Loose preflop call with pocket fives [Archive]

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kiemo

10-20-2004, 02:13 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (24.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (19.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (29.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB folds, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 37.75 BB
Main Pot: 37.75 BB, between UTG, UTG+2, MP1 and Hero.

Preflop is my main source of confusion on this hand.
Normally I am mucking low pocket pairs when faced with calling two cold, but for some unforseen reason I called this time. I thought for sure both UTG players would call and at least one of the blinds would call, so I figured my odds were about 5.5 to 1. I never expected the limp reraise and subsequent cap, and gave serious conisderation to folding.

Rest of hand is standard. UTGs check raise on the river did scare me into thinking he had quads, so I probably left some bets on the table as he showed 86d for a WTF moment of a lifetime.

Vern

10-20-2004, 03:37 AM

I think the CC in the CO is ok here, because you can expect the first to limpers to call and the BB will either call or there is dead money in the pot. The limp re-raise is rare but all in all, you put in 4 SB preflop and you were 8:1 to hit your set, so you only needed to make up 12 SB if you hit your set since there were already 20 SB contributed by others. With 5 opponents and this big a pot, 12 SB (6BB) seems pretty easy to presume capturing.

Side note: There are only 4 of the possible 990 hands possible that beat you, the one pair of 2's and the three possible hands of 7's. Raise the river and hope that UTG caps with all those callers. With callers, you cannot just call, even if you fear he has quads.

btspider

10-20-2004, 10:12 AM

nice hand, but 3-bet that river.

plaschke

10-20-2004, 11:23 AM

Vern,
not sure how you calculated 990 hands. Could you elaborate. I think there are 1372 = 52*51/2 starting hands.

So any pocket pair (4 choose 2) = 6/1326 = about 0.5%

There is about a 1% chance or 1 in 100 that the opponent has
pockets 7s or pocket 2s

I think your calculation is close to calculating one of the pocket pairs 4/990 = 0.45% but not two

I'ld be interested in seeing how you came up with 990.

Thanks

Vern

10-20-2004, 11:08 PM

Before the deal, there are 1372 possible hands (52*51/2), You get dealt one hand (two cards) so each of your opponents have one of the 1225 remaining (50*49/2) possible after taking your two out of the mix. On the flop you know 5 cards, so your opponent's hand must be within the 1081 (47*46/2) combos possible of the remaining 47 cards. On the turn you know 6 cards, so your opponent's hand must be one of the 1035 (46*45/2) combos remaining possible. By the river you know 7 cards, so the remaining possible hand combos that your opponent could have are now down to 990 (45*44/2).

Of thos 990 possible hands, one is a pair of 2's, there are three that are pairs of 7's. Those are the only 4 hands out of the entire deck (990 possible combos remain) that beat you.

plaschke

10-22-2004, 10:29 AM

Gotcha. I didn't subtract the cards that were seen.
I was calculating from PF

52*51/2 = 1326
50, 49, 48, 47, 46

45*44/2 = 990

Only 77 or 22 can beat him.

There are 3 sevens and 1 way to get 22

3 chose 2 = 3*2/2 = 3 ways to get a 7

4/990

So a good estimate is (number of better hands / 1000) at the river to figure the chance of someone beating your hand

Thanks - been a while since applied combinitorics in school

TheHip41

10-22-2004, 10:31 AM

Any reason you didn't re raise the river? Don't see how the board pairing under you hurt you. Jack that river up

TheHip41

10-22-2004, 10:34 AM

Anyone that doesn't raise this river because they fear quads, or a bigger boat is playing too weak. You will very rarely have the nuts on the river, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't ever cap the river without them. If they have quads, good for them

Rico Suave

10-22-2004, 10:41 AM

Kiemo:

Everything looks fine, including the preflop call, up until the river. The lack of the river 3-bet is bad---really bad.

--Rico

davelin

10-22-2004, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Rest of hand is standard. UTGs check raise on the river did scare me into thinking he had quads, so I probably left some bets on the table as he showed 86d for a WTF moment of a lifetime.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not 3-betting the river is almost equally a WTF moment as well.

Entity

10-22-2004, 10:58 AM

The lack of a river 3-bet in this hand borders on criminal. C'mon, man. He doesn't have 22 or 77. If he does, thank him for saving you at least a couple of big bets. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

bergh

10-22-2004, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Rest of hand is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not 3-bet the river??? Afraid of quads? Raising will give you 3-1 (no one will fold) and he sure won't have quads 75% of the time!

Don't worry about the limp raise with 6 players in the pot. The insane pre-flop action and 6 players on the flop will sure seed a lot of post-flop action - so it might not even cut down your implied odds at all... I think calling 2-cold is ok in this case!

bergh

10-22-2004, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So a good estimate is (number of better hands / 1000) at the river to figure the chance of someone beating your hand

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks like a really dangerous rule of thumb! You must account for his actions! There are not 990 hands with which he calls all the way to the river and then raises.

