Greg Raymer hand last night on P-stars..what do you think?

[KKsuited]

A table and about 20 railbirds had a discussion with Greg about how he
played a hand in the $100 rebuy tourney on P-stars. Here it is:

About 37 people left (18 get paid), Greg has about $25k (about average
stack) either one or 2 off the button. Greg raises to 2k, button calls
(has about 30k), small blind pushes in for a total of $5k. Greg
reraises all-in for a total of 25k. Button goes in the tank, then
folds.

Raymer shows KQs vs K7s. The guy hits his 7 and wins the pot. Now the
big blind is pissed b/c she had 99. She says she would have won and
eliminated the other player.

Raymer says he knew the girl would fold unless she was trapping with her
first call. About 10 railbirds start questioning Greg's move.

I understand wanting to isolate the player and hoping for 2 overs, but
what was confusing was someone asked why he would do that with a weak
hand. Greg said it would be even more correct to do with 2,3s.

Why is that? I understand the KQ, but not 2,3. I guess it has to do
with not potentially being dominated by AK and also having a better str8
draw. To high a chance the KQ str8 would be beat by a bigger str8?

Any thoughts on either situation? This type of play is discussed in SS,
but I'm not sure I understand.

[fnurt]

That's hilarious, Greg isolates an utterly dominated hand, with a nice overlay of bonus money from the button to boot, and he gets bitched at because he played the hand with his own best interests in mind, instead of someone else's?

This play is actually pretty standard. As for doing it with 23s, the concept is that if you have odds to call the all-in, you'd rather be heads up than let another live player, with a better hand than yours to boot, join the party.

[KKsuited]

I understand getting the other person out, but I don't get the having a 2,3 would be better than KQ. I guess he was getting about 4-1 and he was saying 2,3 had a better chance of being 4-1 or less? If your KQ was dominated by AK, you'd be worse than 4-1? That's what I think he meant, but not sure. Maybe he'll come on here and help us out.

[La Brujita]

I agree with fnurt that this is pretty darn funny. Perhaps Greg should have just checked it down to the river to make sure he eliminated the other opponent. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Basically to answer in other words, it wouldn't necessarily be better to do this with 2-3 if you didn't know the other big stack was going to fold. It would depend on folding equity (given that you have odds to make the call in the first place). The reason he said it was better was the likelihood of button folding.

The other reason it is potentially better is (depending on stack sizes) the better your hand the less you want your opponent to fold-especially if opponent plays pretty straightforward. That is basically because you may well be in a situation where the call is unprofitable for them so you don't want a fold.

In other words you would be less likely to move in with AA than kqs.

[betgo]

If the initial caller with 99 had a big hand, she probably would have initially raised, so I think it is a good move. I love these people criticizing the play of a world champion.

The small stack push with K7 seems questionable. I think he could wait for a better opportunity. He is almost certain to be called. Of course, if he knew Raymer would push, then he is getting decent pot odds, so it might be a cleaver play.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
To high a chance the KQ str8 would be beat by a bigger str8?

[/ QUOTE ]

Please give an example of this.

[fnord_too]

This is a very good play. For a discussion of a rather similar play, see this davidross thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=969127&Forum= f9&Words=pushed&Searchpage=0&Limit=1000&Main=96912 7&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=220&daterange=1&n ewerval=5&newertype=m&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypre v=#Post969127)

Raymer isn't getting quite the odds on his hand that david got (assuming the button folds, which is a safe assumption,) but still hes getting over 3:1 on the money he is actually risking. If he had a 23 suited or un instead, it is a lot closer in my book. 23o is about a 11:2 dog against an over pair and about 2:1 dog against overcards. (23s is about a 4:1 dog against an overpair). I'm not sure that is +EV on the 3k you are really putting at risk if you are certain the button folds every time. (I'd say a random button folds here ~80% of the time, because some people will just go ahead and call anyway. Against a specific opponent, I'd buy the 100% estimation. Also, I don't play in the stars $100 rebuy, so the number for a random button in that tourney may well indeed be closer to 100%.)

