JJ - tilt detector to aisle 5 please

[topspin]

Near the tail end of today's ugly 40BB downswing. Could someone please check this hand for tilt?

I call the flop figuring there's a chance SB is on a flush draw, and folded the turn once he leads into me again with a non-flush card. Given this read, I vaguely wonder if I should have tossed in a flop raise or something and folded the turn if he still leads into me, or something.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

[John White]

Raise the flop for a free card on the turn. Fold if bet into on the turn.

[Shalara]

Wow. My first impulse is to raise this flop.

When I started thinking about it though, I couldn't think of a single good reason. I mean, you probably won't fold anybody since they've already called one bet, so you can't narrow the field. With that many callers, even if someone doesn't have a queen, I imagine your hand is pretty vulnerable. Plus, a queen might not bet or raise here, as people tend to check to the raiser. So you may not have the best hand. A raise won't protect it, either.

But you do have a backdoor flush draw. And the pot is pretty sizable. Shoot, you nearly have enough to go for your set (if the pot offers me around 17 or 18 to one, I call for a set anyway--implied odds, etc.) So I guess a call is a better choice. I'd really like to see other people weigh in on this though, because I am really not sure.

[topspin]

My concern about raising was that, given my show of strength preflop, it's not unlikely that if SB is betting a Q he'll just call the raise and check-call down, in which case I end up pushing an underpair the whole way down. It's also not impossible that one of the other jokers hanging around has a Q even if SB doesn't. I settled on calling and folding to a turn raise on a non-flush card as my plan for "reading" if villain has a Q.

I'm pretty uncertain about this though and I certainly can't say that a raise isn't better. I'm very curious about what other people think about this.

[elindauer]

You called the flop looking to turn a set and missed. Perfectly played.

Good luck.
Eric

[77rules]

You're getting 16:1 calling on the flop. If you hit your set on the turn, that's good for a minimum of 2 BB's/4 SB's, but probably more. So you're getting implied odds to chase the set.

Given the pre flop action, SB most likely hit top pair/fair kicker (he'd probably C/R or C/call a set/two pair). In any case, he's not going anywhere even if you raise. What a raise will do is make everybody check/fold to you on the turn _or_ if SB bets out on the turn, make them fold. In other words, if you do hit your set, you'll win a smaller pot if you raise.

In short - calling is good, raising isn't.

Folding on the turn is a no brainer.

[Peter Harris]

played to perfection. raising the flop is an error.

Regards,
Pete Harris

[helpmeout]

Raise the flop for a freecard.

1. You could be ahead
2. You are on the button so a freecard play is likely to work.
3. You are 23/1 to improve on the turn but about 12/1 to improve by the river.

Folding doesnt hurt though.

[LaggyLou]

I agree with those that say call rather than raise. Let's say you call and hit. SB is likely to bet out again, and there will be many callers in between. Then you pop it while your equity is at its highest. In my view you want to keep the callers in to help your implied odds, particularly inasmuch as there are likely (with this many players) flush redraws out there.

[topspin]

Thanks to everyone that weighed in; I'm glad I'm not the only one that plays the hand this way. The way the hand turned out didn't help improve my mood much last night though /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

River: (11.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP1 has Td 9d (one pair, tens).
SB has Ad 6h (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: MP1 wins 13.50 BB. </font>

[John White]

So now they'll bet into your PFR every single time. What's your response?

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
So now they'll bet into your PFR every single time. What's your response?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're giving the table too much credit; I find it much more likely that SB in this hand decided to get his LAG on. At these levels implicit collusion usually does a good job of keeping people honest, but obviously once you read someone as a maniac you call them down more.

[TheHip41]

If you raised the flop, you'd have a lot better idea how good your hand is. If you raise the flop, and the SB 3-bets it, and the turn isn't a J, easy fold. If you raise, and they all just call, I'd bet the turn and fold to a raise. you might still be ahead here.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the pre flop action, SB most likely hit top pair/fair kicker (he'd probably C/R or C/call a set/two pair). In any case, he's not going anywhere even if you raise. What a raise will do is make everybody check/fold to you on the turn _or_ if SB bets out on the turn, make them fold. In other words, if you do hit your set, you'll win a smaller pot if you raise.

In short - calling is good, raising isn't.

Folding on the turn is a no brainer.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is so weak. So when SB turns over A-9, and takes it, then what?

