Database mining and the future of online poker

[fyodor]

Eventually the media will be spilling the beans on datamining. The Poker Bot scare is already happening. It will be like telling all potential fish that the game is *almost* rigged against them. Their opponents are taking the game seriously and have copious notes on everyone's play.

I think the poker sites have to combat this by preventing datamining entirely. They could accomplish this by doing away with player names at the table. Just Seat-1, Seat-2 etc. This could be done so that you still see your own handle in the hand histories and thus could still track your own stats. All your hands would be against the same 10 players though (Seat-1, etc)

I like datamining and I use it every day. I just think in the long term it will negatively affect our ability to make money.

Am I a certifiable paranoid?

I agree 100%. Greed will kill the goose that lays the golden egg. When you think about it, if everyone at the table has my life history when I sit down, the game IS rigged against me! Good post! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Scotch78]

Sorry, no certificate for you, but you can stop sleeping with the lights on. We see all sorts of players whining about rigged sites when they get rivered, but how many of them have you seen actually quit because of it? Fish don't approach the game like we do; for them, cheating is mostly about emotional reassurance, "I'm not a loser, I just got cheated." I think datamining would fall into a similar category for most players. After all, how many of us have friends who've commented on our improvement, then rejected an offer to borrow our 2+2 books?

Scott

PS We read all sorts of articles on poker, and thus know about the pokerbots, but how many fish do you think stay up to date on pokerbots and datamining?

[lorinda]

They may just start playing at a site that doesn't allow it, which would be just fine by me.

Pokerstars stamped it out the second it started to happen, time will tell what Party will do, but I imagine you should fill your databases while you can.

Lori

[ctv1116]

Isn't half of poker reading players? Making all your players anonymous would make online poker even further from "real" poker than it already is.

[Baulucky]

Nah. Too much work. I doubt more than 2% of players will take it seriously.

I beat 1-2, 2-4 for a living and haven't bothered with PokerTracker yet. I will now because it has become very automatic.

I wish I could write a bot to play for me 24-7 at 0.5-1 or even microlimits, because this grinding sucks big time. It almost sucks like being a slave at a job.

Almost...

[goodguy_1]

I just woke up 4:30 pm est after playing my usual all night shift.I can datamine at a minimum 10K hands just while I'm sleeping and thats running only 4 rooms not 5.My system cant handle 5 rooms..
I currently have datamined extensively $3-6 LHE,$1-2 NLHE,$5-10 6MAX and a small batch of $15-30 LHE.

I agree with Lori I cant see this lasting much longer..I cant beleive Party is allowing it at all to tell you the truth.As long as they do i will take advantage of it.

The less we speak of it the better I think..its days are numbered

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I a certifiable paranoid?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

All this data minning will do will make the good players a little better.

There is no comparison with bots, which are a genuine problem but I think ultimatly not a fatel one.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstars stamped it out the second it started to happen

[/ QUOTE ]
When was that? What did PokerStars do to stamp it out?

[lorinda]

When was that? What did PokerStars do to stamp it out?

6-12 months ago.

They changed hand histories so they didn't show mucked cards unless you were seated in the game.

Lori

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
The less we speak of it the better I think..its days are numbered

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not see why. It attacks good players to the site. Good players are what make a site as they stay. The fish don't care, that’s why they are fish.

Also by promoting an open house philosophy, they insure themselves from claims of deal rigging, action flops etc. How can someone construct a believable case for Party deal rigging, where Party make it so easy for anyone to collect and process any and all hands dealt?

The only thing that I expect to happen is that at some point they will delay writing of hand histories until the hand is over: to make it more difficult to write bots.

[DesertCat]

this grinding sucks big time

It sucks being 80 miles from Aruba?

[kiemo]

Easy solution is no hand history or no known hole cards unless you are involved in the hand.

Stars has it right.

[Baulucky]

You bet. It's so much tougher to live in hell, knowing that paradise is just 80 miles away.

[balkii]

I found this odd...you consider pokertracker to be

Too much work

but not

I beat 1-2, 2-4 for a living ?

[Baulucky]

Well. I read 2 books and I started beating 1-2, and 2-4 for a living.

Classifying thousands of players' moves using PT just sounds like a hell of a lot of work. I've read that it (PT) has become nearly-automatic now, so I'll dedicate a few days and $55 to it now.

[1800GAMBLER]

I thought this was gold when it first came out but now i don't think it's worth much at all.

Firstly, i have to include this because most people don't believe it's true, you can beat gaames for +2.5bb/100 (i'm mostly referring to the 15/30) without any player reads, by that i mean multitabling lots of tables and making 'default plays'. Your default plays have to be to a very high level but it is possible.

Secondly, i've watched 12 tables for 5 hours per day (around the hours i play) everyday for the last week and when i sit i still only have notes on ~4 players which isn't that much of an increase.

Thirdl, your plays don't change that much based on someones VP$IP, PFR etc, well ok, they do change, but it's not a great difference, and the point i'm trying to say is, these situations in which you have a huge change in optimal play from one person to the next are very rare. You have JJ/23o/AA/88 in the SB passive/aggressive/loose/whatever player open raises the CO. There's not much of a change.

