07-06-2002, 10:36 PM
Here's an interesting question that came up in a tournament situation recently. I'm a little hazy with the details, but here goes:
Lateish (25% left) in a multitable NLH tourney. I've got about 2500, average stack, blinds are 30-60, antes 5, so 140 in the pot .
I'm in cutoff with 710s, and it's folded around to me. I raise the pot, making it 260 to go. The button (similar stack size) reraises quirky amount, 300 more. Pot is 960, I call.
Then it gets fun! I flop an openended straight-flush draw, making me a favorite against whatever trash he's holding. I immediately go all-in. He calls. I hit the straight, and he shows AA, and the table is in disbelief that I called his raise.
I'm not too interested in my gameplay here (yes, I'll agree, loose call), but I'll tell you what I was thinking: I was "pretty certain" that he had AK, since I'd just seen this person make small quirky preflop raises with that hand and had thought to myself how silly it was not to raise at least the pot with it. I had a small, reserved feeling that he might be trying to take advantage of the fact that he'd just been caught doing that, and was raising with a monster AA or KK -- but I thought he wasn't sophisticated enough. So I was wrong.. this is going to lead to my question.
(And in case you're wondering why the raise with 710s in the first place, this was the type of tourney you could blindsteal with 72o profitably.)
Okay, so here's the point - this hand got me thinking about "face-up" questions. I.e., if my opponent turned his hand face-up, when can I call, etc.?
First question: What hands of his could I call, face-up? (for this, I mean, where I know what his hand is, but he doesn't know that I know what his hand is)
Obviously I can call if I know he's got AK, since I can get away from my hand, and I'm pretty good at exerting pressure, etc.
Given the stack sizes, and careful contemplation, I'm pretty certain I can't call if he's got aces -- there are too few flops that give me a big enough edge to make it worth while (even 2 pair or an openended straight-flush draw are only somewhat profitable), and, there's no way you get him out -- I'd have to show down the best hand. (To this end, is there any stack size in which calling against AA would be profitable with this hand? At some point, it must reach terminal velocity -- that is, I could no longer count on getting the whole thing if I flopped my monster. I tend to think no.)
But what about other hands, like KK, QQ, or JJ? With these, it would be reasonably simple to exploit the knowledge and get the person to fold. Some people are stubborn with KK, even when an ace falls, but people will usually fold JJ against an overcard (or even a paired board). There are also implied odds, since the pressure-exerting is most likely going to come from a checkraise. I'm tempted to say that a call against QQ or JJ is just fine.
2nd question: What about mixed combinations? There are some interesting situations that arise.
If I happen to know, for example, that my opponent is playing either QQ or JJ, I can still call, I think. But there are some interesting ones: If I know my opponent has either AK or QQ, with equal likelihood, it's essentially the same as being against AA, and cleary unprofitable (hough taking either individually would be fine).
If I think my opponent has either AK or JJ, with equal likelihood, I think this would be marginal, but with great confidence, it could be done by a skilled player. Further, if we increase the likelihood of AK relative to JJ, the play would become even easier.
Which brings us back to my actual example: What about a case of AK and AA? If the likelihood of AA is very high, this quickly becomes unprofitable, which brings me to my
MAIN QUESTION: What percentage chance of AA in an AA-AK mix makes chasing a positive e.v. play? It's complicated, but should be mathematically relatively attainable. First, we'd have to figure out the maximum pos e.v. strategy vs. a given mix, for which we need certain assumptions:
First, we assume AK will fold to a pot committing bet with less than an inside straight draw.
Second, we assume AA will go all-in on the flop no matter what (either calling or going himself).
Third, we assume AK will go all-in if an A or a K spikes.
Questions for y'all to ponder:
1) Do we need more assumptions?
2) What is the best strategy vs. a given x, where x is the likelihood of AA.
3) for what values of X would calling with 7Ts be a profitable play? (I'm assuming it's a continuum, but wouldn't it be funny if x was profitable @ .32) If you say none, you're just not enough of a gambler for me.
