What to do against 2+2?

[LinusKS]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed)

MP1 (t2877)
MP2 (t2370)
Hero (t1885)
Button (t1600)
SB (t2383)
BB (t1440)
UTG (t945)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t975) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets t450</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1425

Ordinarily I push here, but the Villian happened to be a regular (hopefully he'll see this.)

Comments?

[lorinda]

Ordinarily I push here, but the Villian happened to be a regular (hopefully he'll see this.)



Oddly, I'd normally fold here, but with it being a regular, the stop/go becomes more possible and I might just stick my chips in.

Lori

[LinusKS]

You normally fold a pair of aces with a T kicker heads-up?

The Villain here put in about half his stack after the flop. He folds to a raise, he has about 500 chips left.

If it was a bluff, it was a terrible, terrible bluff.

A reasonable person doesn't put half his chips in unless he's prepared to call for the rest, don't you think?

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

If it was a bluff, it was a terrible, terrible bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, not like he got you to fold or anything.

[lorinda]

You normally fold a pair of aces with a T kicker heads-up?

Well it's not exactly heads up. Okay, it's heads up now, but when I raised it was four handed.

Personally against bad players, I'll fold and wait for a better chance. Ive only put 1/4 of my chips in here, why take the chance that they happen to have a bad ace that isn't A8 or A4.

Lori

[stupidsucker]

I think its a very tough. Going over the top does seem like you ARE going to get called. What hands that match that board are going to call the preflop bet, but not push preflop? Does he know you are 2+2?

If you ask me, he wanted a call, and folding was a good option. you still have a good amount of chips left if you fold, and pushing is just like calling all in.

The only possible hand I put him on atm is 88. Perhaps his game plan was to hit a set and trap or stop and go on any board that didnt contain an ace/king. A8 doesnt make much sense, nor does a big ace. It may sound funny, but KK is an option. A smooth call preflop hoping to get more out of you, but the ace came so he took a stab at the pot leaving himself a small out.

[lorinda]

It may sound funny, but KK is an option. A smooth call preflop hoping to get more out of you, but the ace came so he took a stab at the pot leaving himself a small out.


That's very good thinking IMO. The whole play seems like a stop/go but that would make sense as to why he chose that moment.

Lori

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
It may sound funny, but KK is an option. A smooth call preflop hoping to get more out of you, but the ace came so he took a stab at the pot leaving himself a small out.


That's very good thinking IMO. The whole play seems like a stop/go but that would make sense as to why he chose that moment.


[/ QUOTE ]



I don't fold here. Either all-in without blinking - or I call, then see if he bets the turn. He'll need to tell me twice for me to think about folding, I think.

[stupidsucker]

Comming from you(lori), that is a compliment thank you.

[LinusKS]

He should know I'm 2+2. I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

There's really no question in my mind but that he was inviting me to go all-in.

A less than half pot size bet out of position against a pre-flop raiser? With an ace on board? He had to have expected to get called or raised all in.

He had at least an ace.

The question is, could he beat AT?

As for the KK - I don't know his style very well, but I'd be very surprised to see someone play KK like that, from that position with those stacks.

I'm still hoping the good Doctor will show up, and explain himself.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If it was a bluff, it was a terrible, terrible bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, not like he got you to fold or anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, good use of sarcasm!

I wish I could use sarcasm like that.

But know that you mention it, I see you're right.

Obviously since I did fold, he must have known in advance I was going to.

You sure are smart!

[lorinda]

I think the point is there is a fine line between a terrible bluff and a brilliant one, especially when dealing with intelligent opponents.

Lori

[PrayingMantis]

Actually Tosh is right.

A move that makes you fold what is possibly the best hand here, is by definition a great bluff, and definitely not a terrible, terrible one.

