AJo sb

[BottlesOf]

new to the table

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 8.50 BB, won by UTG+1.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to UTG+1.</font>

[bakku]

This looks fine to me. Were you planning on folding to any river blank or was it the club that sealed the deal?

[private joker]

See, this looks pretty good to me and it's a good argument for your raising AJo preflop. You were short handed and got one more fold. In an unraised preflop, a weak king might call you down and show you a better hand. I often just complete with AJo because of my lousy relative position. But I agree with all of your play post-flop.

[BottlesOf]

Basically any blank, the 3rd club confirmed it in my mind though.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

looks good to me.

oh yea, checkraise the river if you improve.

[sthief09]

I'd fold the turn, even though I have some outs. I don't know what they are and the implied odds are negative because sometimes you'll call with a worse hand and sometimes you'll check with the best hand and he'll check behind.

FWIW I think he's full of it, or he caught a flush. you don't see that many value bets with the 3-flush on the river, even though it came backdoor, so he either has 2 pair or better, or nothing.

[sthief09]

you can't check-raise with aces-up (puts 4 to a straight out), you can't check raise if you make a straight (he might not bet). that leaves the J, and even then he might not be unless he ahs you beat.

[BottlesOf]

You saw I turned a gutshot too?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
You saw I turned a gutshot too?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[MoreWineII]

Nobody else said it so I must be crazy, but you don't think you're good here often enough to make this river call for one bet?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

the beauty about checkraising the river is that you can fold to a 3-bet on this board. it really depends on how likely this dude is going to value bet.

JT or KT are more likely hands than KQ, IMO, so I don't neccessarily fear the straight if I make aces up. however, I suppose the typical 5/10 player won't value bet if any of those scary cards come. so you're probably right.

[sfer]

I'm done on the turn too.

[BottlesOf]

When he raises on the turn and I'm forced to act:

How many outs do you give my 2 J's? 4 Q's? 3 A's?

Adjust each rank's outs to take reverse implied odds into account.


Thank you.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm done on the turn too.

[/ QUOTE ]


does this mean we aren't LAGs anymore?

[sthief09]

KQ is looking pretty probable.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
does this mean we aren't LAGs anymore?

[/ QUOTE ]


Shhhhhh!

[sthief09]

pot is 7.5 BB. it's 1 BB to call.

let's say you win 80% with your 2 J's. you bet and 80% of the time you win 1 BB and 20% you lose 2. so you have .4 BB worth of implied odds. so 2/46 you will win 80% of the pot and another .4 BB

4 Q's, let's say you chop only 10% of the time (this might be a bit high, but it shouldn't affect the numbers much). 10% of the time your implied odds are 0, and 90% of the time let's say you win .9 BB (he calls 9/10 of the time). so you win 95% of the pot plus .9 on the river 4/46 times.

3 A's are good say 60% of the time. when you're ahead it'll usually go check-check, 90% of the time, and when you're behind, it'll go check-bet-call. so you implied odds are (1)(.6)(.1) - (1)(.4)(1) = -.34 BB, so 3/46 you win 60% of the pot -.34 BB.

EV = (-1)(37/46) + (7.5)(.8)(2/46) + .4 + (7.5)(.95)(4/46) + .9 + (7.5)(.6)(3/46) - .34 = +1.33 BB


ok so it's an easy call /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
ok so it's an easy call /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

See, playing intuitively like a LAG is usually best. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
pot is 7.5 BB. it's 1 BB to call.

let's say you win 80% with your 2 J's. you bet and 80% of the time you win 1 BB and 20% you lose 2. so you have .4 BB worth of implied odds. so 2/46 you will win 80% of the pot and another .4 BB

4 Q's, let's say you chop only 10% of the time (this might be a bit high, but it shouldn't affect the numbers much). 10% of the time your implied odds are 0, and 90% of the time let's say you win .9 BB (he calls 9/10 of the time). so you win 95% of the pot plus .9 on the river 4/46 times.

3 A's are good say 60% of the time. when you're ahead it'll usually go check-check, 90% of the time, and when you're behind, it'll go check-bet-call. so you implied odds are (1)(.6)(.1) - (1)(.4)(1) = -.34 BB, so 3/46 you win 60% of the pot -.34 BB.

EV = (-1)(37/46) + (7.5)(.8)(2/46) + .4 + (7.5)(.95)(4/46) + .9 + (7.5)(.6)(3/46) - .34 = +1.33 BB


ok so it's an easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone actually do this in their head on the spot?

[BottlesOf]

I love when people ask this.

On one hand, Of course not, these calcuclations cannot possibly be done in the head instantaneously.

On the other hand, this is essentially what all poker playing seeks to approximate.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pot is 7.5 BB. it's 1 BB to call.

let's say you win 80% with your 2 J's. you bet and 80% of the time you win 1 BB and 20% you lose 2. so you have .4 BB worth of implied odds. so 2/46 you will win 80% of the pot and another .4 BB

4 Q's, let's say you chop only 10% of the time (this might be a bit high, but it shouldn't affect the numbers much). 10% of the time your implied odds are 0, and 90% of the time let's say you win .9 BB (he calls 9/10 of the time). so you win 95% of the pot plus .9 on the river 4/46 times.

3 A's are good say 60% of the time. when you're ahead it'll usually go check-check, 90% of the time, and when you're behind, it'll go check-bet-call. so you implied odds are (1)(.6)(.1) - (1)(.4)(1) = -.34 BB, so 3/46 you win 60% of the pot -.34 BB.

EV = (-1)(37/46) + (7.5)(.8)(2/46) + .4 + (7.5)(.95)(4/46) + .9 + (7.5)(.6)(3/46) - .34 = +1.33 BB


ok so it's an easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone actually do this in their head on the spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only Nate tha' Great.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone actually do this in their head on the spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course. It's only hard when I'm rushing to finish my vector calculus homework while in a tough turn spot like this one.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone actually do this in their head on the spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

not to this detailed extent, but most people give themselves rough estimates of outs based on what your opponent is likely holding and the pot size, which is really all you need to know when you're on the spot.

[sthief09]

well that's why we do our homework away from the table...

but at the table you could just estimate my outs, throwing in a bit for implied odds. I'd think that I have 2 clean J outs, 4 clean Q outs, minus a bit, plus 1.5 A outs, so something like 7 outs. 46 cards in the deck, so I'm 39-7 or 5.5-1 to hit. there are 7.5 BB in the pot so it's a good call.

I don't know why the call looks so bad to me. I just overesimated the reverse implied odds.