01-16-2002, 05:57 PM
Profitable times of the day to play poker
Synopsis: The author reviews the similarities and dissimilarities between a study which he did analyzing which times of the day were the most profiable to play poker(from 1996 to 1998), with a similar study done by author John Fox from 1955 to 1975.
From 1996 to 1998 I performed a study analyzing my hourly big bet win rate when plotted as a function of the hours of the day and the days of the week.
I feel that the results of that study and the application of those findings have significantly increased the amount of monies that I have generated playing poker.
During my on going review of the published books on Poker, I came across a similar study done by John Fox. He described his study and it’s results in his book on draw poker. “Play Poker, Quit Work and Sleep Till Noon”
John’s study was similar to mine with the exception that he also analyzed game profitability as related to days of the month played. And John’s study monitored a 20-year period, (1955 - 1975 in Gardenia California) while mine monitored a two-year period. (1996 - 1998 in Scottsdale Arizona)
There were many similarities in the results of our two studies, but there was also some important dissimilarity.
John Fox dedicated the entire second chapter of his book to reviewing his analysis, and to it‘s implication for profitability.
John’s study showed that in Gardenia the most profitable time of day to play is from 3 am to 6 am. And that the worst time to play is from 7 pm to 11 pm.”
“ The best days do the week are Fridays and Saturdays while the worst periods of the week are Sunday and Monday nights.”
John States that the 3-6 AM period is most profitable because “looser players...stay past their intended leave times and play late ... in general they tend to be poor players...and are fatigued and desperate.
My study showed a similar finding, with the exception that in my study the most productive time to play started earlier, around 11:30 PM. I feel that this variance was caused by the fact that in my study players were able to drink alcohol as they played.
It is my opinion that the player’s alcohol consumption tended to speed up the rate of deterioration of their games.
I also found that another peek period of productivity was located between 1 am and 2 am, which was a reflection of the fact that around this time the serving of alcohol was curtailed.
Statements by players such as “you better make that a double, and please bring back a couple more beers for each of us” seemed to also correlate with game productivity.
There were two periods during the day, (which John did not apparently find) which in my study, demonstrated a significant increase in productivity..
The first was on weekdays from 10 AM to 12 Noon. I play in a community with a higher that usual percentage of affluent retires. It was my observation that many of them would show up at the Casino at around 10 Am.
The Casino would then start opening new tables for these fresh players. All of them would typically start out playing with full racks of chips. Most of them would make their first rebury around 11:30 AM and would have lost their allocated amount of money for the day, and be ready to leave by around 1pm.
Usually by that time I had generated a modest profit. And typically there would be one or two players at the table, who had “gotten lucky” for the day and would be significantly ahead. The vast majority of the remainder of the other player chips had by then been raked away by the house.
From 1 PM till 4:30 PM the games tended to be stone cold and nut tight. My habit was to leave the Casino around noon. Then I would retune to the Casino around 4:15 PM. I would then ask to be assigned to a low limit table next to the scheduling board.
Around 4:30 the workers from the city (that had just gotten off their jobs) would start coming into the Casino. The professional and semiprofessional players refer to this period as the “white shirt” imigration.
Since while doing this study, I had also concurrently been making a study monitoring the average amount of money that each regular player lost per session. Then all that I had to do was to see which waiting list was made up of the weakest players, who also typically averaged loosing the greatest amount of money during per session.
Then when each the table waiting lists had approximately 6 players on it, I would simply go up and add my name to the two lists that should be the most profitable. (You don't want to get on the list too soon, or you may get assigned to one of the still active afternoon tables which by that time would have more “rocks’ sitting at it than “chips” piled on it.
Also I found that it was good to sign up for two tables. That prevented me from getting held up by a delay in getting my game started. And if I had gotten into a game, which for some reason turned out not to be as profitable as I had anticipated, I could always transfer when my second table was called down.
When I first arrived (typically about 15 minutes before the “white shirts”) I would have requested and been placed at a low limit table next to the scheduling board. Then when the Scheduling girls called out the names of the weakest higher limit players to start a new table, I could be assigned to that table since it was at a higher limit game than I was currently playing.
If I had originally been seated at the higher limit game, than was my intended game to play for the night, the scheduling girls couldn’t have assigned me to a start up table at the same limit.
