Folding When I should have raised?

[slaman]

First of all, I apologize for this format. I know that I could have won this pot by betting the river strongly. Instead, I thought and thought, and then folded. Should I have raised? If so, to what? The guy didn't have the eight he said...

#Game No : 1082787202
***** Hand History for Game 1082787202 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Wednesday, October 20, 23:36:19 EDT 2004
Table Goosebumps (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: jrbeeve2 ( $48.91 )
Seat 3: gelder44 ( $47.65 )
Seat 4: UMPokerGuy ( $40.9 )
Seat 8: Ninjea ( $67.61 )
Seat 10: mp_all_in ( $22.75 )
Seat 5: PokerSlaman ( $108.15 )
Seat 7: high_roland ( $50 )
Seat 6: TomThumb30 ( $25.4 )
Seat 2: OnePutt2003 ( $47.7 )
Seat 9: rgregman ( $50 )
mp_all_in posts small blind [$0.5].
jrbeeve2 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PokerSlaman [ Jd Td ]
OnePutt2003 calls [$1].
gelder44 calls [$1].
UMPokerGuy folds.
PokerSlaman calls [$1].
TomThumb30 folds.
high_roland folds.
Ninjea folds.
mp_all_in folds.
jrbeeve2 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 2d, 4h ]
jrbeeve2 checks.
OnePutt2003 checks.
gelder44 checks.
PokerSlaman bets [$1].
jrbeeve2 folds.
OnePutt2003 calls [$1].
gelder44 calls [$1].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
OnePutt2003 checks.
gelder44 checks.
PokerSlaman bets [$3].
OnePutt2003 calls [$3].
gelder44 folds.
** Dealing River ** [ 8h ]
OnePutt2003 bets [$5].
PokerSlaman folds.
OnePutt2003 does not show cards.
OnePutt2003 wins $17.85
you have that eight?

[slaman]

Follow-up...

One on one again with the same person - except this time he actually had top-pair - I bet strong on the river... he thought and called.

[amoeba]

Unless if you have a really good read on him, I would fold the river. You would have to guarantee that 1) he did not have the 8 and was valuebetting 2) he would lay down his K to your river raise.

In order for your river raise bluff to be effective. It probably can't be a min raise which means you probably have to raise $10 + . Being that you can't insure the previous 2 conditions, $10+ is a bit much to commit for a pure bluff.

[slaman]

Thanks for the reply - I know this is my major weakness... I can't seem to let a hand go when I have a decent amount of money in the pot. Or if I don't make it...

Any thoughts on semi-bluffing? Drawing for a flush on the flop - bet half the pot and get one caller... Blank on turn, do I semi-bluff again to get him to fold? Do I check and call? Do I check and fold? What if he's drawing as well... I'd say 50% of the time I semi-bluff heads up, the person will fold after my bet on the turn even though I have nothing...

Is it worth the risk? Or will I get raised/called down by good players? What type of players does this usually work on?

[amoeba]

Semibluff on the flop is fine. Semibluff on turn is only worth it when you have a lot of folding equity, in other words, when you believe hes also on flush draw or he has something like second pair.

[Mikey2k4]

How much should he semi-bluff for on the flop?

In this example, he's betting $1 after three checkers in position into a $4.50 pot. I'm thinking that betting even half the pot would make a couple of people fold as well as getting more information. (Given his overcards, runner-runner straight, and overcards, I'd personally probably bet $4 into a $4.50 pot.)

Having made a larger semi-bluff would increase the pot and may reduce your likelihood of firing a second bullet on the turn, however. (Although if you fire another $4 bullet into the now $12 pot, you may make the guy holding the 8 fold since the K looks scarier now.)

Those are my thoughts - I'm still learning this darn thing, though.

[Zag]

Part of the reason to make a smallish semi-bluff on the flop when you have position is to get them to check to you on the turn, so you can check behind and get a free river. Then you didn't.

If you plan to fire two shots, then you have to be a little more realistic that you have something like a set. Would you have made these bets with a set? I suspect that you would have bet more. I like the fold on the end. You've got nothing and he isn't likely to fold. He could be bluffing, but it is kind of an insane bluff, because you bet the whole way.

Unless, of course, you only make this betting pattern with semi-bluffs, and he knows he can take it from you now.

[amoeba]

I agree, I would have just checked through the turn.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the reply - I know this is my major weakness... I can't seem to let a hand go when I have a decent amount of money in the pot. Or if I don't make it...

Any thoughts on semi-bluffing? Drawing for a flush on the flop - bet half the pot and get one caller... Blank on turn, do I semi-bluff again to get him to fold? Do I check and call? Do I check and fold? What if he's drawing as well... I'd say 50% of the time I semi-bluff heads up, the person will fold after my bet on the turn even though I have nothing...

Is it worth the risk? Or will I get raised/called down by good players? What type of players does this usually work on?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. If the money is in the pot, it is no longer yours. I had / have the same problem, (moreso in my attachment to my blind) so if you get to the river and you cant win, only bluff raise if it works mathematically. If it's a losing play, dont feel compelled to throw bad money after good.

2. Concerning following up a semibluff on the turn, I dont think this was a great spot for it. Against a thinking player, if you bet the flop, (indicating perhaps Top Pair or maybe something like a middle OP, such as 9s-no raise preflop) the king is a bit of a scare card. (Furthermore, I dont feel a raise works because he led into you on the river when the 8 paired... You had bet the whole way through, so this was unusual) If I chose to semibluff the turn I think the bet of 3 was OK. If he folds 50% of the time then you're doing fine.

Does it work, you say? YOU said it worked 50% of the time, so it's a winning play. (Risking 3 to win 4; and 15% of the other 50% you win a bigger pot) The best players to keep hammering are weak tighties.