[KKsuited]

I was just throwing the bigger str8 idea out there. Have no idea if that's what Greg meant. What I meant was, with KQ, you could be dominated by AK, with your King being no good and a potentially higher str8. With 2,3, everything is probably live, both pairs and both st8's.

That's just what I was asking if he meant. Doesn't sound to good to me, but I was just putting that out there.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I'm going to change the numbers a little bit, because it was even worse for the all-in, who made a TRULY horrible play. I think the blinds were 400-800 with a 50 ante, 9 or 8-handed. I raise to 2400, button calls, SB now goes all-in for less than 5000, barely a legal raise at all. I think everyone can see how horrible this play is, going all-in with K7 when you are 99.99% guaranteed to get called by at least one, and often two players, both of whom are pretty likely to be ahead of you, and to even have you dominated.

At this point, I know I'm not folding. If this had been a live event, and I had a sense that the button was trapping with a premium hand, then I might have folded. Here, with no such read, I'm not folding. And, since I would be out of position vs. the button on the next three rounds, and never be sure what I needed to hit to beat their hand (which was likely better than mine hot-and-cold), I decided to raise all-in and hope the button folded. I don't dislike the way the button played at all, I think both decisions were fine. While the first call is debatable, it is NOT clearly wrong, especially with position on me and at least 90% of the money left to bet. If I had held a total bluff hand, like 23o, then raising here is even better than with the KQs I did hold, because it's even more important to not leave any chips in play postflop, out of position, against a clearly better hand. Plus, even if I give the SB credit for a real hand (which I mistakenly did at the time), I was getting about 5:1 to play the SB heads-up, clearly a bargain with any two cards. Heck, even if they exposed their overpair, 5:1 odds means I'm not making that big of a mistake anyway.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To high a chance the KQ str8 would be beat by a bigger str8?

[/ QUOTE ]

Please give an example of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board is Q J T 9 x

KQ loses to AK.

[gojacketz]

No doubt that was a good play unless he could put the Button on Aces or Kings, which would be quite difficult. She is the one that screwed up, you can't flat call a raise with a pair of 9s, push or fold period.

Isolating with 32s makes sense, you are getting 4-1 or so and unless BB has pair, you are very much less than a 4-1 underdog.

I don't think he was saying that 32s is better to have in this situation.

Gojacketz

[gojacketz]

Greg,

I don't like the call on the button at all. If stacks were deep enough and I thought I could outplay you after the flop, maybe. But I am not a big fan of having to make tough post-flop decisions against the reigning WSOP Champion when the flop comes down J high. Very dependant on the player making the initial raise, in my opinion.

Gojacketz

[betgo]

I don't think the call with 99 was bad. You have position. There are a lot of good flops for 99, including of course a set.

[gojacketz]

At times, I wouldn't think it that bad of a play, but I think it is very dependent on who the player in front of you is, in this case, it is a WSOP Champion. I definitely know players I would flat call on the button with the 9s, Greg isn't one of them (unless stacks were much deeper than they are in this example).

What do you do if the flop is J high and he leads into you (assuming SB and BB had folded)? Great if you catch a 9 or if the flop comes 7 high.

Gojacketz

[KKsuited]

Although the 99 call wasn't really part of my question, I think is was a really bad flat call. I would atleast reraise to see where I was. She had $30k or so. Greg made it $2k to go, she could have made it $6k to see where Greg was. If he reraises, you fold.

Flat calling hoping to hit a set is a terrible play. What happens when the flop comes 8 high and Greg moves in? Do you call? What about if the flop comes J high? These are situations that are better to avoid.

Thanks for the response Greg.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if the flop is J high and he leads into you (assuming SB and BB had folded)? Great if you catch a 9 or if the flop comes 7 high.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Flat calling hoping to hit a set is a terrible play. What happens when the flop comes 8 high and Greg moves in? Do you call? What about if the flop comes J high? These are situations that are better to avoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why you guys assume there are no good answers to these questions. If the flop comes 8 high, what are you afraid of when you call? A pair better than your 99? Pushing preflop sure wouldn't have fixed that problem!

