Chip Value

[Cheeseweasel]

I'm a rank newbie. I've been playing poker for less than three months. I've gravitated towards the NLHE SNG STT's at Party Poker since, in my limited experience, they seem to offer me the best EV and the lowest variance.
I would greatly appreciate comments on the following scenario. It is the first round of an NLHE SNG STT. I am in the big blind with KTs. There are two limpers behind me. I would most likely go all-in for the following reasons:
1) The binomial probability is .80 that my hand is better than both of the limpers.
2) From my limited experience, the probability is about .40 that one or both of the limpers will call my all-in.
Therefore, this appears to me to be a potentially high probability, high EV course of action.
However, in Mr. Sklansky's superb book Tournament Poker, he states that chips in the early part of a tournament are worth more than chips in the later part of a tournament. However, I would be audacious enough to respectfully disagree for the following reasons:
1) In light of hourly rate considerations, if I am going to be eliminated, I would rather be eliminated sooner than later so that I can start another tournament.
2) Using the example of a $20+$2 Party Poker 10-player SNG STT, each player gets 800 Tchip at the beginning of the tournament. The total prize money is $200 (1st-$100, 2nd-$60, 3rd-$40). Therefore, the initial 800 chips are worth $200/10 players=$20. $20/800 chips=$.025 per Tchip. Let's say that there are five players remaining in the tournament, each with an average 1600 Tchips. $200/5 players=$40. $40/1600 chips=$.025 per Tchip.

Please show me the error of my ways. Thank you for taking the time to read and respond to this missive.

[DONTUSETHIS]

Your Math seems fine and I think of it as a double edge sword kind of thing. In a tourney if you accumulate more chips early you can make more plays later and put more pressure on people, but I dont think that it should mean that you should push every small edge you think you have. You do not want to let yourself get down so low that in the end it makes it profitable for others to call you with almost any two cards if you push, but it is not good to take wild gambles early on like this in my opinion becuase if the other players who limped could be thinking the same thing then you could get yourself in a crap shoot with the other players with only marginally better hands. I guess it goes back to if you think you are a better palyer than the other players and if you would have a better chance to win in a game that was decided over more than on hand. I believe that trying to accumlate chips early leans better toward getting into pots with hands you may not normmaly play to try to make a big hand (86s for example), not trying to get all in each time you are a 51/49 fav. Just my thoughts.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
1) The binomial probability is .80 that my hand is better than both of the limpers.
2) From my limited experience, the probability is about .40 that one or both of the limpers will call my all-in.
Therefore, this appears to me to be a potentially high probability, high EV course of action.


[/ QUOTE ]

The flaw in this thinking is that you are not taking into account the probability the caller will have a better hand. If someone will call a they will have at least Ace-face or a decent pocket pair, but probably an even better hand, in which case you will most likely lose all your chips. So, you will either lose all your chips, or gain 3.5xbb. Not very profitable.