Scared

[ddubois]

I played some more today and had another hand in which I pulled the "chicken-out and call the raise when I should re-raise or push" move, like I did in this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1136378&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1).

I find myself playing alot more scared when the money is deep. If villan here only had 100, it would have been no big deal, I would have felt comfortable re-raising on the flop, and if he has the 1st or 2nd nut flush, or if he sucks out with a set or a single A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, so be it. But with stacks this huge, I am scared of risking 300 even as a 2:1 favorite. Maybe I should stand up and sit back down with 100 when my stack gets too big? So anyway, I just called, hoping the turn would be a blank, hoping I would be able to get into a raising war as a 4:1 favorite instead (still risking a loss to a better flopped flush, of course). Thus, this line:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($130.15)
MP1 ($89.05)
MP2 ($328.05)
MP3 ($102.2)
CO ($89.65)
Button ($75.08)
SB ($146.67)
Hero ($322.95)
UTG ($119.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $2, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $2, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($8) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to $25</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($58) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

<font color="CC3333">F#(K!!!</font>

<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $50</font>, MP2 raises $301.05 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $409.05
<font color="green">Main Pot: $409.05, returned to MP2.</font>

What really sucks is, it's entirely possible I folded the better hand. He might have thought his A3 or A5 was good. Now that I think about it, in retrospect, that big flop raise sure doesn't look like a made nut flush, does it?

So, assuming I am supposed to re-raise the flop, how much would I raise it to? If I raise it to X, and he calls, what's the line on the turn when the board pairs, assuming he pushes whatever I bet?

[TheGrifter]

There are a lot of different lines you could take with this hand, but this is the one I like.

When he raises 25, raise 100 more on top. This puts him in a difficult situation. If he flat calls you're going to put the rest of your money in on the turn when a blank comes. A big flush is unlikely given his action so if he re-raises, call.

I think he was feeling you out with the 25 dollar raise and he'll fold most of the time to a 100 dollar re-raise.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he was feeling you out with the 25 dollar raise and he'll fold most of the time to a 100 dollar re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the response. How much do I want him to fold? What's the rationale behhind the 100 raise, instead of something smaller? 100 seems like it would blow hands I destroy (A/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, etc.) out of the water... and only made sets, made flushes, or good made hands with the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif redraw would call, which is the range of hands I'm cowering in fear of.

[TheGrifter]

While it would be great to get maximum value out of all those hands, the best chance you have of getting paid off here is by a straight, a smaller made flush, a set or a draw. Overpairs with a spade might come along as well. The problem is, you don't know what card hurts you on the turn.

A pot sized re-raise is only 60 dollars, I think you want to overbet here a bit because the money is a little deeper and you want to put him to a decision. Basically, any decision he makes at this point you're okay with...if he calls you push on most turn cards, if he re-raises you call, if he folds that's okay too.

[AlmightyJay]

The best poker advice I've received is "You can't live in fear of the nuts."

You can't immediately assume everyone who raises you has the nuts. It's very -EV /images/graemlins/smile.gif