It is permissible to leave yourself with a postflop decision sometimes, even if you're not going to be 100% sure it's the right one.

[Ryner]

Boy, I hope someday I get famous so that dozens of people watch me everytime I play and always question my moves. Oh boy!

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why you guys assume there are no good answers to these questions. If the flop comes 8 high, what are you afraid of when you call? A pair better than your 99? Pushing preflop sure wouldn't have fixed that problem!

It is permissible to leave yourself with a postflop decision sometimes, even if you're not going to be 100% sure it's the right one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[/contributes]

[Potowame]

[ QUOTE ]


It is permissible to leave yourself with a postflop decision sometimes, even if you're not going to be 100% sure it's the right one.



[/ QUOTE ]

Its pretty hard to win without making a few tough, post flop decesions.

[betgo]

If you flat call and the flop comes 8 high, I would probably fold if Raymer moves in (unless it is 8763 or something like that). However, you have position, so you have a good chance of picking up the pot after the flop.

If you reraise, and Raymer comes over the top, you probably have to throw away 99.

I would be more inclined to reraise with ace-paint as a semibluff to pick up the pot. A medium pair is a good hand to flat call with.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


It is permissible to leave yourself with a postflop decision sometimes, even if you're not going to be 100% sure it's the right one.



[/ QUOTE ]

Its pretty hard to win without making a few tough, post flop decesions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[/contributes more]

[gojacketz]

You can't get away from that if it comes 8 high, can you? That would be tough. I definitely don't have him on a big pair, I have him on any two as he was first in in the cutoff - which is precisely the reason I am raising on the button with a legitimate hand.

Granted, if he does reraise all in preflop, I have to lay it down. But do you think he makes that play with KQs?

You do have position, but you are most likely going to be facing a bet on most flops and reraising all-in is going to be your only chance of picking up this pot.

Gojacketz

[Potowame]

(99) is going to be hard to play against any player, and you can multiply that by a few times against a top pro.

Your reraise sounds great , but I see a major problem with it in this senerio.

What if Greg Flat calls your reraise, to say T6500. You now have T6500 in the pot and still looking for a flop that makes you feel comfortable with (99). Does this give you any better post flop feel for where you are at? Does this make you auto fold to a 3/4 pot size bet on the flop?

So I see the flat call being okay here, just because it gives a lot more room for the CO to get away from the hand or put greg to a decesion after the flop. I would have to go with a flat call . The call looking to put Greg to a hard call on a 1 Paint flop. JMO

[KKsuited]

I think the reraise makes the flop bet a little easier. If Greg flat calls, then I put him on a decent hand, maybe 10,10 or J,J. If the flop comes 8 high and Greg moves in, I can have an easier time getting away from the hand. If I don't reraise and miss the chance to see his strength, I have a hard time folding to the 8 high flop. If the flop comes 8 high or say J high and Greg checks, I move in.

The reraise tells me he has strength (if he calls), but he could have AK or KQ (which KQ is not very strong) if he checks, I end it right there. If he slowplayed KK,AA, that's fine I'll go watch TV or something.

[gojacketz]

What hand do you think a good player would call your reraise with in that situation?

Gojacketz

[KKsuited]

As I posted above, I would think a pretty good hand, 10's or better.

I'd like to know how Greg would have played the 9's in that situation. If I had to guess, I might think huge reraise to force the KQ out, then he takes the whole pot from the K7 all-in.

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
As I posted above, I would think a pretty good hand, 10's or better.

I'd like to know how Greg would have played the 9's in that situation. If I had to guess, I might think huge reraise to force the KQ out, then he takes the whole pot from the K7 all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

with a hand like TT facing a re-raise, thats the best time to make a decision preflop instead of seeing a flop. By calling and pushing, you are folding out all the hands you were ahead of and getting called by the hands that have you beat, a really terrible line.