The only hands he can have are flushes and hands that beats you which gives you 9-1 that you are ahead. This is of course still an easy raise (especially since it's probably closer to 36-1; playing pocket sevens this passivly is highly unlikely).

GrunchCan

10-22-2004, 11:49 AM

PF: Fine. If you muck low PPs every time u have to call 2 cold, then you muck them too often. You have 5 opponents, the pot is huge, pot odds are good, and implied odds are great. Position is good. Get in there.

Flop: Fine.
Turn: fine.
River: The worst mistake you could have made would have been to fold. The second worst mistake is not re-raising the river. With 4 opponents, you missed at least 8 big bets, possibly as many as 16. You have 5s full of duces. There are only 2 hands that beat you: 7s full and quads. Even a straight flush can't beat you, becasue you have a breaking card. If someone beats you with 7s full, God bless 'em. The lack of a re-raise on the river is a disaster.

check raise on the river did scare me into thinking he had quads

Sorry, but I'm never afraid of quads. It's a one-in-a-million hand. I think you are seeing monsters under the bed.

GrunchCan

10-22-2004, 11:52 AM

By the way...

so I figured my odds were about 5.5 to 1. I never expected the limp reraise and subsequent cap, and gave serious conisderation to folding.

Folding to the second 2 cold would have been a mistake. If the odds on the first 2 were good enough (which they were), and the pot only got bigger (e.g., pot odds got even better), how could it be correct to fold the second?

kiemo

10-22-2004, 12:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but I'm never afraid of quads. It's a one-in-a-million hand. I think you are seeing monsters under the bed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see quads shown about once or twice a night when playing online and I typically only play about an hour.

Will post a hand here later exemplifying why I was backed off.

plaschke

10-22-2004, 12:26 PM

OF course you are right, I think it is just another piece of the puzzle.

There are many things to consider, the betting action, the player types (loose/tight/aggressive/passive), etc.

It is just another piece of info

I wouldnt ever say someone should just use a simple calulation

GrunchCan

10-22-2004, 01:23 PM

That can't be right. If you are playing online an hour a night you are playing less than 100 hands per night. You are saying you get shown 4 of a kind once or twice every hundred hands? No way is that sustainable. According to my PT log, over the last 10,000 hands, Iv'e only seen quads 7 times, and a couple times the quads were on the board. Usually there is a set on the board. Only once have I seen quads using a PP in 10,000 hands.

Do you use PT or similar software to track your play?

Vern

10-22-2004, 02:53 PM

Kiemo,

The thing is, if UTG had quads, or sevens full I think you would have seen action from him before now. I doubt he would call both the flop and turn with a set, then check-raise the river with either of those hands. Second, if he had such a monster, betting out would be better for him since the flop and turn raiser is the last to act. He would be trapping two players to call his one bet hoping you raised and he could re-raise. At it was, it looked like he was trying to make a weak flush drop on the river or scare a straight to fold to the apparent flush completion. With 2 other players already calling 2 on the river, you have to raise here. You cannot be behind all three and are ahead of all three more than 25% of the time so you have to raise and hope for a cap by UTG.

kiemo

10-22-2004, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way is that sustainable. According to my PT log, over the last 10,000 hands, Iv'e only seen quads 7 times

[/ QUOTE ]

In 10k hands you and your opponents have only gotten quads 7 times? How did you filter this out in PT, as I know of no way to get the final hand of all my opponents broken down by hand value except by looking at the misc page and manually walking every player.

Or are you counting only your quads? my comment was referring to anybody showing quads.

Really my river play isnt in question here, I recognized it was probably wrong in my OP. Sometimes when you are multi-tabling you miss a bet or two becuase your mind is wrapped around the action at another table. However with the kinda plays you see at PP .5/1 tables, I dont think I am way too far of base in expecting to see a better hand here.

GrunchCan

10-22-2004, 04:29 PM

How did you filter this out in PT

Open the ring game player stats window (you know, the main window). Go to the "Misc Stats" tab. Shown there are stats broken down by final hand, and (I suppose depending on your filters) shows all known final hands. Not just your own final hands.

MarkL444

10-22-2004, 04:44 PM

Im sure its already been said (i didnt read the thread), but there is nothing loose about this preflop call. 3-bet the river.

Mark

kiemo

10-22-2004, 05:46 PM

This hand is a bit different, but...

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (8.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB
Main Pot: 16.50 BB, between Hero, MP1 and MP2. > Pot won by MP1 (16.50 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd Ks (full house, aces full of kings).
MP1 has 6s Ac (four of a kind, aces).
MP2 doesn't show.
Outcome: MP1 wins 16.50 BB.

kiemo

10-22-2004, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How did you filter this out in PT

Open the ring game player stats window (you know, the main window). Go to the "Misc Stats" tab. Shown there are stats broken down by final hand, and (I suppose depending on your filters) shows all known final hands. Not just your own final hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless there is a option I am missing this screen shows only shows the final hands for the player selected.