$100+/hr Playing Small Stakes NL: It's Possible

[XChamp]

I am a semi-pro player. I go to school and play poker 10-15 hrs a week on the side and average about $30/hr. I think I do pretty well for myself. When compared to my buddy, however, I pale in comparison.

We both started playing 3 years ago and have steadily built our bank rolls. Although I have been doing alright I have not been getting the results that my friend has. For a year he has claimed that he makes $100+ an hour playing simultaneous tables of low stakes NL. Frankly, I thought he was full of [censored]. I figured that $50/hr was much more likely, so I told him to import hand histories into Poker Tracker and when he has 20k+ tell me what his winrate is. Well that day came yesterday. He has 25k in poker tracker and his true win rate is $101/hr (NOT counting rake kickback or deposit bonuses). It's almost nauseating. I made sure he didn't "accidently" skip any of his losing days. I really did not think it was possible. The variance of his play is incredible. 3 times this past year I have hit $3,000 losing streaks playing the same stakes as him (and I play about 1/3rd as much as him), while his worst streak has only been $2,000 and that happened only once.

He is, admittedly, a very good player, but when I talk with him about poker (just about every day), watch him play and even play against him I really don't see the brilliance; I only see it through his results, which makes me suspicious of some incredible statistical hiccup. But then again, 25,000 hands is a large sample AND that $2,000 losing streak of his is included within it.

Personally, I think that what may be going on here is that my buddy is extremely adept at parting weak and irrational players with their money. For example, although he plays many tables at once he still can keep tabs on the status of players. I watch him make something like the following play all the time:

everyone folds and Idiot calls as dealer.
SB folds
Hero checks BB w/ (K 7).

flop: (A 7 4)
Hero checks
Idiot bets $6
Hero all-in
Idiot calls $130 with (7 5)

I will then ask my friend, "How the hell did you know you were good and how the hell did you know he would call??", because, obviously, it looked like he made a very dangerous and stupid play. He will inevitably respond with something like "I knew he was pissed off at me from 2 hands ago because I had AK to his KQ with a K on board. Because of this I knew he didn't have an ace because he would have raised with it preflop, so I moved all in with that ridiculous bet because A- I knew I was winning and B- I thought he would call with a 7 or even a 4 because my play looked like a bluff and he was very frustrated and angry at me from the hand before."

I am then left sitting there, incredulous. I mean, how can often can you get something like that work? How often will it backfire horribly?! I'll watch him 10 hands later and I'll see him put down QQ preflop to the same Idiot, only for someone else to call and the Idiot to show AA.

The thing is that he doesn't do nearly as well against players that know what they are doing. Sure he still wins, but he doesn't slaughter the game or flat out embarass people or even do as well I as I do.

What do you guys think? Is he just on an epic run of cards, or is he a genius at parting a fool from his money?

[Sponger15SB]

$100/hr is very possible.

[bdk3clash]

Can we define what stakes we're talking about? Also, at least in limit 25,000 hands isn't really enough to accurately gauge winrate. I've definitely had huge differences in winrate from one 25,000 hand chunk to another without corresponding gains or declines in skill.

[XChamp]

$1-$2 w/ $100 max buy-in

[fsuplayer]

what stakes are we talking about here?

how many tables?

what site?

btw 25k hands is not a large sample size by any means.

[bdk3clash]

How many tables is he playing? How many hands per hour do these tables average?

[augie00]

I'm not sure what you want here; an analysis of your friend's foolish play or his lucky run of 25,000 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
everyone folds and Idiot calls as dealer.
SB folds
Hero checks BB w/ (K 7).

flop: (A 7 4)
Hero checks
Idiot bets $6
Hero all-in
Idiot calls $130 with (7 5)


[/ QUOTE ]

If a play like this is standard for your friend, it would appear that he has been on a lucky run of cards for the last 25k hands. 25,000 is not all that large of a sample size and certainly doesn't indicate the "long run."

Assuming you play 5 tables of .50/1 NLHE, I think it's only borderline unreasonable to win $100/hr while you're running well. However, with your example provided, it would seem that your friend has just been getting lucky through reckless play and "gambling it up."

Check-raising for $136 to win a $10 pot with 2nd pair is never a good play, no matter how good he thinks his "read" is.

[XChamp]

He gets in about 300 hands/hr. I agree with what some of you are saying and I understand the easy dismissal, but come one he's been doing this for much more than 25k hands. He's up almost $100k for the year!

