Open Ended Royal Flush Draw -- How bad was my play?

[O Doyle Rules]

I am new to the NL game. The results were good on this hand, but I'm now second guessing myself on it. How is my play? Can I lay this hand down? Thanks to all who respond.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($36.85)
MP1 ($43.50)
MP2 ($70.05)
CO ($15.40)
Button ($65.85)
SB ($80.10)
Hero ($104.75)
UTG ($44.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to $4</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to $25</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $103.75 (All-In)</font>, SB calls $54.10 (All-In).

Turn: ($184.85) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($184.85) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $184.85

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB has 5s Qh (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Ks Js (straight, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins $184.85. </font>

[TheGrifter]

I haven't looked at the results, but here is my take.

You should've folded when the SB raised to 25 dollars. He's showing a LOT of strength here and has at least trip queens. The fact is, you're a dog here nearly all of the time and the pot is still small. It's tough to fold a big hand like this, but it's the right play.

[ipp147]

Hi O Doyle,

I'm fairly new myself but...when he raises you $25 on the flop he's saying he has a queen. You have the 2nd nut flush and an OESD.

You are a favorite over his hand as it stood. Fearing the FH is probably a little tight/weak.

To be frank I think with the 5 kicker his call of your reraise was awful.

Please note though that as much as I try I can't help but be influenced by the results, leave them off next time /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]

You are a favorite over his hand as it stood.

[/ QUOTE ]

You sure?

[Wayfare]

Why not just call the re-min raise? Taking a card off in this spot really isn't a bad thing.

[O Doyle Rules]

Hey Grifter,

Thanks for the input. I thought (maybe knew) I should have laid this hand down to his $25 raise. I did put him on trip queens because I would not see him playing a made full boat so aggressively. I thought it was a close call between folding and raising in this situation, thus this is why I put him all-in.

Can you explain the math to me why I should have laid it down? Thanks.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just call the re-min raise? Taking a card off in this spot really isn't a bad thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, that would've been the play.

[TheGrifter]

When it comes back around to you there is 14 bucks in the pot and it's 25 to call. Your folding equity against trips is very, very low. You are almost certainly against trips or a boat here.

Assume he has trips 75% of the time and a boat 25% of the time.

75% of the time you are a slight underdog to win the hand. The money isn't really enough overlay.

25% of the time you are a huge underdog to win the hand and need a miracle.

This one isn't even close. Remember, it doesn't matter how strong your hand is, what's important is how you're doing in relation to your opponents likely holdings.

[O Doyle Rules]

Hey Ipp147,

That was my exact take. His call of my all-in bet I thought was terrible. I thought he might possibly lay down trip queens with my all-in bet, thus giving me another way to win this pot.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Ipp147,

That was my exact take. His call of my all-in bet I thought was terrible. I thought he might possibly lay down trip queens with my all-in bet, thus giving me another way to win this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad thinking, no way he's laying down trip queens here. Not on a draw heavy board.

[phil_ivey_fan]

KJsuited is a 42% dog to the trip Qs

[O Doyle Rules]

Hey Grifter,

I agree if he did have the boat, I was a huge underdog. My read was trip queens because of the size of his bet. If I am 90-95% certain that he is on trips, and there is a 30-35% chance he would lay down his hand to my all-in bet, would this have swung the pendulum in my favor? If he was paying attention, he would have seen me lay down quite a few previous hands to strong raises. Thanks.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Grifter,

I agree if he did have the boat, I was a huge underdog. My read was trip queens because of the size of his bet. If I am 90-95% certain that he is on trips, and there is a 30-35% chance he would lay down his hand to my all-in bet, would this have swung the pendulum in my favor? If he was paying attention, he would have seen me lay down quite a few previous hands to strong raises. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking is good, just not for this game. This is an important point so I'm going to highlight it Never try to move a bad player off a strong hand.

Also, the size of his bet does not mean he doesn't have a strong hand...a QT or TT full house could easily have the same betting sequence.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Never try to move a bad player off a strong hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd amend that to say never try to move a bad player off any kind of hand, cause he won't budge. Value bet instead.

I'd have raised him preflop after he limped. You dont' want to give trash hands cheap flops and you have a good hand with position.

Your flop raise is good, then I'd call his minraise and hope to catch a straight or flush card. Reraising small like that accomplishes nothing -- he won't fold for that tiny amount, and it just opens the betting and lets him raise you big where you're forced to give up something pretty valuable (ie. your strong draw).

--Greg

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed)


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

If he was paying attention, he would have seen me lay down quite a few previous hands to strong raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

These 2 statements ought to tell you everything you need to know.