4) am I sexy?
thanks,
ben
Lateish (25% left) in a multitable NLH tourney. I've got about 2500, average stack, blinds are 30-60, antes 5, so 140 in the pot .
I'm in cutoff with 710s, and it's folded around to me. I raise the pot, making it 260 to go. The button (similar stack size) reraises quirky amount, 300 more. Pot is 960, I call.
Then it gets fun! I flop an openended straight-flush draw, making me a favorite against whatever trash he's holding. I immediately go all-in. He calls. I hit the straight, and he shows AA, and the table is in disbelief that I called his raise.
I'm not too interested in my gameplay here (yes, I'll agree, loose call), but I'll tell you what I was thinking: I was "pretty certain" that he had AK, since I'd just seen this person make small quirky preflop raises with that hand and had thought to myself how silly it was not to raise at least the pot with it. I had a small, reserved feeling that he might be trying to take advantage of the fact that he'd just been caught doing that, and was raising with a monster AA or KK -- but I thought he wasn't sophisticated enough. So I was wrong.. this is going to lead to my question.
(And in case you're wondering why the raise with 710s in the first place, this was the type of tourney you could blindsteal with 72o profitably.)
Okay, so here's the point - this hand got me thinking about "face-up" questions. I.e., if my opponent turned his hand face-up, when can I call, etc.?
First question: What hands of his could I call, face-up? (for this, I mean, where I know what his hand is, but he doesn't know that I know what his hand is)
Obviously I can call if I know he's got AK, since I can get away from my hand, and I'm pretty good at exerting pressure, etc.
Given the stack sizes, and careful contemplation, I'm pretty certain I can't call if he's got aces -- there are too few flops that give me a big enough edge to make it worth while (even 2 pair or an openended straight-flush draw are only somewhat profitable), and, there's no way you get him out -- I'd have to show down the best hand. (To this end, is there any stack size in which calling against AA would be profitable with this hand? At some point, it must reach terminal velocity -- that is, I could no longer count on getting the whole thing if I flopped my monster. I tend to think no.)
But what about other hands, like KK, QQ, or JJ? With these, it would be reasonably simple to exploit the knowledge and get the person to fold. Some people are stubborn with KK, even when an ace falls, but people will usually fold JJ against an overcard (or even a paired board). There are also implied odds, since the pressure-exerting is most likely going to come from a checkraise. I'm tempted to say that a call against QQ or JJ is just fine.
2nd question: What about mixed combinations? There are some interesting situations that arise.
If I happen to know, for example, that my opponent is playing either QQ or JJ, I can still call, I think. But there are some interesting ones: If I know my opponent has either AK or QQ, with equal likelihood, it's essentially the same as being against AA, and cleary unprofitable (hough taking either individually would be fine).
If I think my opponent has either AK or JJ, with equal likelihood, I think this would be marginal, but with great confidence, it could be done by a skilled player. Further, if we increase the likelihood of AK relative to JJ, the play would become even easier.
Which brings us back to my actual example: What about a case of AK and AA? If the likelihood of AA is very high, this quickly becomes unprofitable, which brings me to my
MAIN QUESTION: What percentage chance of AA in an AA-AK mix makes chasing a positive e.v. play? It's complicated, but should be mathematically relatively attainable. First, we'd have to figure out the maximum pos e.v. strategy vs. a given mix, for which we need certain assumptions:
First, we assume AK will fold to a pot committing bet with less than an inside straight draw.
Second, we assume AA will go all-in on the flop no matter what (either calling or going himself).
Third, we assume AK will go all-in if an A or a K spikes.
Questions for y'all to ponder:
1) Do we need more assumptions?
2) What is the best strategy vs. a given x, where x is the likelihood of AA.
3) for what values of X would calling with 7Ts be a profitable play? (I'm assuming it's a continuum, but wouldn't it be funny if x was profitable @ .32) If you say none, you're just not enough of a gambler for me.
4) am I sexy?
thanks,
ben