[Vollycat]

I would agree with most of the posts so far saying that your friend is on a great run of cards. However I think what your friend may be very good at is table selection-and if the example you gave of poker play is normal, I think he must be a much better 'table selector' then poker player.

[XChamp]

Well I think that example may have skewed everyone's view of him too much. Yes he does things like that but it's only against players that he has watched for a while. he wont pull that against any reasonable player. He is a very solid player in most situations but obviously has the ability to dramatically change gears if needed and plays every hand differently depending on the man. He is also very good at inducing bluffs.

[bdk3clash]

OK, $2 big blind, 300 hands an hour, $100 per hour. 50 big blinds per hour. 50 big blinds per 300 hands, 16.7 BB/100 hands.

Essentially, your claim is that your friend wins about 17 BB/100 hands at $1/2 $100 max NL. Not knowing anything about no limit winrates, I'll leave it to those that do to claim "ach ach" or "nicht nicht" on these figures.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, $2 big blind, 300 hands an hour, $100 per hour. 50 big blinds per hour. 50 big blinds per 300 hands, 16.7 BB/100 hands.

Essentially, your claim is that your friend wins about 17 BB/100 hands at $1/2 $100 max NL. Not knowing anything about no limit winrates, I'll leave it to those that do to claim "ach ach" or "nicht nicht" on these figures.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some crazy reason i've been told that NL win rates are quoted in "big bets" i.e 2x the big blind..... even though there are no big bets in no limit.

so 8.35bb/100 matches up to what is possible.

[ChicagoTroy]

This discussion came up the other day and Astroglide said it was big blinds, not big bets.

I don't know who's right.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
This discussion came up the other day and Astroglide said it was big blinds, not big bets.

I don't know who's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know either.... there was a 30 post thread a while back where everyone tried to convice me that I was wrong for thinking that it was "big blinds".... I'd find it but it was pretty embarassing!

"I'm making Xbb/100"
"No way you're actually making 1/2xbb/100... see you thought you were all good actually you're 1/2 as good as us"
"*Sigh*"

[ChicagoTroy]

From Schwza:

"between 10bb/100 and 15bb/100 is very good. between 5 and 10 isnt bad. "

He was referring to big blinds. Hence your 8 big bet theory is on the outer edge of what seems possible but the NL guys seem to talk in terms big blinds.

I gotta learn me some no limit.

[dogmeat]

The high-end number I have been seeing for NL small-stakes games is a win rate of 10 big blinds per hour. If he is playing 5 tables, and playing $1/$2 blind and winning 10 big blinds per hour, that comes out to $100 per hour. I see this as possible for a very good player with a very good memory and sense of what is going on, covering those five tables. My results for .50/$1 are 12BB, but I can not play five games. At most, I handle three fairly well. Since I am really not that strong, I believe your friend may well be able to win at this rate for an extended period of time.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[jdl22]

It's really quite simple. In NL there is no such thing as the big bet. The minimum every round is the big blind and the maximum is whatever you have in front of you at the time. However most everyone uses PT. PT is mainly written for limit players, but works for NL as well. When PT calculates win rate they always give it in big bets, ie 2x the big blind.

Because most use PT the standard way to report your win rate is in bb/hr where bb = 2x big blind.

In every other discussion (how deep people are etc.) bb is short for big blind.

[turnipmonster]

"vassup!?" or "ich don't think so!"

??

--turnipmonster

[TheGrifter]

It is very possible to earn 50hr+ playing 1/2 NL online. This is the beauty of NL, one can parlay a 1500-2000 dollar bankroll into 1500-2000 weekly earnings. The players who do so have strong fundamentals and even more importantly the discipline and psycholigical makeup to play their best game 100% of the time. I think the latter is more rare than the former.

[fsuplayer]

fwiw-

when i was playing the party NL100. PT had me at 5.03BB/100, or 10.06big blinds/100.

$100/hr at those games seems like an impressive run to me.

btw, if he is playing at a site like UB or gaming club,then more BB/hr are possible due to the deeper stacks.

if its party, what is his handle as i have probably played against him before?

[ChicagoTroy]

Dog, do you mean per hour or per hundred hands?

[dogmeat]

Sorry, I was not very clear there. For the max win I have heard from players, it is 10 big blinds per hour. For this guy's friend, I think he can sustain it.

For me, it is straight from poker tracker stats and my win is just 12.28 big blinds per 100 hands - so my per table win is just $7.38 per hour. With three tables going it is $22. an hour. At the $1/$2 table I wilt to just 6.89 big blinds per 100, or $8.25 and multi-table $25 per hour.

