Fishy turn raise

[haakee]

Haven't been playing as much recently due to other obligations, but I got in a couple sessions this weekend. This hand took place last night in the 20-40 game at Lucky Chances. I had just taken my seat about 15 minutes prior.

Loosish dude limps in EP. MP player raises. I haven't played with him before, but he has a very high PFR %age over the past 15 minutes and I perceive him to be overaggressive. He looks like a crazy Asian gamb00ler (CAG). I 3-bet in the CO with black JJ. Limper calls and CAG calls.

Flop: Kxx rainbow. Checked to me, I bet, limper folds, CAG calls.

Turn: blank making the board something like K754 with two clubs. I bet. CAG raises. I go into the think tank. I really feel like he's making a move here, but I have very little information on him. Of course, he also has little information on me as it's early in the session.

What's your move here?

[elysium]

hi haakee

this isn't as close as it appears. you must call him down.

[andyfox]

Call him down. It'll cost you $80 to win $410 if he bets again on the river. I'd guess there was at least a 20% chance that he has either zilch, a flush draw, or a smaller pocket pair. Add that to the chances that he may not bet the river and you may spike a jack (which wouldn't give him a flush), and I'd call, expecting to lose, but not 80% of the time.

The only caveat I'd add is that the presence of the king on the flop might lower your chances somewhat, as many players put pre-flop 3-bettors on A-K and therefore won't try a move on a flop with a king.

Regards,
Andy

[haakee]

I'm glad to see Andy and I think alike. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I decided I'd call down. So I called the turn raise, a third club came on the river and we check-checked. He flipped over A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif and MHIG.

Each of my options (re-raise, call, fold) seemed to have some merit and I was particularly wondering what people thought of 3-betting the turn. I could fold to a 4-bet, and I would check behind on the river, but I'd feel obligated to call a river bet after bloating the pot with a turn 3-bet.

[andyfox]

I peeked, but I had already answered, so I guess it's allowed.

"I really feel like he's making a move here"

This counts for something too. Unless what you "feel" is wrong all too often. Sometimes there's something about the way the guy bets, or his posture, or his look that gives us a conscious or subconscious tell. Now we may not be 100% sure, or even 50% sure, but it has value and we should add that into the equation too in figuring our response.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Each of my options (re-raise, call, fold) seemed to have some merit and I was particularly wondering what people thought of 3-betting the turn. I could fold to a 4-bet, and I would check behind on the river, but I'd feel obligated to call a river bet after bloating the pot with a turn 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

3-betting is the worst of the 3 plays by far.