Random Thoughts

[Jason Strasser]

After my recent experience with the 30s, I have some really general observations. Here are some spots where I felt like a good player has a huge edge over crappy players:

1) Some players at lower level sngs do not understand basic pot odds (duh). This is most apparent when a situation arises involving the blinds. I will never fold to an all-in bet that is less than a 1xBB raise (better than 3:1) if I am heads up in the BB. I generally will also never pass on anything better than 2:1. No one is good enough with the type of stacks that are present towards the end of a tournament to pass on these types of odds. Get used to calling with 32o, 95o, etc., because it will make you money. I have seen some brutal folds by opponents at this level.

2) Push your edges early. I can not stress this enough. Never tell yourself "it's too early to do XYZ", that is not a justification. It is a mistake to say "let the morons bust themselves out early", because it could be you doing the busting. Plus losing early is really not bad for your hourly earn.

3) Don't slowplay often. It just isn't necessary. Bet flops. Be prepared to back your stack with as little as a pair in many situations.

4) Don't expect people to fold, especially limpers late. Often times opponents are not trapping, but just limping and then calling their stack off with weak hands. Don't be surprised. Value bet in this spot, don't try crazy strassa crap.

5) When you are heads up, push a ton of hands, and don't get blinded out. I am a believer in making a stand with absolute crap rather than get blinded away waiting for something. My general rule in the 200s was that when I was below 2000 I would push everything and call everything (blinds usually around 300/600). Heads up is a situation where pushing every hand is not too far from optimal, and passive players will get burned. Never EVER with short stacks make a raise where you plan to fold to a reraise. Just push in the first place, or fold (the exception is with small blinds if your tourny went fast).

Thoughts? Additions?
-Jason

[stupidsucker]

With you at the 30s perhaps its time I move to the 50s to avoid you.

[Jason Strasser]

Im done with the 30s.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
2) Push your edges early. I can not stress this enough. Never tell yourself "it's too early to do XYZ", that is not a justification. It is a mistake to say "let the morons bust themselves out early", because it could be you doing the busting. Plus losing early is really not bad for your hourly earn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean that you're willing to put all your chips in with a pair vs likely overcards in the first couple of orbits? Is it ever correct to pass these kinds of edges in party's structure at low limits?

[stupidsucker]

1) Some players at lower level sngs do not understand basic pot odds (duh). This is most apparent when a situation arises involving the blinds. I will never fold to an all-in bet that is less than a 1xBB raise (better than 3:1) if I am heads up in the BB. I generally will also never pass on anything better than 2:1. No one is good enough with the type of stacks that are present towards the end of a tournament to pass on these types of odds. Get used to calling with 32o, 95o, etc., because it will make you money. I have seen some brutal folds by opponents at this level.

I agree with this with a few exceptions. If you are the BIG STACK you of course want to let that low stack stay alive. This tends to piss off the others in the game. ALso what about when there are two short stacks you being one of them. do you really want to call off enough chips to criple you just because of pot odds? I have found its better to wait for the FE. I only call those pot odds if I can sustain the damage myself. Am I wrong to do this?

2) Push your edges early. I can not stress this enough. Never tell yourself "it's too early to do XYZ", that is not a justification. It is a mistake to say "let the morons bust themselves out early", because it could be you doing the busting. Plus losing early is really not bad for your hourly earn.

I am not sure exactly what you mean here. Do you mean push in the literal sense?

3) Don't slowplay often. It just isn't necessary. Bet flops. Be prepared to back your stack with as little as a pair in many situations.

I agree completely with the small exception of huge flopped monsters I try to extract a little more. Kinda depends on how aggressive my opponents have been, and weather or not I have the lead going into the flop. People that slowplay aces deserve to get them cracked.

4) Don't expect people to fold, especially limpers late. Often times opponents are not trapping, but just limping and then calling their stack off with weak hands. Don't be surprised. Value bet in this spot, don't try crazy strassa crap.

Define crazy Strassa crap hehe. I think I may be in the same boat. Value betting is key because a lot of times people will try to come over the top and lose big. ALso when you push too much you create a loose image if they dont call. This is disaster for when you need to steal blinds.