[joeboe2001]

So if folding the 99 is ok, is it ok to fold TT in the same situation? JJ? QQ? KK? AA? Then why do they call it gambling???

[fnurt]

So if you can't fold the 99, how about 88? 77? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[gojacketz]

Who advocated folding preflop? I think in this situation against a world champion, you have to reraise and put him to a decision, because I have a good feeling you probably won't outplay him after the flop. In this situation, folding may be the second best option (but not a very good one). Calling is an option on deep money and/or if you think you can outplay the cutoff after the flop.

I think you misread something in my last post. I am not saying fold to the initial raise, I am saying if you raise the original bettor and are reraised for all of your chips, you have to lay it down.

You wanna play for all your chips when you are in good shape at this stage of the tourney with 99? If I do, I am sure gonna be the one putting my money in first.

Gambling is good sometimes, but you can't get silly.

Gojacketz

[KKsuited]

Not sure what you're talking about here Roman. I said I thought Greg (or me) would reraise with the 9's, which would drive out the KQ (which would be a coin toss) and put you heads up with the K7, which you would be a pretty big favorite.

Not sure where you got the "drive out the hands that you have beat, leaving only the hands that have you beat." You must have misunderstood.

[betgo]

You can reraise and, if you don't want to play a hand with a strong player, you can fold.

What's wrong with flat calling? If you hit your set, you may win a big pot. If you get an open ended draw or a gutshot plus an overpair, you are probably going to push on the flop. If there are overcards, you fold to a bet by Raymer, but you fire at the pot once if he checks. If there is an underflop and you get action, then you have a decision.

It is too dangerous to reraise allin, since you may be up against a higher pair. You could reraise to 600. Raymer might fold. If he reraises, you have to fold. If he flat calls, he probably has either a higher pair or a strong ace: QQ, JJ, TT, 88, AK, AQ, AJs, ATs, or KQs are likely hands. In that case you play it pretty much the same as above, but you have to be more careful on an underflop. However, it may be harder to get away from since you have more invested. With KQs, Raymer would probably flat call hoping to hit something with the big suited connector, but he might push on a semibluff or fold.

[gojacketz]

I would be very interested to know what hands Greg would have called a reraise from the button in this hand. I wouldn't be surprised if he said "none".

Gojacketz

[TheGremlin]

She complain about greg pushing, she should complain about her folding ! but , she put herself in the position to fold , since she did not rais before... had she raised she might have find herself alone against K7 and greg out of the hand post flop. but this is all specs nothing for sure...

[KKsuited]

That's what I tried to argue, but pretty much got bashed. Most people think she should have just call the first raise, but I thought she should have reraised Greg to show strength. If you do that, Greg would not have reraise all-in and forced her out.

I just think the call, hope you hit a set or can outplay Greg on the flop is a bad play. Any really good player like Greg is going to be aggressive and I think you have to play back at them.

This hand is exactly the type hand Daniel Negreanu had written about on cardplayer. Being the type of player Greg is (and Daniel when he discusses these hands), he can win the pot with a K,Q,J,A or 10. Any over card and he will put a ton of pressure on you on the flop. If you don't show strength you're going to be faced with a big bet on the flop.

[fnurt]

If you are really sure Greg will play like that on the flop, you can make a lot of profit by just calling preflop and coming over the top of his inevitable flop bet, since he rates to not have the overcard he is representing.

Do you get my point? There is no reason to fear predictable aggression.

[KKsuited]

I see your point fnurt, I just don't like to play that way. One, I don't like to flat call a raise in that spot and two, if I'm going to push back an agressive player, I like to do it with a better hand than that.

I understand the call, it's just not how I would play it. I think Greg said he would call also, so obviously I'm in the wrong versus you two. But I'll also say, I'm sure Greg is use to his table image and less people would play back at him when he held the 9's.

Greg might be in a better position if the other guy missed the flop. They might be a little afraid to bet into him. If I was sitting there, they'd probably push in on me. Sometimes I wish I was the raining WSOP Champ.