(13th) nut flush draw hand

[Nate tha' Great]

Party 15/30. LAG open-raises in UTG and another LAG 3-bets in EMP. Cold call from a horrible player in MP. SB calls and I call in the BB with 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Flop K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Checked to EMP who bets, MP and SB fold, I call, as does UTG.

Turn K /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I check and it is checked around.

River 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

I check, intending to call.

[nummerfire]

If you intend to call why not bet instead. Maybe someone will fold a small diamond. You can fold if raised.

Kim

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
If you intend to call why not bet instead. Maybe someone will fold a small diamond. You can fold if raised.

Kim

[/ QUOTE ]

The chance that an ace or a king or nothing at all will bet the river is far greater than someone folding a small diamond. Also the pot is big and seeing a showdown is important.

Nate, would you overcall in this spot?

[DrGutshot]

[ QUOTE ]
If you intend to call why not bet instead. Maybe someone will fold a small diamond. You can fold if raised.

Kim

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you really give the LAG and "Horrible player" credit for never bluff-raising this river? I like the check/call better that way you can get one of them to bluff the river.

However...I fold the flop...

-DrG

[skp]

The play would be sexier had you bet the river but your line is fine.

Louie Landale posted a pocket ducks hand several years ago that has stuck with me. He was in the bb. sb raised. Utg limpreraised. sb capped. Louie put them on the boss hands i.e. AA and KK. Flop was AK5 all diamonds or whatever and Louie had the deuce of diamonds. He called all bets on the flop and turn and then bet the river when a Diamond hit...heh...nothing like putting two guys on mega tilt at the same time.

[Coilean]

I think you should consider check raising the flop after it comes back to you with the opportunity to get it heads up, at least if you think there's some chance UTG can fold something like 99/KQ or a mid-small diamond. It's obviously a huge coup if you get UTG out with something like 9x9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (although that should be rare enough that it won't make a raise worthwhile by itself), and it at least puts him in a very uncomfortable situation if he has you beat with less than an ace or holds a medium diamond. Given your holding, heads up is way better than 3-way, particularly if the EMP might be willing to give up an unimproved diamondless pocket pair on the turn should you succeed in getting it heads up with a flop raise, and then bet the turn.

(P.S.: It's the 10th nut flush draw. Sorry, but I couldn't resist pointing it out. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[elindauer]

Hi Nate,

Heads up, I like the play. You're probably either ahead or have a good draw, you just show it down either way. With UTG still in the hand, I think the pot is big enough that you should raise the flop and try to get heads up. You don't want a middle diamond hanging around and screwing up your play.


Good luck.
Eric

[Stork]

Would it be so horrible to fold the flop here?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate, would you overcall in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he would.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Nate,

I like everything except the river.

GoT

[brick]

Would it be so horrible to fold pre-flop here?
Would it be so horrible to fold the flop here?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be so horrible to fold pre-flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh, I think the preflop call is definitely +EV. I'm getting 2:13 or about 1:6.5. I won't flop a set quite that often, but at least three of my opponents were pretty bad so I think I do pretty well for myself in terms of implied odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be so horrible to fold the flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought there was about a 40% chance that a flush card would give me the best hand maybe a 2/3 chance that a duece would give me the best hand. That works out to around 5 outs, which is an easy call getting 16:1.

[Stork]

I wouldn't be able to give the diamond any outs value... it seems you'll run into any other diamond alot more than you won't in this situation. Yes spiking a 2 will give you the probable best hand, but for a better diamond than you theres still redraw possibility to hit on the river so I think you're odds are much worse than they appear.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be able to give the diamond any outs value... it seems you'll run into any other diamond alot more than you won't in this situation. Yes spiking a 2 will give you the probable best hand, but for a better diamond than you theres still redraw possibility to hit on the river so I think you're odds are much worse than they appear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it really all that impossible that I have the only diamond remaining? Two players have folded already, and and the fact that both the A and K of trump are on the board make it somewhat less likely that other folks have diamonds.

[Stork]

Yes, you could have the only other diamond, and the turn action supports that as well. You're probably right. I still would've folded the flop though. But I guess that's why you're a professional and I'm just a low-stakes schmuck.

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought there was about a 40% chance that a flush card would give me the best hand maybe a 2/3 chance that a duece would give me the best hand. That works out to around 5 outs, which is an easy call getting 16:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm used to seeing out estimates constantly fudged in posts like these after the fact to justify terrible calls. I wasn't a fan originally, but I think your estimates are completely reasonable and I'm convinced.

You post good.

[1800GAMBLER]

As per usual. Bet the river.