46s in the BB...river question

[gonores]

Party 10/20, 5 handed. I've been a little extra aggro at this table.

UTG open raises. UTG is too loose, but is very reasonable with her aggression. Her raise here can easily mean Kx where x = paint.

Folded to SB. I have a written note on the SB that he LOVES to raise turns. I have 4h6h and call in the BB...argue it all you want...I like the idea of going 3 bets on the turn with a big hand.


Flop: Ah 6d 2h

Checked to me, I bet, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: Ac

I bet, UTG calls

River: Ad

Can Dougie-aggro cash in on a value bet here, or should we take precaution? What if we get punched with a raise?

[fsuplayer]

bet this you will be called by Kx alot i think.

i would prob call the river raise, but my curiosity kills me sometimes. this would be one of those times.

[Turkish]

I'm not so sure about that. I think the villian will more likely bluff at this with K high than call you down with it. An ace is obviously not all that probable but 77-JJ is. I would check call and hope I induced a bluff.

[Danenania]

Would Kx have called the turn? That top card pairing seems like it would scare her off. I suppose Kx of hearts is a possibility, but moreso than 77-JJ? She also might bet that Kx of hearts if you check to her, which makes up a bit for when she checks behind.

[Nate tha' Great]

If she's calling down the whole way with Kx, she'll call the river too. This is a *great* river card for a KQ that's trying to pick off a missed draw. I'd bet and begruginly call a raies.

[Danenania]

I guess it just depends on how loose she is postflop. She'd have to be pretty loose to call down with unpaired undercards here (worse than just "too loose" i'd think), but if she is that loose then a river bet is required.

[fsuplayer]

uppose Kx of hearts is a possibility, but moreso than 77-JJ

this is getting raised the majority of the time well before the river.

[Danenania]

Yeah, good point. Makes it less of a possibility.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
KQ that's trying to pick off a missed draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this the only hand we could put her on that we beat?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]

Would Kx have called the turn? That top card pairing seems like it would scare her off. I suppose Kx of hearts is a possibility, but moreso than 77-JJ? She also might bet that Kx of hearts if you check to her, which makes up a bit for when she checks behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the opponent knows Doug's style well, she'll be skeptical about his playing an ace this way on the flop. She thinks he probably has either a flush draw or maybe a 6. The turn card doesn't change her calculation any - in fact now it's less likely still that Doug has an A. So she calls again, planning to call a non-flush river.

Granted, it's somewhat more likely that she has a pocket pair than Kx. But just because Doug is probably behind doesn't mean that he shouldn't bet. KQ is more likely to call here than it is to bet for itself.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KQ that's trying to pick off a missed draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this the only hand we could put her on that we beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

KJ, KT etc also. If she's rationalized a calldown up to this point, I don't think she's terribly worried about the quality of the x part of her AAAKx board. There's also a chance that she has something like QJ of hearts, or had decided to get cute preflop with a hand like 76s.

[Turkish]

Our hero said that Kx here is "possible." I would argue that this means her range of raising hands is very wide, rather than just putting her on Kx because she is capable of raising with it.

[joker122]

What I meant was, the only hand we can put her on that we like is one that is trying to snap a semi bluff? Seems like we're assuming alot.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
What I meant was, the only hand we can put her on that we like is one that is trying to snap a semi bluff? Seems like we're assuming alot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I think she probably has a pocket pair. However that doesn't mean that Doug shouldn't bet.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
No I think she probably has a pocket pair. However that doesn't mean that Doug shouldn't bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

55-33?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Our hero said that Kx here is "possible." I would argue that this means her range of raising hands is very wide, rather than just putting her on Kx because she is capable of raising with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that Doug said that her range of raising hands was especially wide. He described her level of aggression as "reasonable". KJo, KTo are reasonable raises in this game.

It may well be the case that Doug was simply trying to set some sort of benchmark for her level of preflop LAGness, and the possibility of her holding K-paint and playing it this way on this board isn't real high. However a good player can construct a reasonable arguemnt for calling down with K-high here, so I'm sure that a loose, medicore player can too.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]

No I think she probably has a pocket pair. However that doesn't mean that Doug shouldn't bet.



55-33?

[/ QUOTE ]


TOP stuff. if you are planning on calling a bet anways, you should bet.

unless of course the risk of raising or having him bluff when you check is high, but there is no evidence at all that this is true.

i cant imagine too many hands w/o an ace that would all of a sudden come to life after not raising the flop or turn.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
TOP stuff. if you are planning on calling a bet anways, you should bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This applies when your hand has little showdown value and you might fold a better hand. Such is not the case here.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No I think she probably has a pocket pair. However that doesn't mean that Doug shouldn't bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

55-33?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh I think those are some of the less likely hands. The range of hands that she likely puts Doug on is drawing a lot more live against 55 than it is against say JJ, so I think she either gives up and folds right away or maybe tries to represent the A by raising the flop.

[Danenania]

Well, if villain will call with more hands than he will bet when you are ahead, and you plan on calling a bet if you check to him, then you should bet. You make more this way.

[gonores]

I bet and got called.

Aces full of sixes good. She had KJ.

I could write my thoughts, or I could copy/paste Nate's responses. However, I shant do either.

[gonores]

After the hand, she wrote:

"I knew you had hearts"