The “after work” players are very similar to the early AM players. They tend to play a tight high quality game for about 20 minutes. Then like there AM cousin’s they switch to their natural loose passive styles.
They also would typically buy in for a full rack. But the “white shirts” tend to play looser. And they tend to make more re-buys. By around 6:30 PM they usually would have lost as much as they had planned to for that day. They would then leave. And since the game typically would then tighten up, I would leave as soon as the game became unprofitable.
I feel that any professional or semi professional player that decides to be a “day player” (one who usually plays between 10 AM and 6 PM) needs to take advantage of the most productive times to play at his Casino. This is especially true since day play tends to be less productive than night play. (But the quality of life tends to be better for the day players.)
Fox’s study showed that 7PM to 11PM were a poor time of day to play, and my study had similar findings.
In John’s study the first of the month was a more lucrative time to play, because of the fact that“ the weak players get their pay and pension checks then.“
I did not notice this variant. But my opponents are typically professionals, affluent retirees, and day workers. And the day workers are now typically paid on a weekly or bimonthly schedule.
Both of our studies showed that as expected Fridays and Saturdays were the most productive days. John’s study showed that Sunday nights were the poorest times of the week for making money.
In my study I found that Sunday afternoons also tended to be less profitable. I feel that by then most players have “played out” their money. Also the Casinos tend to schedule Sunday sports lotteries. Many players seem to go to the card room on Sunday, “just” to get their lottery ticket. Once they have their ticket they tend to play tightly, waiting to see if they will “hit the lottery”
This is the opposite of the Saturday player, who goes to the card room to “gamble.”
Fox’s absolutely most productive playing time was from 6:45 AM to 7AM. Which were the fifteen minutes before his card room closed. And he stated that he felt that “A smart player could make a living playing only those 15 minutes a day, in $10/$20 dollar draw poker games. (That would approximately be equivalent to a $50/$100 dollar limit games now, thanks to inflation.
Like John I agree “that playing at the most productive times of the day against the most productive players is provably more important in making money at the game, than all of the other variables put together.“
If other forum member have noticed specific playing times or playing situations, that tend to be particularly profitable for playing poker, their opinions would be appreciated.
As always any opinions on this post are welcomed.
Most sincerely,
Doc AZ
Synopsis: The author reviews the similarities and dissimilarities between a study which he did analyzing which times of the day were the most profiable to play poker(from 1996 to 1998), with a similar study done by author John Fox from 1955 to 1975.
From 1996 to 1998 I performed a study analyzing my hourly big bet win rate when plotted as a function of the hours of the day and the days of the week.
I feel that the results of that study and the application of those findings have significantly increased the amount of monies that I have generated playing poker.
During my on going review of the published books on Poker, I came across a similar study done by John Fox. He described his study and it’s results in his book on draw poker. “Play Poker, Quit Work and Sleep Till Noon”
John’s study was similar to mine with the exception that he also analyzed game profitability as related to days of the month played. And John’s study monitored a 20-year period, (1955 - 1975 in Gardenia California) while mine monitored a two-year period. (1996 - 1998 in Scottsdale Arizona)
There were many similarities in the results of our two studies, but there was also some important dissimilarity.
John Fox dedicated the entire second chapter of his book to reviewing his analysis, and to it‘s implication for profitability.
John’s study showed that in Gardenia the most profitable time of day to play is from 3 am to 6 am. And that the worst time to play is from 7 pm to 11 pm.”
“ The best days do the week are Fridays and Saturdays while the worst periods of the week are Sunday and Monday nights.”
John States that the 3-6 AM period is most profitable because “looser players...stay past their intended leave times and play late ... in general they tend to be poor players...and are fatigued and desperate.
My study showed a similar finding, with the exception that in my study the most productive time to play started earlier, around 11:30 PM. I feel that this variance was caused by the fact that in my study players were able to drink alcohol as they played.
It is my opinion that the player’s alcohol consumption tended to speed up the rate of deterioration of their games.
I also found that another peek period of productivity was located between 1 am and 2 am, which was a reflection of the fact that around this time the serving of alcohol was curtailed.
Statements by players such as “you better make that a double, and please bring back a couple more beers for each of us” seemed to also correlate with game productivity.
There were two periods during the day, (which John did not apparently find) which in my study, demonstrated a significant increase in productivity..