I've got about 20K hands at these two rates with my so-so play, so I am certain the better players are doing quite well.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[bunky9590]

I don't know about the 50BB buyin games, but I am around that winrate in the 100X BB games. (100 max buy)

My rate in the 200 max is a little closer to 12BB/100 though.

It would have to be against some incredible morons to get those kind of numbers in that structured game.

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
The high-end number I have been seeing for NL small-stakes games is a win rate of 10 big blinds per hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure who you hang out with, but 15-20 BB/hr (big blinds) is very possible at small stake PLO games online.

I think MS Sunshine quoted 17 BB/100 for his win rate at 2/4 NLHE, so I'd be very surprised if a good players couldnt get that per hour at the low limits.

I believe the original posters friend can do this. Some can.

[dogmeat]

Thank you for confirming. MS says 17BB per 100 - I said 10BB per hour 60 hands per hour yields 10.2BB per hour. Sound good?

I'm a little confused about the question on who I hang out with - unless you are saying that good players should make the 15-20BB per hour you mention for PLO as well as NLHE. If that is the case, then I guess I hang out with crappy players who only make half that. Sorry, I'll try to find better players to hang out with.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Your Mom]

Good Ali G reference. Nice! There's another one.

[goodguy_1]

I'm not sure who you hang out with, but 15-20 BB/hr (big blinds) is very possible at small stake PLO games online

yes I have beaten the lower PLO games for 15 bb per hour after about 700 hours.I make more playing PLO than any other bigbet game with similar blinds...

The smaller games I multi-table 0.25/0.50 and 0.50/1.00 got a huge boast about 2 months ago when ESPN ran the 2003 and 2004 PLO finals.It brought alot of dead money to the games..they are still playing!!

It's not $100 per hour but it easy money plus PLO is THE funnest game to play barnone for me at least.

People dont understand that a good PLO player can make the game as big he wants if he's getting any cards..so small blind games dont need to be small games!

Look at the InterPoker 0.50/$1.00 w/$100 stacks the game plays almost as big as Party's $100 Game w/$1-2 blinds...

I see you regularly playing the PS $1-2 and 0.50/1.00 PLO DogBalls....do you make that kind of money in the $1-2 game??

[ChicagoTroy]

How many PLO games can you play simultaneously?

[dogsballs]

10BB/hr just seems low for a good player in low limit bigbet games.

MS's no was for 2/4 blinds I think. I'd expect that 15BB/hr is possible lower. goodguy_1 can tell you better I'm sure.

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
How many PLO games can you play simultaneously?

[/ QUOTE ]


more than you can of NLHE. The games go slower cos more multiway pots and people take forever sometimes to figure out their hands and play. PLus, you don't have to pay so much attention cos you're just nut-peddling at these stakes.

[ChicagoTroy]

I know you're trying to be helpful but "more than NL holdem" assumes I know that number, and I don't (I'm a limit player). Ciaffone plays 4 games, but that seems very rare here. What's a typical number for a PLO multitabler? 2? 4? 8?

[Reef]

My friend is a pro. He plays NL100 and NL200 on party. This last month and a half he has averaged $158/hr. He has just started 8 tables of NL100, averaging 2k-4k hands a day.

$100/hr is very possible.

[dogsballs]

there is no one number. Depends on you as the player.

Some play 3, but struggle with 4 tables of HE. Some play 8 no problem.
If you cope with 3 HE, you can prob do 4 PLO at low limits. If 6 HE is fine, try 8 or 10 PLo. I dunno, like I said, depends on teh player. All I know is that it's easier to add PLO tables than nlhe tables.

[driller]

Again, FWIW

I don't play that much pl/nl (I play at party) but the top 7 winners in my PT db with more than 100 hands at nl/pl all are winning at least 20 BB/100

I have over 1500 hands and am at 7.68/100 at NL100 and I really struggle to break even over all. So I think a really good player who multi-tabled could win $100/hr.

[MrFroggyX]

top 7 winners in my PT db with more than 100 hands at nl/pl all are winning at least 20 BB/100

No offense.. But sample size!!!
100 hands is a joke..

But to the question.. Yes, I think someone could win $100 per hour in the Party NL$100 tables (if they multi-table off course). Not everyone.. Only the top of the NL players.. I average around $50 in that same game.. but I have many leaks that am trying to fix before I move up.. (Otherwise I'm sure I will get slaughtered at the bigger tables)