5) When you are heads up, push a ton of hands, and don't get blinded out. I am a believer in making a stand with absolute crap rather than get blinded away waiting for something. My general rule in the 200s was that when I was below 2000 I would push everything and call everything (blinds usually around 300/600). Heads up is a situation where pushing every hand is not too far from optimal, and passive players will get burned. Never EVER with short stacks make a raise where you plan to fold to a reraise. Just push in the first place, or fold (the exception is with small blinds if your tourny went fast).

I agree that HU aggression is key. the blinds get brutal and if you are short at all you cant wait for a hand. Steal those blinds and be prepared to suck out or start a new tourney if you get called.

[wmajik]

Just wanted to add that I wrote an article about blind stealing that may be pertinent to this discussion. In short, it gives a mathematical argument for pushing marginal (and junk) hands in many late game situations (especially in 800 chip starting games).

http://teamfu.freeshell.org/tournament/theorem_blind_stealing.html

There's a lot more to be said about this topic, as waiting and dominating an opponent may be higher overall EV if applied properly; but I believe the strategy in the article is still sound.

As an addition to general $30 strategy, pockets pairs have obscene implied value. They're callable from any position early game. Calling 2BB or 2.5BB cold is not an issue either I'd say, as the initial raiser is a highly likely candidate to pay you out if you hit your set.

[AleoMagus]

I've said it before on here but have never really know who to say it to - That whole site is excellent. One of the best poker resources on the web.

As for that article... Upon finishing it, I took a deep breath and out loud said "WOW!"

I don't know if I'm prepared to fully agree with a lot of what I see as implications. Still... WOW. I will be thinking about this for the rest of my evening at least. I hope I (or someone else) post again about this soon as a discussion is in order in my opinion. Then again, if there is a lot of truth in this, maybe we should just stop talking about it right now.

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

Good post

You really hit on what most players are doing wrong at these levels. Everyone is so busy trying not to bust and almost all of these mistakes are a result.

I particularly think that point #2 applies to even good players (more so actually). I see a lot of people talking about folds and weak bets/calls in the early stages that I think are a mistake.

Regards
Brad S

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I've said it before on here but have never really know who to say it to - That whole site is excellent. One of the best poker resources on the web.

As for that article... Upon finishing it, I took a deep breath and out loud said "WOW!"

I don't know if I'm prepared to fully agree with a lot of what I see as implications. Still... WOW. I will be thinking about this for the rest of my evening at least. I hope I (or someone else) post again about this soon as a discussion is in order in my opinion. Then again, if there is a lot of truth in this, maybe we should just stop talking about it right now.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this article sort of skirts around the keys-to-the-kingdom of SnG strategy, sort of getting it, but not really. +chipEV != +$EV is the first major weakness with the presentation as I see it.

eastbay

[housenuts]

as 2 other posters mentioned i'm not sure what you mean by this:
2) Push your edges early. I can not stress this enough. Never tell yourself "it's too early to do XYZ", that is not a justification. It is a mistake to say "let the morons bust themselves out early", because it could be you doing the busting. Plus losing early is really not bad for your hourly earn.

what do you consider to be your edges? do you mean say you raise with AK at 15/30 blinds, and someone re-raises, do you say it's not too early in the tourney to be pushing all-in?

[Zelcious]

I totally agree with you eastbay, the fact the article only talks about chip wise and not money wise makes it pretty useless. If however the author would analyze it with ICM it would be a very interresting article and an extremely useful one. Equally interresting would be an analyzis from the button or even CO.

[rachelwxm]

Great stuff!
You should give us a lecture on this. This project is worth a Nobel prize for Poker. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ilya]

I've got to agree with eastbay and Zelcious; I think the advice in this article is dangerous. It presents the kind of thinking that will lead you to open-push 10xBB in the SB with A2o when it's 6-handed. +CEV, sure, but probably not +$EV.
I think that for players who are having trouble loosening up on the bubble, a safer piece of general advice would be: push ATC when you have 4-6xBB and it's folded to you in the SB. I think even this very narrow rule can bump up the ROI of a too-tight player by a couple percentage points.