JTs in MP. Flop Decision.

[bisonbison]

MP2 is a lag. in 20 hands, MP3 has seen two flops and has raised preflop once.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Button folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls...

[Trix]

I like. better tens fold, he will prolly bet worse hands all the way.

[Monty Cantsin]

I don't love the flop call.

EDIT: I have a strange feeling you're going to pick up a flush draw on the turn...

/mc

[sthief09]

the LAG could 3-bet. let's say you're facing 2.25 SB on the flop (the LAG 3-bets 25% of the time). you're getting ~16-2.25, or about 7-1 on your call, which means you'd need about 6 outs to peel, assuming you don't have the best hand. you have 1.5 flush outs, and maybe .75 straight out, so you need 3.75 of your 5 straight outs. since you'll get to draw to your straight or possibly outs when you turn a flush draw, I think you can call here, though at first glace I'll admit I thought it was a really loose call.

unimproved I muck the turn without hesitation. also, it might be worth 3-betting the flop if you feel you might have the best hand, because depending on the turn, you can choose to take a free card, or a free showdown on the river.

[Nate tha' Great]

Fold.

[JDErickson]

I think I fold here

[sthief09]

please explain, if you get a spare minute

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
please explain, if you get a spare minute

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got second pair with a bad kicker, some runner runner draws, are facing two bets, and aren't closing the action.

[sthief09]

I guess it depends how often you think he'll get 3-bet behind him. I suggested 25% of the time, and it seemed like he had odds to draw based on that.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess it depends how often you think he'll get 3-bet behind him. I suggested 25% of the time, and it seemed like he had odds to draw based on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many outs are you giving us here?

I'd count 2 Jacks for about 1.8 outs, three tens for about 1.5 outs, and maybe 2 more for runner-runner draws. That's 5.3 outs. Getting 7-1, that's a slightly -EV call. If it gets 3-bet and/or capped, it's a substantially -EV call.

[jtr]

I would fold as I don't think there are enough outs once we discount them realistically: Nate has spelled it out better than I can. However, it's an awful lot closer than it looks at first sight -- interesting hand. I admit that in the heat of 4-tabling I would probably fold this without thinking too long about it, and that means I'd probably fold in some similar, slightly favourable EV situations, so thanks for the wake-up call.

On second thoughts I am wondering whether you can make an implied odds argument about this one. Hmm. You're folding on the turn unimproved, right? I wonder if you're "allowed" to count a few future bets towards your implied odds given that you'll often be giving it up on the turn, after 2.25 more small bets. Was that part of your thinking?

[sthief09]

if he turns a diamond he gets another crack at those 3.3 pair outs. is that worth anything?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
if he turns a diamond he gets another crack at those 3.3 pair outs. is that worth anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's worth something but not enough to continue here IMHO.

[Monty Cantsin]

Trust me, he turns a diamond.

/mc

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
also, it might be worth 3-betting the flop if you feel you might have the best hand, because depending on the turn, you can choose to take a free card, or a free showdown on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are suggesting check-threebetting this flop with MP/blah kicker/two backdoor draws into a LAG and a tighty raiser in part so that you can try to get a free card/showdown out of position? This sound like chipspewing and wishful thinking rolled together.

[sthief09]

if

[chesspain]

Well, I guess I don't see myself having the best hand here very often, because like Nate, my initial reaction was simply to fold.

In addition, if you only check-threebet when you think you likely have the best hand, then why would you want to take a free card on the turn? And checkcalling the river wouldn't seem right on this kind of a board--or would you be planning to checkfold the river unimproved if your flop check-threebet and turn bet were called?

[adanthar]

When MP3 cold calls, I instantly hate my hand.

When he raises the flop, I'm getting 2:15.33 (worse if MP2 reraises) to spike a 0-5 outer and turbofold.

[crockett]

To me this is usually an easy decision but I have to be actually sitting at the table (computer) to make it.

SSH taught us all that on pure odds this is a cold call. 3 T's, 2 J's, backdoor flush, backdoor one-gap str8 draw (I know, I know, weak but it is mentioned in the book). Get out your calculator, discount the odds however you wish and I think in the end most will agree that on pure outs you have it. Assumming your part of the Ed Miller cult.

Of course the two wrenches thrown in the mix are calling two cold and the fact that you have a LAG to act yet. And that last sentence is the key to my decision. What kind LAG? If I'm fairly confident he won't raise the majority of the time then for me it's an easy call. Otherwise I fold.

[ecooke]

Agreed. Although, even though I'm a card holding memeber of the Ed Miller fan club, I discount that single card backdoor straight draw to no more than a half an out.

[Monty Cantsin]

What happened?

/mc

[StellarWind]

The math on your outs looks pretty close once you take appropriate discounts, add back implied odds, and shell out for some 3-bets and caps.

The problem here is MP3. There is a very good chance you have found the scariest thing in poker: a tight/passive who loves his hand. There is no flush draw on this board. He's not afraid of the PFR. You are going to see a set much more often than you expect. There just aren't too many other tight coldcalls that fit very well with this board against a PFR.

I fold.

[Joe Tall]

I don't like your position on the preflop call but it's only a spot or two from where I'm real comfortable but I play in much more aggressive games.

You have a clear flop fold. I'm going to be watching you as you flop play is out of gear at the moment from the last two posts.

Go Sox!
-JT

[BaronVonCP]

seems like an easy fold. but i'm goofy. sure you can try squeezing some outs into it to try and get it close, but your 2 pair outs may or may not be good. there is a small chance your trip outs aren't any good. The chance you are ahead are close to nothing.

the only way you get to put a lot of bets in later is if you runner runner something.

its late and I hate english