KK early

[Jason Strasser]

Opponent seems very reasonable, I've played with him before. $100 sng on party.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

CO (t1045)
Button (t1140)
SB (t985)
BB (t835)
UTG (t710)
UTG+1 (t985)
UTG+2 (t985)
MP1 (t960)
MP2 (t1370)
Hero (t985)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t50</font>, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t85</font>, BB folds, Hero calls t35.

Flop: (t185) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets t250</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero?</font>

What range of hands can the opponent have? Your move? My plan on the flop was to check raise any flop without an ace, but I was puzzled here.

-Jason

Edit: Raise not check raise, duh.

[La Brujita]

Jason,

Repopping it preflop for me is absolutely standard. What were your thoughts there?

If you feared AA due to the miniraise to a strong enough degree I think you have to decide to just get away from a flop you don't flop a set.

That may be crazy talk but I never fear AA to that extent so I am just going to play this flop strong.

I guess my point is it is hard to tiptoe around this kind of flop with relatively shallow money. The thing is why the overbet on the flop by your opponent?

Some likely hands he may have-AA AQ KK KQs JJ TT AK AKs clubs, a set of queens a set of nines.

He acts first so I guess you meant raise or bet out any flop?

I see your problem, AA and you are in trouble QQ you are in trouble.

These are disjointed thoughts I know but I push on the flop.

[ZeeJustin]

AA is the most likely hand for your opponent, but that certainly isn't the entire range of hands for him.
He could have AK, AQ, , KQ KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 (each with very different likelihoods).

I think you are ahead more often than not on this flop, but I don't think shoving is profitable unless he will often call you with worse hands.

I'm not sure what you mean by reasonable. If you mean average by party standards, I'd prolly just shove. If reasonable means good, I would just call and figure out where I am on the turn. Only against a select few weak tight players would I fold.

Preflop, I will only call against good players (and I would classiy less than 1/10 players in these things as good). Against most players I will reraise hoping to get all-in PF.

[SmileyEH]

How can you checkraise the flop when you act after the SB...do you mean to check behind and bet/raise the turn or raise the flop? I would put your opp. on TT JJ QQ AA AKc or AQc.

-SmileyEH

[Lafortezza]

Opponent holds AQs? or AK clubs? A flopped set of nines might check raise, a flopped set of 3's might just bet it for fear of the flush.

Whe you say the opponent is reasonable, how so?

[Jason Strasser]

I would say reasonable as in, above the average player at the table. Take that for what it is.

-Jason

[ZeeJustin]

If the player is merely above average, I go all-in on the flop since I think the above average player in a party 100+9 is still most likely a donkey that will pay me off with hands as bad as TT.

[wjmooner]

Hero can't checkraise since he has position for the rest of the hand I think.

Hero should have reraised that raise, unless he believes that villian only min. raises with AA. I'm willing to go all in with KK at any time, are the 100's different in this respect from the 10's and 20's?

Villian has AA, KK (unlikely of course), AK on a bluff on the flop, AKclubs, AQ or a pair 99-QQ. I think AQ, AA, and AKclubs are the most likely.

The min. raise is weird though and sets off warning bells in my head, but since he bet 250 hero can't just call it down I don't think.

I probably push this. I'm interested to hear what others say though.

Wow, in five minutes I spent thinking about this there were 5 other responses!!

WJ

[Jason Strasser]

Here are my thoughts in general about repopping preflop.

I tend to avoid reraising a reraise with deep stacks (and for the first level of a sng, stacks are quite deep) with any hands. Unless people are pot committed, I tend to flat call and raise most flops. The reasoning here is that how many hands can a reasonable player raise, get reraised, and then come over the top? For me, there are only 3 hands where this would be my typical play (AA KK QQ). I feel like I make more money flat calling most flops, because I wont telegraph my hand. It's the same reasoning for why my usual play when I flop some whack 2-pair from the blinds in a fairly shorthanded pot with aggressive players, I will almost ALWAYS check-raise, instead of lead out. This is because I will be on check/fold mode here most of the time, and I tend to make more money.

Reraising a reraise for me is a telegraph. If I felt like my opponent was pot committed, I would definitely push. But if my opponent leads into me on the flop, I tend to tie my opponent to the pot, and it's more profitable.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

I meant raise, not check raise, thanks for catching that.

