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Nate tha' Great
10-20-2004, 09:25 PM
FWIW I have a little model that predicts baseball outcomes based on the score after a given inning. It accounts both for the quality of each offense and the quality of opposing pitching.

As of the middle of the 2nd, the model places the Red Sox odds of winning the game are about 86.5%. This accounts for the fact that Derek Lowe sucks.

Update: Sox up to 89.9% after the Yanks go scoreless in the second.

lorinda
10-20-2004, 09:35 PM
You can buy at 87 at Wsex.

Lori

Nate tha' Great
10-20-2004, 09:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You can buy at 87 at Wsex.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't bet sports, ironically.

lorinda
10-20-2004, 09:42 PM
It may be interesting to compare at the end of each inning, see how the model ties in with the punting.

I'll use middle numbers rather than available, so the 87 would be 85.

Lori

Nate tha' Great
10-20-2004, 09:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It may be interesting to compare at the end of each inning, see how the model ties in with the punting.

I'll use middle numbers rather than available, so the 87 would be 85.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll post updates here if I'm around.

lorinda
10-20-2004, 09:48 PM
85, end of three.

Edit: Just crept up to 86, which seems strange to me.

Lori

jerome baker
10-20-2004, 09:49 PM
u trade baseball on wsex lorinda?

lorinda
10-20-2004, 09:50 PM
Very light and very occasionally, I use betfair more often than anything, there are some genuine mugs there :P

Lori

Nate tha' Great
10-20-2004, 09:50 PM
I'm showing Sox 89.4% / Yanks 10.6% after 3. Scoring one run doesn't help all that much; Yanks need a big inning.

Also tweaked somewhat to account for use of top-tier relief pitchers in the 8th/9th for both teams. However I'm discounting this somewhat because of fatigue, especially for the Sox bullpen.

jerome baker
10-20-2004, 09:52 PM
what are mugs/
btw, how's the spread on betfair.

lorinda
10-20-2004, 09:55 PM
mugs = fish (Its an exchange)

I'm having trouble connecting there tonight, so I don't know what the line is at /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Lori

Nate tha' Great
10-20-2004, 10:18 PM
Sox 96.9 Yankees 3.1

Nate tha' Great
10-20-2004, 10:47 PM
Sox 99.0% / Yankees 1.0%

This will be the last update unless the Yanks put up a fight.