However, i'd like to include a little increase works out as a lot, if this increases my win rate by 0.2bb/100h that's a nice $939 extra per 40 hours of 6 tabling (a week).

Jay.

[Baulucky]

Nice post. I suspected this. Thanks.

[John White]

What? UTG opens for a raise. UTG+1 folds, and I have AQs UTG+2. You're saying this situation doesn't come up? Or that it's not important to know UTG's PFR% and VP$IP%?

[lefty rosen]

I have had a bunch of two plus two dorks on my tables at Party and I would love for them to predict my play, because once I spot they play sklansky they can't spot what I will slash against them and what position. I worry more about the oblivious fish than a guy who can guess that I have a drawing hand because I didn't raise........

[largeeyes]

[ QUOTE ]
I just woke up 4:30 pm est after playing my usual all night shift.I can datamine at a minimum 10K hands just while I'm sleeping and thats running only 4 rooms not 5.My system cant handle 5 rooms..
I currently have datamined extensively $3-6 LHE,$1-2 NLHE,$5-10 6MAX and a small batch of $15-30 LHE.

I agree with Lori I cant see this lasting much longer..I cant beleive Party is allowing it at all to tell you the truth.As long as they do i will take advantage of it.

The less we speak of it the better I think..its days are numbered

[/ QUOTE ]

You really get that much information from the hand histories? Have you set up filters to classify the players?

[1800GAMBLER]

It's rare and optimal play doesn't change that much unless he has extreme stats.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
It's rare and optimal play doesn't change that much unless he has extreme stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

disagreed. I have notes generally on 7-9 of my opponenets and use them extensively. You said it yourself - something would have to be VERY rare for it not to make a difference. we are, afterall, playing thousands of hands a month.

I would guess that I make a notes based decision every 10-20 hands.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's rare and optimal play doesn't change that much unless he has extreme stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

disagreed. I have notes generally on 7-9 of my opponenets

[/ QUOTE ]

O_O

I find that crazy. Infact, i find that impossible, unless you mean you have notes on 9 players over all your tables? i.e. 9 out of 36?

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
I have had a bunch of two plus two dorks on my tables at Party and I would love for them to predict my play, because once I spot they play sklansky they can't spot what I will slash against them and what position.

[/ QUOTE ]

A case of Fancy Play Syndrome?

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
A case of Fancy Play Syndrome?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, but my favorite part was this:

[ QUOTE ]
I worry more about the oblivious fish than a guy who can guess that I have a drawing hand because I didn't raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Classic.

Martin

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's rare and optimal play doesn't change that much unless he has extreme stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

disagreed. I have notes generally on 7-9 of my opponenets

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm currently playing 6 tables on a saturday morning, my normal playing times are weekday evenings or weekends anytime. I have 6 players on my 6 tables who i dont have notes on. I have over 1k hands on 9 of the players im playing with.

I imagine i could get some other players to back me up, but while i dont think you are calling me a liar, I also dont mknd too much either way.

O_O

I find that crazy. Infact, i find that impossible, unless you mean you have notes on 9 players over all your tables? i.e. 9 out of 36?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im currently playing 6 tables and there are 6 players i dont have notes on. I also have over 1k hands on about 10 of my opponents. not that is a big deal, but if you really dont believe me, Im sure I can find a way to prove it to you. since ive changed my play to a more notes based style and accumulated more hands ive gone on a very nice win streak. im sure ive been blessed a bit more by the poker gods, but i think my overall EV has increased significantly as well. I'll post some stats as soon as I can figure out how to put up a screenshot.

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
Im currently playing 6 tables and there are 6 players i dont have notes on. I also have over 1k hands on about 10 of my opponents. not that is a big deal, but if you really dont believe me, Im sure I can find a way to prove it to you. since ive changed my play to a more notes based style and accumulated more hands ive gone on a very nice win streak. im sure ive been blessed a bit more by the poker gods, but i think my overall EV has increased significantly as well. I'll post some stats as soon as I can figure out how to put up a screenshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have you as up 4.5K from 1600 hands this month. I probably only have about half the 15/30 hands. Still pretty good. You did not seem to be doing so well end of last month.

[stoxtrader]

Last month was certainly not as good as this month. I have played about 8k hands this month so far, so it looks like you are capturing about 15% of my hands...

[grinin]

Can't last long.
I was surprised when Party allowed it.

Besides only allowing players in the hand access to hole cards I would not be surprised if they start using private tables to prevent people from simply opening up multiple tables and recording info from showdowns.

[lefty rosen]

No I know that they will give up hands too easy on brick boards.......

[gergery]

I don't think datamining is all that useful, myself. Maybe Stox can expand on exactly how he uses it.

Personally, I'm playing shorthanded, so i get a good read after 30 hands or so anyway. And have to be at the tables with the people you've datamined on. And they have to have not changed their name. And a hand has to come up that is on the margin where PT will change how you should play it. And it has to be a hand where a PT # can help you. And that margin hand has to make a big EV difference in how you'd play it.

I'll still datamine, since there is some benefit and the cost is merely opening tables then leaving the room, but i don't think its hugely valuable either. Main benefit is VPIP to see what hands they'll play overall.

--greg