Secondly, I did not call preflop for set value. I would've pushed if I could've gotten all-in. I explained my preflop play in the previous post.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Bah, he wasn't a donkey.

Say he was an average 2+2er (also take that for what its worth), then what?

[rachelwxm]

Jason,
I don't play at those levels, so take my opinion catiously. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I don't put him on a set or 2 pair since people usually slow play those at least go for a check raise instead of pot bet. This amount of bet on flop sounds more like he is trying to win the pot right there. Yes he could have AA and try to protect against flush draws, but he might as well has AQ or mid pocket pairs or even flush draws. I think unless you read him as AA I would either move in or call down. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[unfrgvn]

Caveat: Biggest buy-in I've played is 30 and only a couple of those.

Is he cable of making a min re-raise to make you think he has Aces? I know this can get into circular logic, but that seems like it would be a nice play. I don't see any way you can find out what he has without getting pot commited. I guess you could re-raise to 500 and if he goes all in you could lay down with T400. Somehow that doesn't sound like you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The range of hands I would put him on in my SNG's would be AA, AK, AQ, KK, QQ(not sure about this, if he flopped a set I don't see him leading out), maybe JJ, flush draw, maybe any 2 if he made the play above, which would not happen in my SNG. Anyway, I would smooth call and see if that scares him.

[AceFace]

It's early and with deep stacks, calling the reraise preflop should be OK.

I'd flat call on the flop, though. The overbet is a bit suspicious and I wouldn't rule out some sort of underpair, since you havent shown excessive strength preflop.

See how the other player reacts to your flat call.

[rybones]

my question is what do you think he thinks you have? I mean if he has played you previously at this level, what kinds of hands have you shown down after having raised 3.4 x(roughly) bb from mid position? not that these are things you haven't thought about, but perhaps they would help the analysis?

I ask this as his bet on the flop seems odd to me? and I wonder what he was trying to do. If I do the math correctly the pot is 85 + 85 + 15 = t185? so why the more than pot bet, but not a push? is he trying to entice your push as he has the A,A or the set of Qs? is there any reason he might have raised to 85 with 9,9 and now has the set? does this guy take notes?

without your insights, my guess is he had you on J,J or K,K he had A,Qs caught the Q and the flush draw and wanted to test you?

Alas, these are just my thoughts and I would love comments?

results?

Ryan

[ThorGoT]

He has AK, with at most one club. He thinks you do *not* have AA or KK, and he thinks you think he *does* (or probably does) have AA or KK. I guess that's not a "range" of hands, but whatever.

*Edit* If he has a club, it's the King, not the Ace.

[stupidsucker]

I will have a shot at this.

I dont think he has AA. I think the blinds are too small for him to minraise you with AA. It doesnt make sense to me. Also if you put him on par with your own play , would you minraise with AA in that spot? I think it was a test raise. I do it here and there. I throw out a small raise to see how you will react. If you come over the top for more I can put you on a smaller range of hands.

I put him on AK, AA-TT. 99 is possible but unlikely. I am much more afraid of QQ here then I am 99 or AA. QQ is one of those hands where preflop you really want to know what your opponent holds. are out outmatched with AA or KK and should I be worried about an A or K flop. Based on this, I think he puts YOU on AK because of how you reacted preflop.

So, to the question at hand. What now?

Well I think he would bet this flop with any of the mentioned hands. I think he might try to slow the QQ, or bet smaller, so I think cold calling here is the best move. Only thing you should be worried about is an Ace turn, or maybe a club. There is always the looming threat of a set of queens, but what can ya do? I tend to be too aggressive, and I also would have reraised preflop.

[lorinda]

I'm not saying I COULD fold this, but I think it's the right play.

Range of hands AA, QQ, er...... KK? or stone bluff if he knows you're a good player who will read him as a big hand with his mini raise.

If you think he's capable of the latter level of thinking then call, otherwise you look done.

Lori

[sfbruin]

Hero is the first one in(MP3) and open-raises. Couldn't this look like a steal to another opponent? If SB picks up a decent hand, even something like KQs, I could see him mini-raising like this. Why give credit for AA KK QQ?

