A head scratcher

[Schneids]

Gonores says this hand was routine. I don't think so. So, I'm posting it anyway.


SB posts small blind [$5].
BB posts big blind [$10].
UTG posts big blind + dead [$15].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Schneids [ Kc Ac ]
UTG checks.
Schneids raises [$20].
Gonores raises [$30].
SB folds.
BB calls [$20].
UTG calls [$20].
Schneids raises [$20].
Gonores calls [$10].
BB calls [$10].
UTG calls [$10].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, Qd, Ah ]
BB checks.
UTG checks.
Schneids bets [$10].
Gonores raises [$20].
BB calls [$20].
UTG calls [$20].
Schneids calls [$10].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
BB checks.
UTG checks.
Schneids bets [$20].
Gonores calls [$20].
BB calls [$20].
UTG calls [$20].

** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
BB checks.
UTG checks.
Schneids checks...

[chio]

ok i'll be first

it seems like you missed a lot of value by not 3betting the flop, as gonores is in position to check behind the turn with a flush draw or big pair, fearing that at least one of you has the ace.

given the way you played it, the river check is awesome, seeing the action in front of you to see if the flush draw got there, or if gonores just bets and the others call, you can c/r and gain 6 BB on the river. nice.

[Dov]

I don't see anything wrong with it. I would Check - call the river.

[DrGutshot]

3bet this flop if you suspect him on a draw...right?
betting out turn=I like
checking river=I like

-DrG

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
if gonores just bets and the others call, you can c/r and gain 6 BB on the river. nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Gonores bets the river I really have to begin fearing he can beat AK. If he bet the river there's no way I'd c/r as I am really hoping for a chop at best.

[SlantNGo]

I think it's better to stop & go on the turn if a rag falls than to 3-bet the flop. No one will fold to your 3-bet, so it's purely a value raise, however, if a fourth heart falls on the turn, your hand is very possibly no good so I don't like raising for value here. Hence, just call the flop raise, see the turn card. Good turn card, bet the turn, bad turn card, check/fold.

I think you played it perfectly Schneids.

[stripsqueez]

i reckon its a bit weird

i dont see a sufficent reason not to 3 bet the flop - getting 3/1 for your money how scared can you be ?

when a flush hits on the river and 3 guys paid a heap to get here i'm scared enough to check/call

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[7Dave]

Do u think u r behind Gonores but not sure and bet the turn to find out or drive out the other guys? What if he raises the turn?

/d

[DyessMan89]

I would have played it the same, although 3-betting the flop would have been a thought.

[Peter_rus]

Not 3-betting flop with this hand especially with 3 people is a crime i think.

[chio]

i'm having a really hard time putting gonores on a hand that would 3bet PF, raise the flop, and then just call the turn when he is in perfect position to face other 2 guys with 2 cold.

it seems like there's no way he'd just call with a monster on the turn like AQ or QQ, and i'm sure he'd raise decent hand like AK or AJ, and fold a hand like KK.

[ QUOTE ]
If Gonores bets the river I really have to begin fearing he can beat AK

[/ QUOTE ]
the ONLY hand i could put him on here would be KhQh (i seriously doubt that he would 3bet your MP raise with KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, or JhTh), and that seems like too specific a read. however, this may be one of those times where nothing else makes sense at all and we have to put him on that hand

[ QUOTE ]
If he bet the river there's no way I'd c/r as I am really hoping for a chop at best.

[/ QUOTE ]
one things for sure, there's no way he has AK, he would have been pounding that raise button on the turn, unless he misclicked somewhere in the hand

so i guess i change my mind, if he bets the river, calling one bet back to you is better because i can't put him on any other hand. i still would have 3bet the flop, though, any reason you didn't?

however, i'm beginning to wonder if bet and fold to a river raise would have been a better play, as most players call 2 cold on the flop with any ace or queen and you're missing too much value checking here and watching gonores check behind with AJ, KK, or some other misplayed hand

so in conclusion, a head scratcher indeed

[gonores]

re: 3betting the flop. Schneids is in a spot here where he needs to take a shot at knocking out gutshooters and middle-pair holders on the turn. By just calling my raise on the flop, he can lead at the turn and hope I raise again, which would offer the other two players 7.5:1.


The pot is ginormous...Schneids' first job is to do what he can to win the pot.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's better to stop & go on the turn if a rag falls than to 3-bet the flop. No one will fold to your 3-bet, so it's purely a value raise, however, if a fourth heart falls on the turn, your hand is very possibly no good so I don't like raising for value here. Hence, just call the flop raise, see the turn card. Good turn card, bet the turn, bad turn card, check/fold.