Raise the flop, you have a good hand. If you get re raised, there you go, you are behind. If you don't hit the set, get out. If they just call your bet, just check the turn if you want, free river for another chance at a J.

Just calling with your hand is weak here.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're giving the table too much credit; I find it much more likely that SB in this hand decided to get his LAG on. At these levels implicit collusion usually does a good job of keeping people honest, but obviously once you read someone as a maniac you call them down more.

[/ QUOTE ]


What are you talking about 'read' You have the best hand, just raise the flop. If, IF he has a Q-good kicker he will probably 3-bet you. Or if not, just call, then check to you, then you check behind. Then he bluff bets the river, you snap it off, u win.


I'm not being results oriented here, but if you raised the flop, in this nice size pot, you would have won. Don't fear the fishes. Just cause they bet doesn't mean they have dick.

[Jaran]

Hey topspin,
On the flop, I think you need to either raise or fold. Did you have any read on SB? My standard line is to raise. If he 3bets, I call and fold the turn UI. If he calls and checks the turn, either I take the free card or bet depending on how many people are still in the pot and what my reads are on them, and what card falls (i.e. rag, flush, etc). The one line from the SB I have trouble deciding on in this case would be a stop-n-go, but I think I fold, as this tends to indicate at least top pair most of the time.

-Jaran

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey topspin,
On the flop, I think you need to either raise or fold. Did you have any read on SB? My standard line is to raise. If he 3bets, I call and fold the turn UI. If he calls and checks the turn, either I take the free card or bet depending on how many people are still in the pot and what my reads are on them, and what card falls (i.e. rag, flush, etc). The one line from the SB I have trouble deciding on in this case would be a stop-n-go, but I think I fold, as this tends to indicate at least top pair most of the time.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

Pocket pairs are tough for me also when an overcard hits the board. I think this line of reasoning makes the most sense to me.

Jaran, I assume you bet the flop if its checked to you? If there has been a bet and raise on the flop when it gets to you, do you fold?

[Jaran]

Jaran, I assume you bet the flop if its checked to you? If there has been a bet and raise on the flop when it gets to you, do you fold?

Yes, I bet if it's been checked to me. If there is a bet and a raise in front of me, I'm assuming one flushdraw and one at least top pair (dependant, of course, on any reads), and can safely lay down my 2 outer.

-Jaran

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey topspin,
On the flop, I think you need to either raise or fold. Did you have any read on SB? My standard line is to raise. If he 3bets, I call and fold the turn UI. If he calls and checks the turn, either I take the free card or bet depending on how many people are still in the pot and what my reads are on them, and what card falls (i.e. rag, flush, etc). The one line from the SB I have trouble deciding on in this case would be a stop-n-go, but I think I fold, as this tends to indicate at least top pair most of the time.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, except don't you dare fold that flop.. calling is far better. do you see why? its not even close.. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i would raise this as a default. all the callers on a rag (rankwise) flop is a bit of a concern. at PP 1/2 I would probably just call here and plan to turn my set.

[John White]

Thought of you last night:


PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 11 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 11 BB, between Hero and UTG+1.</font>

[LowDown22]

I would play it exactly the same.

A flop raise here would be the other option but I don't like it. What does it accomplish? Do you really think you have the best hand after getting bet into and 3 callers? Seems unlikely. Are you going to drive out any overcards? No, they already called one, very little chance of folding for one more. Are you buying a free card? I don't think your draws are good enough here to try it.

[chaz64]

I’ve tried to analyze this logically. Someone tell me where I’m off:

The more opponents you have, the more likely the overcard hit someone, so you should fold. But the more opponents you have the bigger the pot is, so you should hang in there. So, that’s no help…

You are either ahead, or behind. If you’re ahead, you should raise – you get more money in the pot, which is what you want if you have the best hand.

If you are behind…you should fold, since the pot odds don’t justify chasing a set. But with implied odds, chasing is justified, so you should call. If you call, you will likely not turn your set, get bet into again and have to call it down because the pot is so big. Calling flop turn and river costs you 2.5 BB. If you raise the flop and just get called you will likely get checked to on the turn, now your cost to get to showdown is likely 2 BB - the “free card.” If you are behind and are re-raised on the flop, you call the 3-bet and if the turn does not help you, you check-fold, costing you 1.5 BB.

So, raising would make the most sense to me.