AK in a very large pot: I think I played it poorly on turn and river

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Extremely loose game. I am stuck between Rammy McJammy (RMJ), Action Jackson (AJ), Cally McCall (CC), and Cappy McCap (CPMC). They might all limp one hand, but if one raises, they are likely to start pointlessly limp-reraising etc etc etc.

In this hand I have AKo on the button. Several limp and AJ raises. I see the downstream action players getting their chips ready for the cap-fest. I should note that it's a bet and FIVE raises in this room. Because I KNOW it's going UP, and NO ONE is going to fold, and my hand is far too likely to be WAY ahead to bail out, I just call, and call, and call, as it gets capped at six bets each times five players.

Flop comes an atrocious 224 rainbow. It's checked to RMJ, on my right, who bets. I raise, hoping at least someone will fold. CC will NEVER IN A BILLION YEARS fold EVER, so naturally, he calls. AJ and CPMC both call too, as does RMJ.

Turn is something atrocious like a trey of a fourth suit. It's checked to me, I check.

River is something even worse than the turn, I think an eight. It's checked to me, I check.

I wind up splitting the pot with RMJ, as we both have AK and no one paired.

I think given the size of the pot, I should have bet both the turn and the river here.

comments?

al

[Dov]

Hey Al,

Given the table conditions you described, who do you think will fold a pair?

You would, in effect, be bluffing with the best hand. I don't think that a worse hand calls your turn or river bets enough to be profitable here.

Consider yourself lucky to have won anything at all.

What do you do when you bet the turn and RMJ raises you?

Dov

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Dov

Good points.

However, in a pot this large, I think these players (other than Cally McCall) would have bet/raised with pairs or better, no matter how small. I was also quite sure RMJ would bet the flop no matter what he had, and that could very well be worse than AK here. Given there were like 35 small bets in the pot on the turn, I believe any action that would have increased my chances of winning the pot would have been profitable. Of course something like 99 is not going to fold, but if something like J9 or QT folded (the turn), I would obviously benefit from that. If AK also folded to my bets, I would obviously benefit greatly.

In the event I got check-raised, I would have to assess my chances of sucking out vs. the size of the pot (and include the chances I was drawing dead, chances of a bluff, etc etc). Given the huge size of the pot, I might still have to call anyway.

There is of course always the chance I am wrong here, but I don't think so, or I wouldn't have posted it. Convince me! Cuss and Discuss!

Further comments by you or anyone welcome.

al

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
Given there were like 35 small bets in the pot on the turn, I believe any action that would have increased my chances of winning the pot would have been profitable. Of course something like 99 is not going to fold, but if something like J9 or QT folded (the turn), I would obviously benefit from that. If AK also folded to my bets, I would obviously benefit greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem, as you say, is that this pot is so large. Realistically, will you have the best hand here or get the best to fold better than 2 in 35 times? If the answer is yes, I think you have to bet.

Still, when you get raised and call the raise, your odds get cut more. Now it may no longer be worth it.

The concept I was thinking of, though, was that these guys are in the game to have fun, obviously. They certainly aren't playing winning cards, right?

What could be more fun than winning a huge pot on the turn of a card on the river? Just like TV.

Now, if they still have nothing on the river, then your bet is still wrong. Remember that in TOP, David takes a lot of time to explain why you need to be at least a 55% favorite to win HU on the river if you want to value bet.

Value betting AK into this many opponents who could be holding anything at all cannot be right, IMO.

I am also hesitant to bet the turn because no matter what happens, you gain no information. Can you really narrow down anyone's hand here? In addition, in a pot this size, you may trigger the preflop capping tendencies again.

I just don't see it this time. I don't think there is any way you can protect this hand given the player descriptions. Even if the betting went bet-raise and you 3 bet, I don't think the guys behind you are folding. Definitely not RMJ. After all, he has a hand with a name that he knows: Big Slick. He isn't folding.

Dov

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop comes an atrocious 224 rainbow. It's checked to RMJ, on my right, who bets. I raise, hoping at least someone will fold. CC will NEVER IN A BILLION YEARS fold EVER, so naturally, he calls. AJ and CPMC both call too, as does RMJ.

Turn is something atrocious like a trey of a fourth suit. It's checked to me, I check.


[/ QUOTE ]

Look what happened on the flop. They all just called your raise. The maniacs aren't active. They don't likely have anything. Bet the turn when checked to. If c/r'ed, you call. You have a possible 10 outs. Be wary if CC gets active.

I'd also 3 bet this preflop. It looks suspicious to some maniacs when a tight player is just calling all those bets preflop. However, that could help you in knocking out some of them later if your image is right. Any 2 non-paired cards that fold at this point helps. Couple that with your raise on the flop, it looks like a limp/called big overpair. Which would be even more represented with a turn bet when checked to.

b

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
Look what happened on the flop. They all just called your raise. The maniacs aren't active. They don't likely have anything. Bet the turn when checked to. If c/r'ed, you call. You have a possible 10 outs. Be wary if CC gets active.

[/ QUOTE ]

In thinking about this a little more, this flop (224) is not really that bad for you. As mentioned in SSH, a paired board is much less likely to have hit your opponents because only 5 cards connect while an unpaired board has 9 that connect with it. Your hand is actually not so bad on the flop. The only thing that crushes you is a 2. Since the board is paired, your A outs are live again, as opposed to being reverse dominated by A4.

I still maintain that no one is going anywhere on the turn or river, though.

Good post, gentlemen.

Dov

[JKratzer]

[ QUOTE ]
Since the board is paired, your A outs are live again, as opposed to being reverse dominated by A4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how his ace outs are live - an ace on the turn gives him aces and twos while his opponent still has him beat with aces and fours.
As far as the hand goes, I would bet the turn and check the river unimproved. With that much preflop action, I would expect everyone to call the flop NMW. However, many players will now fold the turn when their QJo misses again. True, they are megastations and such, but as long as no one is showing any strength, give the option of folding - they just might take it.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I still maintain that no one is going anywhere on the turn or river, though

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't mean that with your A high in a pot this size, you just give the turn a chance to go by the wayside. Especially given what you could be representing.

If anyone folds, it's a bonus. Give them a chance to.

b