[lorinda]

Typically someone restealing will raise enough to have a chance to actually pick up the pot preflop rather than risk a flop.

In fairness my opinion is more valid at the lower limits, but the mini-raise from a 'good' player seems more geared to entice an over-raise than to try to win the pot, or gain information.

We haven't invested many chips in this pot, if the guy was intending to steal, he'd have done it preflop, or tried to steal small on the flop.

He could have KQ or AQ but I don't really see why we can't just fold this and move on.
As I said previously, in the heat of battle I'm not convinced I would fold it, but I feel it's the right move.

Lori

[stripsqueez]

sheesh - you didnt reraise pre-flop and then got a sizeable bet into you on the flop - what did you expect ?

if i was the other guy i might fold to a big flop reraise from a good player with a hand like QQ, JJ, maybe even AK - like you say - given you have chosen to create the belief you dont have AA or KK surely your committed to shoving a bunch of chips on this flop

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Jman28]

I couldn't fold a hand like this, but I'm thinking it might be the right decision.

Here's what I think he's thinking with AA,KK, and an unlikely QQ...

Preflop:
This guy (you) raised late, maybe on a steal. If I reraise big, he'll give up on a steal. If he wasn't stealing, he might lay down AK or AQ or JJ if I reraise too much.
If I min reraise, he would probably see a flop if he was on a steal or maybe think I'm trying to take the pot from him and come over the top big. I want to give him another chance to make this pot huge without giving my hand away. If he has AK or AQ or JJ, maybe he'll play back at me sensing weakness. Then the pot'll be big enough to force him to put the rest of his chips in, at least by the flop.

Flop:
Balls. I wish I raised more preflop. I don't want my (insert cards here) cracked by a flush. I'll overbet to force out the draw because I am not gonna lose with this hand! Maybe he'll have TPTK and call or raise and I got him. Maybe he'll push on a 4 flush and hopefully he won't draw out on me.


After typing that, I may lay a hand like this down.

Actually no, I'm not that good yet. I wanna see what he has too.

Curious about the results.

-Jman28

[Phill S]

by not re-raising preflop (i like the theory but in a SnG i dont buy not raising when you can) you left it open for a 2+2 level (your words) to bet the flop to take it down.

its hard to say what he has, but in the situation i could play his hand any way with any of the named hands so far. and even if the flop doesnt hit me id still bet it pretty hard.

i dont think i could fold KK here, but then i dont play the 100s. id have raised preflop, and if i only get a small pot, so be it. its early, and the most chip movement is late game.

are you ahead, probably. would i call, definately. would i be surprised if he flipped something to beat me, nope. if i could see his cards would i be as surprised to see im miles ahead, not at all.

maybe this i just a case of over-analysis. tank it, if you lose, ho hum. i dont think _I_ could play it differently (other than raising preflop /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

Phill

[Jason Strasser]

I would not reraise to 500 and fold to an all-in, that is pathetic. I'd be very happy to commit preflop with KK here.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Those are wonderful thoughts, but your explanation as to why you think he has this type of hand would be interesting to me.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

SS,

I like your post.

A mini-raise here is a crappy play for fairly obvious reasons with AA. I never do it, and I would be interested to see where you 'test raise' because I really can't think of spots where it makes sense. Your range of hands I think is a little small. Usually with hands like JJ or TT, a massive reraise is put in preflop vs. a small one.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Lorinda,

I expected you to say this. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Strip,

Very solid logic, that is what happened, and it was what I wanted.

I reraised all-in, he called with AA, no help came.

I think I lose my chips here regardless of what happens preflop, but I think a very good player might've taken a different line which may have allowed him to get away from this hand. But if I actually folded this hand, I wouldn't have been able to post it because Lorinda would tell me to stop playing like her. Frankly, I may value overpairs too highly in this game, but it seems to do me well. I'm not sure it would involve reraising KK, as usually against crazy party competition I am delighted to go all-in with KK preflop.

Another interesting point is that these types of flops usually force people to play their hand strong. If I had AA, I also would be tempted to overbet the pot, as it is very possible my opponent has a draw, or a pair (which is drawing against aces) on this board.

