Bet this River 4-flush?

[naphand]

TABLE CONDITIONS:

The table has 3 tight/passive players (Button, SB, UTG), a LAG (BB) and "Fosbury Flop" in CO who is quite loose (V$IP 32%) and aggressive, has a habit of calling raises PF with weak holdings (any PP, any suited broadway) for just one more bet. A limp means a weak hand. Post-flop can be tricky, and rarely folds anything showdownable. So named due to his tendency bend-over backwards calling raises PF, and call down with some pretty scratchy draws.


UltimateBet $2/$4 6-max

Pre-flop: Naphand has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG folds, MP (Fosbury Flop ) calls, Naphand raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, Fosbury Flop calls.

Flop (6 SB): 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, Fosbury Flop checks, Naphand bets, BB calls, Fosbury Flop calls.

Turn (9 SB): 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, Fosbury Flop checks, Naphand bets, BB folds, Fosbury Flop calls.

River (6.5 BB): J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Fosbury Flop checks, Naphand checks.


I know his hand is weak, he will fold pretty much everything I beat with the possible exception of a weak 9 (I would have expected a raise at some point, as he wont put me on a 9 due to the PF raise). He will never fold a /images/graemlins/heart.gif and could easily CR me here.

Is there value in this River bet, based on my read? I could not see it, though I hated the check behind, as I was giving up.

[MAxx]

I would bet river unless he is tricky enough to c/r w/out a heart. If he is not tricky enough to c/r river w/o a heart, I would then bet river and fold to a raise.

[fyodor]

For what it's worth I check behind here as well. Just played a hand like this myself. I remebered your post when it came up at my table and I thought to myself 'I just don't think it's worth it.' Turned out he never had the flush and my pair was good. With what he had I am pretty sure he would have just folded to a bet.

I'm not saying I'm right here; I'm just saying that's the way I play it too. Given irrefutable mathematical evidence I could be convinced to change my mind for the future.