I'm not talking specifically about you here, but against certain players who are capable to fold hands like yours here (somewhat weak-tight, say), this move is very strong, AS a bluff, and without risking the whole stack.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the point is there is a fine line between a terrible bluff and a brilliant one, especially when dealing with intelligent opponents.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. There is a fine line between a brilliant play and a very bad one. I sometimes catch myself trying to make "brilliant" bluffs (though not usually on a stack as short as his), and when they fail, I have to remind myself it's usually a mistake to get to fancy in an sng.

I don't think I've ever given him reason to think I'm especially likely to fold here. If anything - and of course I can't be sure - it's more likely he thinks I'm reckless.

[LinusKS]

So basically, betting half your stack, into a pot that was twice as large as your bet, where your opponent bet before the flop, and there's an ace on the board, AND you intend to fold if reraised, leaving you with four or five hundred chips... is a good play to you Mantis?

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
So basically, betting half your stack, into a pot that was twice as large as your bet, where your opponent bet before the flop, and there's an ace on the board, AND you intend to fold if reraised, leaving you with four or five hundred chips... is a good play to you Mantis?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, if he reads you as capable of folding, say, anything less than TPTK, or 2p, to this sort of flop bet (which is a scary bet, as this thread proves), it's probably a profitable move with any 2 cards. Of course, your opponent should have a strong read, and the courage to act upon it, but we're talking about a good player here, aren't we.

[hyde]

I'm not a doctor, but I play one on pokerstars. dr. jekyl.

if I was the doctor in question, I do not recall the hand.
As I look at the hand history I do not know what pocket cards that I would have called the raise pre flop and then bet 450 with that flop.

so it was probably another dr.

hyde

[Desdia72]

care to say who the 2+2er is? the only Doc i know on this sight is DrPhysic.

[LinusKS]

Yes, it's DrPhysic. I'm still hoping he'll come post on the thread.

[DrPhysic]

Sorry, have been gone all evening. Just got back.

Linus,

Of course I knew that you are 2+2.

The reason my play was confusing is that I made a bad error preflop. I never should have called with a medium ace.

Yes, I had an ace. No, I could not beat your AT. No it was not an 8.

After I saw the flop and thought about your pf raise, I knew I was in trouble. I could simply eat crow and check/fold, or I could attempt to get creative. I did put you on a slightly better hand than you had, but the difference didn’t matter.

The only way I get out of the hand with a whole skin is if you fold. If I push, you will almost certainly call and win. (unless I have read wrong and you have a large pair that won't beat my aces, but I didn't think so.)

The only option I could see, other than folding, was to make a bet that would appear that I was begging for a call with something like pocket 8s. Apparently it worked.

Doc /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Edit: For the record, when I looked at the hand after the flop, I gave some thought to his having a large pair, but I put him on AK.

[LinusKS]

Thank you for the reply. It looks like you played me. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'm glad at least I got the ace right.

Unfortunately (for me) your chip stack was just big enough I thought I couldn't afford to call and be wrong.

I figured you for AJ.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, have been gone all evening. Just got back.

Linus,

Of course I knew that you are 2+2.

The reason my play was confusing is that I made a bad error preflop. I never should have called with a medium ace.

Yes, I had an ace. No, I could not beat your AT. No it was not an 8.

After I saw the flop and thought about your pf raise, I knew I was in trouble. I could simply eat crow and check/fold, or I could attempt to get creative. I did put you on a slightly better hand than you had, but the difference didn’t matter.

The only way I get out of the hand with a whole skin is if you fold. If I push, you will almost certainly call and win. (unless I have read wrong and you have a large pair that won't beat my aces, but I didn't think so.)

The only option I could see, other than folding, was to make a bet that would appear that I was begging for a call with something like pocket 8s. Apparently it worked.

Doc /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Edit: For the record, when I looked at the hand after the flop, I gave some thought to his having a large pair, but I put him on AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DrPhysic]

My problem was that now I'm in this, what do I do?
If you have JJ, QQ, KK, that's fine with me, but if you have AK as I suspected and I let you bet first you are going to make it really hard for me to call. And I am quite sure you will call if I push. So I had to think up something else. Not brain surgery to figure out it had to be something bigger than check and smaller than push.