And with regards to sfbruin's idea that I could be on a steal, well, let me give you a number. Since the blinds are so low, its hardly worth stealing them. I raise ~4% of hands at this blind level, so you can do the math and figure out the range of hands this involves. A vast majority of the time, my raise at this level represents a good hand.

Thanks for the responses,
-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

ZJ,

Could you actually call this flop and fold to a turn that wasnt an ace or a queen?

-Jason

[lorinda]

It may all come down to how 'good' this player was.

If he was 'good' enough to know that you only raise 4% of the time, then the chances of him having AA go up significantly, however if he's a standard 'good' then it's much more likely he has an AK/JJ hand.

FWIW if the flop is T high rather than Q high I'm much happier playing the hand.

As to the question aimed at ZJ. If I do play this pot, I'm playing it for my whole stack, one way or another, barring an A or Q coming.

Lori

[ThorGoT]

"Wonderful" (thanks!), but wrong. I've looked at results; here was my thinking.

Any non-pocket-pair, except for AK, shouldn't be min-re-raising from the small blind (out of position). No one should be min-re-raising if a re-re-raise would make them want to throw up (credit, Sklansky). So any pocket pair, Jacks or lower, should be content to call and play for the set.

Possible hands left: AA, KK, QQ, AK. KK is unlikely because of your holding, so I in large part discounted it. (Note that I'm not 100% sure whether your holding KK makes AA more or less likely than AK -- I'm assuming they're about equal, as the loss of one king knocks down the probability of AK). The larger than pot-size-bet after the flop, to me, makes QQ unlikely. I would be more inclined to bet the pot, hoping for a call from a drawing hand (and then all-in on the turn, assuming no board and if no three-flush hits) rather than induce an all-in from a drawing hand on the flop, seeking to have two chances to hit rather than one. So that leaves AA and AK. A min-re-raise makes some sense to me with AK, for a player wanting to find out if you have AA or KK -- the only two hands that would re-pop him. If you don't, and an ace or king hits, he knows he has the best hand (well, he *thinks* he has the best hand . . . you tricky devil, you!). By contrast, if I had AA, I wouldn't min-re-raise. The only hand that would come over the top, I think, would be KK -- but KK would call (or go over hte top of) a bigger raise. Anything smaller would just call. But I don't want smaller hands (like a pocket pair) to call, because they have odds to do so (hoping to hit a set) and it's hard to get away from AA post-flop (absent a pair on the board).

Now, post flop, action is consistent with AA. But I think it's also consistent with AK. Odds are that you do not have a pocket pair (there aren't that many pocket pairs you would raise with, and with KK or AA you presumably would have re-popped him preflop), or a queen (one card out of two . . . unlikely). And if you don't, you can't know that he *doesn't* have a queen (and is beating you). So if he bets out (after exhibiting strength pre-flop), you are in a tough position and would fold with most holdings. The greater-than-pot size bet makes him having a four card draw unlikely, IMHO. If he has the ace of clubs, he would be less worried about your going for a draw, so overbetting the pot (when you might have QQ) would be less attractive. So if he has a club, it's likely the king.

Anyway, that was my line of thought. In retrospect, should the greater than pot size bet on the flop suggest AA rather than AK, given the usual rule about not betting with AK when you don't hit your hand? Perhaps, but I think this play would make sense with AK.

[ThorGoT]

Which Aces did he have?

[gergery]

I’d interpret he minraise preflop as a very good hand wanting to see if its up against AA/KK or not. So I’d put him on KK-JJ, AQs+. When he leads at the flop I’d say it definitely a big hand that feels good here, but the overbet says ‘go away’. So I’d guess AK clubs here. Also possible are AA, QQ, and maybe KK, AQ, but then he’s not as good as you think. I can’t see 99 or 33 doing this.

Ok, I looked at the results now – weird. He’s happy to give you great odds to bust him preflop if you were to have KK-88. But want to blow you out on the flop with an overbet, when you are most likely to be drawing to 2 outs with your pair.

--Greg

[durron597]

You are giving the person too much credit. He is trying to build a pot preflop so that Hero may end up feeling he has to stay in with whatever hand he has; he doesn't know that Hero has a PP at all, let alone KK.