Red Sox chances

[Toro]

Since this is a Poker Forum, I'll put it this way.

A chip and a chair.

[kyro]

Unfortunately, that one chip is about 1/100th of the BB.

I'll be rooting for them as usual tonight, but at least they didn't get my expectations up in the series.

[M2d]

200BB in play. the Yankees have 8s9s. the board is 8h, 3s, 2s, Ks. the Sox hold 4s6s. The Sox are all in for 1 BB.

[WC64]

If its online we still have a chance since online poker is rigged lol

[daryn]

ok, does anyone want to seriously say what they think the chances are? 2%? 4%?

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, does anyone want to seriously say what they think the chances are? 2%? 4%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, I'd say better than 4%. Pedro's pitching today so they have at least a 50% chance in that game vs Mussina and it's been reported that Schilling had an amazingly good workout and is ready to pitch tomorrow if they win today.

If Schilling is anywhere close to himself they have a decent chance there too. Then it's game 7 and we all know anything can happen in game 7.

Factoring all of the above, I'll put it at 10 to 15 % chance.

[The Dude]

M2d,
1 BB with 200 in play? A la Sklansky that's a 199:1 dog to win. How much money are you willing to put on the series at those odds?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
M2d,
1 BB with 200 in play? A la Sklansky that's a 199:1 dog to win. How much money are you willing to put on the series at those odds?

[/ QUOTE ]a dollar perhaps.

[Toro]

Salty, Gambling 101: Never bet a lot to make a little.

[The Dude]

I already have a SaltCracka dollar. Offer me something I don't have.

[SlyAK]

I agree with Toro- 10-15% chance. If you think that the 2 teams are roughly even talent wise, then just take 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2= 1/8 chance of winning three games straight. 12.5%... but since we are better than the yankees I'll say 15%!!

Sly

[ThaSaltCracka]

I would say a dick, but you appear to be one. Will pubes do?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Salty, Gambling 101: Never bet a lot to make a little.

[/ QUOTE ] you mean like some idiot giving me 30 to 1 on a one dollar bet? I would agree with you Toro.

[M2d]

Sorry, I don't bet sports anymore.

I'd go close to that, though.

BTW, aren't the odds even longer? it's 43-1 against to survive the immediate hand. then, it's 198-2. Quite a parlay.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
I already have a SaltCracka dollar. Offer me something I don't have.


[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, SaltCracka got suckered into mailing you a dollar too? And I thought i was special...Did you ever get mine BTW?

[The Dude]

Yeah, I got yours. It found a special place on my wall. Nice doing business with you.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Toro- 10-15% chance. If you think that the 2 teams are roughly even talent wise, then just take 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2= 1/8 chance of winning three games straight. 12.5%... but since we are better than the yankees I'll say 15%!!

Sly

[/ QUOTE ]

I like math so lets stick with the sly's equation. So their chances now are:

.5 X .5 = .25 = 25%

From where we came from, I'm happy with that!

[Non_Comformist]

I think I factor in homefield for the Yankees and Schilling's uncertainty

.4 * .4 = 16% of the Sox winning the series.

As a Yankee fan I can tell you this is high enough to make me feel like puking.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
As a Yankee fan I can tell you this is high enough to make me feel like puking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well as a Red Sox fan, I got to feel good about that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[daryn]

i put it as high as 35%

[Non_Comformist]

[ QUOTE ]
i put it as high as 35%

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but you are a Redsox fan, who thought "this is the year" My prediction for series was Yankees in 6, which I am sticking too. I also said the series would go abck to NY after game 3. Lesson I am almost always correct in all things baseball.

Chances 16%, Outcome Yankees in 6.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
Lesson I am almost always correct in all things baseball.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be a very rich man then because I understand they allow wagering on these games.

[JinX11]

I do not like you.

[lu_hawk]

if you think the current betting line is accurate then the sox have about a 21% chance of winning the series. so that's about a 46% chance to win each game. the line for tonights game is giving them about a 44% chance although it is interesting that there has been pretty significant movement in favor of the yankees for tonights game since the line was put up last night.