effective odds?

[therockofgibraltar]

ok, I understand what pot odds mean. But what about the effective odds??

Is it like this:
After the flop there is $10 in the pot and two opponents. If there is a bet and call before it gets to you, you are receiving 12-1 pot odds but what about the effective odds. Is it your bet now + your turn call + your river call (lets suppose that they bet and you call all the way /images/graemlins/smile.gif )
1+2+2= $5, so you are risking $5 to win 12(the flop)+ 2+2(the turn)+ 2+2(the river) = $20, so the odds are 20-5 = 4-1.
Is this correct????

If it is, why on earth should we use pot odds because the future betting affect so strongly to the odds?

Am I missing something? WHEN TO USE POT ODDS AND WHEN TO USE EFFECTIVE ODDS?

Thanks!

[John White]

I think there's a great example in SSHE. Have you read it?

Imagine that on the turn, you have an inside draw to the nut straight and you've put your opponent soldly on Aces. If the pot is laying you just below the 10.5:1 you need, you might consider calling anyway, as you'll lay down a missed straight, but collect a bet or even two on the river if you hit. See, if you hit the nut hand, you don't count your river bets as part of what you have to put into the pot, but you do count your opponents bets.

So imagine the above situation with 10BB in the pot. I call, hit the straight, bet out, and get called. I've won the 10BB plus the opponent's river bet. If I missed, I woudl have check/folded. So my effective odds were 11:1. I I acted behind my opponent, I might have had the chance to raise when I hit, and gotten two BB from him on the river, so my effective odds were 12:1.

Uh, I think this is how it works, anyway.

[LowDown22]

I believe you are talking about implied odds John.

therock,
Wish I had SSH in front of me, but I thought effective odds were basically the total amount you will contribute to the pot compared to the total you can win, taking all streets into account. It looks like you have the right idea.

[therockofgibraltar]

So why is everyone using pot odds? Effective odds sounds much better because it takes future bets (yours and opponents) into account.

Currently I am trying to use pot odds on flop AND effective odds on turn.

[Peter Harris]

i guess effective odds are less helpful because it assumes you're going to the river.

On a 22-1 SB flop draw to a turned set, i'm folding the turn unimproved. So i can call if the pot is laying 22-1. If i was planning on taking my small pair to the river, i'd need the pot to lay even more, and i'd be forced to fold the flop, despite the fact it's giving me the odds to peel off one card.

So basically, effective odds are when you're planning to show down, not when you're planning on taking ONE more card off.

Am i wrong? Comments from more learned people most welcome.

Regards,
Pete Harris

[detruncate]

I doubt I fall into the "more learned" category, but effective odds are for adjusting your cross-street pot equity estimate to take into account any bets you might have to call on one or more intermediate streets.

For example, you have a gutshot to the nuts in an 8 SB pot vs 4 opponents and are bound and determined to see the river. You're 4/47+4/46= 17.2%. You're closing the action for 1 SB, and figure to have to spend 1 BB on the turn when you miss. You also expect all of your opponents to contribute 1 BB each. You're putting in 3 SB for a chance to win 16 (excluding implied odds on the river). That's about 18.75% on a 17.2% shot. This is not quite accurate, since it doesn't take into account the fact that you'll hit your outs about equally on the turn and river... but it could very well seem like you're actually getting much better odds than you are if you use the 2-street odds and don't include the turn bets.

I haven't found much occasion to calculate effective odds rather than going street by street to this point.

There's a good discussion of effective odds in TOP if anyone wants to read more about it.