Daxonovitch
10-19-2004, 03:07 PM
As a spinoff of my Parlay thread, I decided to modify my program to calculate your EV and RoR for given strategies. The neat part about this is that I input the values directly from PT so this is "real" data.
What I'm offering is for anyone to submit strategies with their PT database and starting bankroll, and I'll show you your short and long term EV and RoR.
As an example, I ran this strategy, the "10xBuyin" Strategy - divide your BR by ten and play the next lowest buyin SNG: If you had $221, you could play a $22, if you had $219, you could play an $11. I assume that you never play $6 sngs (for a multitude of reasons, ask me if you really want to know).
I also ran it twice with two different sets of $215 stats: One that is a "losing" player at the $215s, he places 1st, 2nd and 3rd exactly 10% of the time (and hence, loses the 7.5% rake):
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Using: ChrisD's PT Statistics
Starting Bankroll: $800
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
10 x Buyin | EV in $$ | Risk of Ruin % |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
After 10 SNG | $960.42 | 0.00% |
After 30 SNG | $1266.96 | 0.00% |
After 50 SNG | $1513.48 | 2.00% |
After 100 SNG | $1971.99 | 35.00% |
After 200 SNG | $2520.20 | 99.50% |
After 500 SNG | $3251.99 | 82.80% |
After 1000 SNG | $3614.11 | 66.50% |
After 10000 SNG | $3677.78 | 47.85% |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
</pre><hr />
As you can see, the RoR is extremely high (I'm not quite sure why it goes *down* for longer runs - I may have a bug? I will look), but if you can make it to about $3000, it looks like you'll basically tread water, the reason being you probably lose money at the $200s and go back down to the $100s.
Alternatively, if you are a very slight winner at the $200s (I used 11% for 1st, 2nd, 3rd place), here are the results:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Using: ChrisD's PT Statistics
Starting Bankroll: $800
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
10 x Buyin | EV in $$ | Risk of Ruin % |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
After 10 SNG | $962.91 | 0.00% |
After 30 SNG | $1280.12 | 0.00% |
After 50 SNG | $1577.60 | 2.00% |
After 100 SNG | $2247.06 | 41.00% |
After 200 SNG | $3391.65 | 81.50% |
After 500 SNG | $6196.21 | 74.20% |
After 1000 SNG | $10010.47 | 51.90% |
After 10000 SNG | $59101.19 | 9.50% |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
</pre><hr />
Fairly drastic difference, eh? I will investigate the RoR stuff and see if I have some sort of bug.. if anyone is a java developer and wishes to see my source code they are welcome to do so. If anyone has different "strategies" as to playing a series of SNGs, please post and I will do some tests.
Since this works off my personal PT data, it will likely be far different for everyone.
What I'm offering is for anyone to submit strategies with their PT database and starting bankroll, and I'll show you your short and long term EV and RoR.
As an example, I ran this strategy, the "10xBuyin" Strategy - divide your BR by ten and play the next lowest buyin SNG: If you had $221, you could play a $22, if you had $219, you could play an $11. I assume that you never play $6 sngs (for a multitude of reasons, ask me if you really want to know).
I also ran it twice with two different sets of $215 stats: One that is a "losing" player at the $215s, he places 1st, 2nd and 3rd exactly 10% of the time (and hence, loses the 7.5% rake):
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Using: ChrisD's PT Statistics
Starting Bankroll: $800
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
10 x Buyin | EV in $$ | Risk of Ruin % |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
After 10 SNG | $960.42 | 0.00% |
After 30 SNG | $1266.96 | 0.00% |
After 50 SNG | $1513.48 | 2.00% |
After 100 SNG | $1971.99 | 35.00% |
After 200 SNG | $2520.20 | 99.50% |
After 500 SNG | $3251.99 | 82.80% |
After 1000 SNG | $3614.11 | 66.50% |
After 10000 SNG | $3677.78 | 47.85% |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
</pre><hr />
As you can see, the RoR is extremely high (I'm not quite sure why it goes *down* for longer runs - I may have a bug? I will look), but if you can make it to about $3000, it looks like you'll basically tread water, the reason being you probably lose money at the $200s and go back down to the $100s.
Alternatively, if you are a very slight winner at the $200s (I used 11% for 1st, 2nd, 3rd place), here are the results:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Using: ChrisD's PT Statistics
Starting Bankroll: $800
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
10 x Buyin | EV in $$ | Risk of Ruin % |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
After 10 SNG | $962.91 | 0.00% |
After 30 SNG | $1280.12 | 0.00% |
After 50 SNG | $1577.60 | 2.00% |
After 100 SNG | $2247.06 | 41.00% |
After 200 SNG | $3391.65 | 81.50% |
After 500 SNG | $6196.21 | 74.20% |
After 1000 SNG | $10010.47 | 51.90% |
After 10000 SNG | $59101.19 | 9.50% |
-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
</pre><hr />
Fairly drastic difference, eh? I will investigate the RoR stuff and see if I have some sort of bug.. if anyone is a java developer and wishes to see my source code they are welcome to do so. If anyone has different "strategies" as to playing a series of SNGs, please post and I will do some tests.
Since this works off my personal PT data, it will likely be far different for everyone.