I think you played it perfectly Schneids.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a stop and go would be better if there were more "bad" turn cards for schneids. right now there's only a flush draw and gutshot out there. let's see a reasonable worst case scenario:

(1) gonores has KhQh - 9 flush outs + 2 queen outs
(2) BB has a weaker ace - 3 outs
(3) UTG has something like KJ or KT - 4 straight outs

that's 18 collective outs against schneids on the next card, giving him 29 outs against the field on the turn. add-in the fact that he's getting 3-1 on his raise, and to me it seems like lots of money being lost here.

there are some reverse implied odds at work here, but the flush will be easy to spot if i gets there. also, don't forget schneids is in even better shape if more than 1 person has a flush draw or no one has the flush draw, both of which are possible.

the board's not dangerous enough to make me stop on the flop - the only time i'd stop and go here is if i believed there was a decent chance that i was already behind, i.e. fear the coldcallers because they play really tight or give gonores too much respect

i would give some thought to check raising the field on a non flush turn card, charging them double, but gonores is in position to check behind on the turn (very likely since his flop raise didn't knock anyone out), and with 4 players in the pot that would be disasterous

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
What if he raises the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly what you want to happen.

cheers!

[gonores]

I narrowed Schneids down to exactly one hand after he bet the turn...AK. I called getting effectively 15:1 to spike a 3-outer with my AJ (I think I had the Jh too, so my outs were clean). I honestly think I could have found a fold on the river if Schneids fired once more.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]

that's 18 collective outs against schneids on the next card, giving him 29 outs against the field on the turn. add-in the fact that he's getting 3-1 on his raise, and to me it seems like lots of money being lost here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are forgetting that they have two chances left to hit those 18 outs. So really, we'll call it ~36/46 of the time someone in the field has a better hand than me on the river... Looking at it like that, me getting 3:1 money on a flop reraise is not so hot given the likelihood my hand is no good at the river. I really do not have substantial equity against the entire field on the flop; plus, there are going to be a few instances when Gonores has AQ or QQ.

[7Dave]

I get the point but if gonores raise the turn, where does that leave you?

/d

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
You are forgetting that they have two chances left to hit those 18 outs. So really, we'll call it ~36/46 of the time someone in the field has a better hand than me on the river... Looking at it like that, me getting 3:1 money on a flop reraise is not so hot given the likelihood my hand is no good at the river

[/ QUOTE ]

i doubt its 18 collective outs - in addition to the fact i think its a pessimistic assessment some of the outs upon which that figure is based overlap - you have redraws against many of those outs - i am always keen to punish weaker A's because they are very common

answer the simple question whether a flop 3 bet results in positive equity for your hand and the answer is yes - if by not 3 betting you were accruing some decent advantage for the turn then i might agree that its reasonable to spend some of that flop equity but from the front i just want to throw more chips in every time

i think AQ is a prime candidate for gonores but i still think there is + equity in 3 betting the flop (gonores may go broke 3 betting AJ pre-flop against tight players) - when a probable blank hits on the turn isnt a better plan a check raise ? - now you have a truckload of value and very good prospects of catching the field for 2 bets

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Trix]

Think I would have 3bet the flop. I dont like the stop and go. You really think he will raise with something you beat on the turn ?
I´m not really into the river check either as both players besides gonores had blinds. I think you will miss bets from Ax more often that you will be beat here. If they had a flushdraw, then they would often have given some action on the flop.
You not 3betting the flop also makes it harder to put gonores on a hand on the river.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
re: 3betting the flop. Schneids is in a spot here where he needs to take a shot at knocking out gutshooters and middle-pair holders on the turn. By just calling my raise on the flop, he can lead at the turn and hope I raise again, which would offer the other two players 7.5:1.

The pot is ginormous...Schneids' first job is to do what he can to win the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's true, we do have to weigh (1) the extra expectancy gained from 3betting the flop against (2) the extra expentacy gained from increasing his chances of winning the pot - i.e. through knocking others out or charging them more for a draw on the turn by using a stop and go, hoping that you'll raise with a weaker hand

the problem is schneids is not in position to maximize his chances of winning the pot. he has no idea whether you are going to raise the turn if he stops and goes (esp since that will imply a lot of strength from him). and even if you do, most of the time it will be with a hand that has him tied (AK) or has him beat badly (AQ QQ)

my opinion is that the pot is big enough to want to protect, but the percentage of time you'll raise with a weaker hand is just too low for that to be the better play

[ALL1N]

I think that if you're not going to 3-bet the flop, checkraising the turn is the only reasonable line.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
You are forgetting that they have two chances left to hit those 18 outs. So really, we'll call it ~36/46 of the time someone in the field has a better hand than me on the river... Looking at it like that, me getting 3:1 money on a flop reraise is not so hot given the likelihood my hand is no good at the river. I really do not have substantial equity against the entire field on the flop; plus, there are going to be a few instances when Gonores has AQ or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we give the field 18 outs against you, im getting that your hand will be good around 37% of the time on the river. i agree that's not as strong as i previously thought, so a stop and go is reasonable, but 3-1 still looks very profitable right?

especially given the fact that you aren't in position to face the field with 2 cold on the turn, it seems like the best option

yes you could be beaten as well, but they could also have a lot less than 18 outs

[ALL1N]

Dunno if it's important or not, but your worst case scenario (KQhh, KJ, Ax) is only 16 outs.