, turn check, do I suck?

[Guy McSucker]

Just sat down so no real reads, but in the round I've been here everyone looks pretty typical: too loose, a little passive, not very good.

Party 5/10 6-max. Hero (SuckerMC) is dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif UTG.

Preflop: SuckerMC raises, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, SuckerMC bets, UTG+1 raises, SB calls, SuckerMC 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

I 3-bet here for value with my two callers. Good move?

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks, <font color=" red">SuckerMC checks</font>, UTG+1 checks.

This is the decision I wonder about most. Should I keep firing here? If I get two callers and all my outs are clean, it's still for value. There's some small chance I'm ahead. If I get no callers, I win. Does all that add up to a bet?

River: what should I do on the river if I miss?

Suppose instead I had bet the turn and got one call from UTG+1; what then on a blank river?

Guy.

[PokerNoob]

I fire again. If I'm not raised, I would consider my T outs good and my A outs good about half the time because they do so love to raise A8 on that flop. If I'm raised again, I've got plenty of club outs to see the river, although I would be wary of the board pairing. Another reason to bet is that you've represented a big overpair and UTG might fold (doubtful).

On the river I would checkcall if I totally missed, bet otherwise. I might fold if the board got even more coordinated and SB bet.

[ToneLoc]

Well if you decide to three-bet the flop, why don't you keep firing on the turn, giving yourself a (small) chance to pick-up the pot?

If you want to check the turn, just call the flop raise?

[fsuplayer]

the SB worries me a little, but i still think i may bet the turn for value, as well a the small chance of someone folding a pair, whatever it may be. hell, if you can get someone to fold 22 on the turn, then you should bet.

my default play is to bet.

fsuplayer

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

If you want to check the turn, just call the flop raise?


[/ QUOTE ]

There's no question in my mind that the flop 3-bet is profitable regardless of how I play the turn. I will make the nut flush over a third of the time and am getting two callers on my 3-bet.

Guy.

[spider]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the decision I wonder about most. Should I keep firing here? If I get two callers and all my outs are clean, it's still for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you discount the overcards by 50% (as in SSH/Miller), this is no longer a value bet. But following the flop 3-bet, a turn bet very likely gets at least one fold, possibly cleaning up your overcard outs and more likely to set up a river bluff/cheap showdown.

Put all those things together, and you should bet the turn. And with the 9 flush outs, you aren't going to feel that horrible even if you get raised.

On river blank, my defaults would probably be:
(1) check/fold against 2 opponents
(2) check/fold against SB only (maybe bet if checked to?)
(3) bet against UTG+1 only (and fold to raise)

[ALL1N]

Betting the turn improves your chances of winning without hitting your flush (cleaning up outs or with ace-high), at only a slight cost. Do it.

[Swede]

A turn bet is possibly the best wat to follow up your flop action. It is a value bet.

[MAxx]

I would like the flop 3-bet a lot more if there was an additional player.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong in any of the following statements:

After we flop a four flush it will complete by the river about a third of the time. If we igorned your high card strenght and backdoor straight for a second, you would be about even money when each opponent calls your 3bet. If we added a 3rd opponent, it would be unquestionable by far the best move.

My quess is that you are still slightly +EV because of your your back door straight/ High card possibilities. It would just be better for your flush potential if we added another victim. Your 3 bet certainly isnt negative EV, but may be just an increasing variance issue.

Because you do not have position, I would almost have to lead turn to increase your chances to pickup the pot uncontested or clear up an out by makeing one of the victims drop out. If you had position, I would definitely consider takeing a free turn card.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

After we flop a four flush it will complete by the river about a third of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, just over: 1.86:1 against.

Of course it won't always win, but I reckon we can offset the times the nut flush gets cracked against the times my hand wins some other way; in fact the other ways to win probably outstrip the chance of completing the nut flush and losing. So I think there's clear value in the raise against two players although I agree it gets more juicy against three.

Consensus is I need to bet the turn. I am sure that's correct. Thanks everyone.

BTW, I rivered and ace, bet it for value, and won the pot against pocket 7s behind me.

Guy.

[turnipmonster]

this is unimportant in the 5/10 game, but it's worth mentioning that checking the turn screams flush draw. so I would be very inclined to bet against someone trying to read me and play well.

--turnipmonster

[naphand]

It also screams overcards and a pocket underpair.

[turnipmonster]

out of position, you think overcards/undedrpair 3 bet the flop then check the turn?