Lost with an overpair

[MarkL444]

CO is 55/0 PF in only 20 hands. I have no other read on him.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

<font color="green"> I feel real comfortable with this hand up until this cap, and now I feel like the pots big enough and I am commited. </font>

Turn: (14 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (17 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 19 BB

Is this the best line I can take here?

[Evan]

PF- fine

Flop- fine (most people won't play a monster this fast)

Turn- fine

River- (that card sucks) Eh, nothing else you can do


This hand sucks but I can't find another way to play it.

[jtr]

When a passive 2/4 player caps on the flop, I think it means either a set (40%), a big overpair (20%), TPTK (20%), or two pair (20%). So going into the turn I think you can be 80% confident you're behind, and it's a question of having the odds to call down.

Sadly it's a big pot on the turn and I can see why you went to the end. If I'm right and there's a 20% chance of him holding A8 then clearly you have odds to call the turn, and the river is just one of those crying calls. If you had a definite read on this guy as loose-passive preflop and then passive postflop (no funny stuff, e.g., a postflop aggression score of &lt; 1 after many hands) then I think I would rule out TPTK as his holding and fold to the turn bet. But while there's any doubt I think you have to call down.

[spamuell]

Bet the turn. The pot is very big now, lots of hands can overplay flops like that, you're fairly unlikely to get raised but desperate for the turn not to get checked through.

I don't know why you assume your beat, you could easily be against an overplayed draw, pair+draw (this is very likely, a hand like 87 is going to go crazy on this flop but might check through the turn), lower pair than your own etc. Some of the time you're crushed by a set or better, but the pot is big and you don't need to be right all that often to make this turn bet correct.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had a definite read on this guy as loose-passive preflop and then passive postflop (no funny stuff, e.g., a postflop aggression score of &lt; 1 after many hands) then I think I would rule out TPTK as his holding and fold to the turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Have you counted your outs? You have 3.3 outs vs. JJ, 9.3 outs vs. two pair, etc. Admittedly BB may have something as well, but I don't see how you could ever fold this hand with 16 BB in the pot.

There's nothing to be done but call it down.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
a hand like 87 is going to go crazy on this flop but might check through the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

87 and 86 just improved. They're not checking through the turn and we're screwed against both.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. The pot is very big now, lots of hands can overplay flops like that, you're fairly unlikely to get raised but desperate for the turn not to get checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is that so important? No one will fold anything useful for one bet.

We are usually in trouble here. A turn bet offers no value against his likely range of hands. We get raised and lose an extra bet much too often.

[spamuell]

87 and 86 just improved. They're not checking through the turn and we're screwed against both.

I managed to not notice that the turn card was a 7 here. I thought it was like a deuce or something. Check the turn if it's a 7.

[spamuell]

We are usually in trouble here. A turn bet offers no value against his likely range of hands. We get raised and lose an extra bet much too often.

I didn't notice the turn was a 7, thought it was a 2 for some reason.

I'd still check though, I completely misread this hand, flop action as well. I don't think the CO checking through a worse hand AND the BB having a worse hand which would have folded to one bet AND which would have improved happens often enough to offset being raised. Also, if you check, you can fold if BB check-raises.

[Festus22]

If there's a place to bail, it's the turn. I have a lot of opponents in my database that when they cap a flop like this, they have me beat. Period, end of story. Against an unknown 2/4 player however, I play this exactly like you. In this case, your sample size on this player is just too small to make any read reliable so you did fine.