The first was on weekdays from 10 AM to 12 Noon. I play in a community with a higher that usual percentage of affluent retires. It was my observation that many of them would show up at the Casino at around 10 Am.
The Casino would then start opening new tables for these fresh players. All of them would typically start out playing with full racks of chips. Most of them would make their first rebury around 11:30 AM and would have lost their allocated amount of money for the day, and be ready to leave by around 1pm.
Usually by that time I had generated a modest profit. And typically there would be one or two players at the table, who had “gotten lucky” for the day and would be significantly ahead. The vast majority of the remainder of the other player chips had by then been raked away by the house.
From 1 PM till 4:30 PM the games tended to be stone cold and nut tight. My habit was to leave the Casino around noon. Then I would retune to the Casino around 4:15 PM. I would then ask to be assigned to a low limit table next to the scheduling board.
Around 4:30 the workers from the city (that had just gotten off their jobs) would start coming into the Casino. The professional and semiprofessional players refer to this period as the “white shirt” imigration.
Since while doing this study, I had also concurrently been making a study monitoring the average amount of money that each regular player lost per session. Then all that I had to do was to see which waiting list was made up of the weakest players, who also typically averaged loosing the greatest amount of money during per session.
Then when each the table waiting lists had approximately 6 players on it, I would simply go up and add my name to the two lists that should be the most profitable. (You don't want to get on the list too soon, or you may get assigned to one of the still active afternoon tables which by that time would have more “rocks’ sitting at it than “chips” piled on it.
Also I found that it was good to sign up for two tables. That prevented me from getting held up by a delay in getting my game started. And if I had gotten into a game, which for some reason turned out not to be as profitable as I had anticipated, I could always transfer when my second table was called down.
When I first arrived (typically about 15 minutes before the “white shirts”) I would have requested and been placed at a low limit table next to the scheduling board. Then when the Scheduling girls called out the names of the weakest higher limit players to start a new table, I could be assigned to that table since it was at a higher limit game than I was currently playing.
If I had originally been seated at the higher limit game, than was my intended game to play for the night, the scheduling girls couldn’t have assigned me to a start up table at the same limit.
The “after work” players are very similar to the early AM players. They tend to play a tight high quality game for about 20 minutes. Then like there AM cousin’s they switch to their natural loose passive styles.
They also would typically buy in for a full rack. But the “white shirts” tend to play looser. And they tend to make more re-buys. By around 6:30 PM they usually would have lost as much as they had planned to for that day. They would then leave. And since the game typically would then tighten up, I would leave as soon as the game became unprofitable.
I feel that any professional or semi professional player that decides to be a “day player” (one who usually plays between 10 AM and 6 PM) needs to take advantage of the most productive times to play at his Casino. This is especially true since day play tends to be less productive than night play. (But the quality of life tends to be better for the day players.)
Fox’s study showed that 7PM to 11PM were a poor time of day to play, and my study had similar findings.
In John’s study the first of the month was a more lucrative time to play, because of the fact that“ the weak players get their pay and pension checks then.“
I did not notice this variant. But my opponents are typically professionals, affluent retirees, and day workers. And the day workers are now typically paid on a weekly or bimonthly schedule.
Both of our studies showed that as expected Fridays and Saturdays were the most productive days. John’s study showed that Sunday nights were the poorest times of the week for making money.
In my study I found that Sunday afternoons also tended to be less profitable. I feel that by then most players have “played out” their money. Also the Casinos tend to schedule Sunday sports lotteries. Many players seem to go to the card room on Sunday, “just” to get their lottery ticket. Once they have their ticket they tend to play tightly, waiting to see if they will “hit the lottery”
This is the opposite of the Saturday player, who goes to the card room to “gamble.”
Fox’s absolutely most productive playing time was from 6:45 AM to 7AM. Which were the fifteen minutes before his card room closed. And he stated that he felt that “A smart player could make a living playing only those 15 minutes a day, in $10/$20 dollar draw poker games. (That would approximately be equivalent to a $50/$100 dollar limit games now, thanks to inflation.
Like John I agree “that playing at the most productive times of the day against the most productive players is provably more important in making money at the game, than all of the other variables put together.“
If other forum member have noticed specific playing times or playing situations, that tend to be particularly profitable for playing poker, their opinions would be appreciated.
As always any opinions on this post are welcomed.
Most sincerely,
Doc AZ