Doc

[codewarrior]

A Chush? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

(Morning, Doc - TG is well (very well by her account /images/graemlins/cool.gif), see you this afternoon.

[AleoMagus]

Having looked at this hand, and read this thread, I have to say... I think folding ATs here is not good at all.

Here's why

This all comes down to how certain you are that you are beat right now. even if, for example, you are putting the doc on two pair (somehow) or a higher kicker (more likely), you still have outs to win the hand and you are getting better than 2-1 odds on a call (I'm not saying a call is good here either).

This means that if you are even 33% to win the hand, then you should play. Needing a ten or running spades already gives you maybe 10%-15% so you just need another 20% or so. This is where your certainty about what he's got comes in. You basically need to be 80% certain or better that he has a better hand already and I don't think that you can be that certain.

This is all rough of course, and neglects the odds that he might suck out on you if he's got a weaker hand right now (and a few other things), but you see what I'm getting at. You have to be so sure in order to make this fold, and I just don't think that I could be.

I'm also not gonna call. He's basically in it for all his chips here so I'll put him in now. Even if he is trying a fancy play here, he still has to call afterwards so you might as well get all his money in now in case you are already ahead (or in case he'd fold here to a raise).

Who knows. maybe if I didn't know from the thread that you were, in fact, ahead then I might be less convinced a fold is wrong.

Regards
Brad S

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

Obviously since I did fold, he must have known in advance I was going to.


[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he didn't know, he weighed up the situation and your thought process and made a bet. To say that if it was a terrible bluff - if it was a bluff - is beyond ridiculous.

[LinusKS]

Thanks for the reply. I think this was an interesting hand, which is why I posted it.

I think looking at it in terms of chip EV is wrong. In a minute I'm going to look at the ICM, and see if it that tells me anything.

Basically, my thinking was - AT (in this situation) is a decent, but not great hand. It wasn't the hand I was looking to go out on. Based on my chip position, I could afford to throw in standard raise, but I wasn't going to call all-in if somebody came over the top of me. Looking ahead to my opposition, the Doc was the one I was most worried about. He wasn't quite desperate yet, and I figured if he came over the top of me, I had to assume I was beat - probably dominated.

So that was in my head when he made his sly half-stack bet.

And I agree my only options were push or fold.

Here's the thing - if I fold here I still have almost 1500 chips - a perfectly decent stack.

I call and lose, I'm down to less than 500. That's a huge difference to me - the difference between having a perfectly decent chance of winning, and being practically out of the tournament.

And I thought I had a read on him. Now obviously I was wrong, which is one reason I don't always trust my reads.

But I was thinking about my chip position, not pot odds.

Suppose you knew ahead of time, Brad, that your chances of winning here are 50%.

Does that change whether you think this is a push or a fold?






[ QUOTE ]
Having looked at this hand, and read this thread, I have to say... I think folding ATs here is not good at all.

Here's why

This all comes down to how certain you are that you are beat right now. even if, for example, you are putting the doc on two pair (somehow) or a higher kicker (more likely), you still have outs to win the hand and you are getting better than 2-1 odds on a call (I'm not saying a call is good here either).

This means that if you are even 33% to win the hand, then you should play. Needing a ten or running spades already gives you maybe 10%-15% so you just need another 20% or so. This is where your certainty about what he's got comes in. You basically need to be 80% certain or better that he has a better hand already and I don't think that you can be that certain.

This is all rough of course, and neglects the odds that he might suck out on you if he's got a weaker hand right now (and a few other things), but you see what I'm getting at. You have to be so sure in order to make this fold, and I just don't think that I could be.

I'm also not gonna call. He's basically in it for all his chips here so I'll put him in now. Even if he is trying a fancy play here, he still has to call afterwards so you might as well get all his money in now in case you are already ahead (or in case he'd fold here to a raise).

Who knows. maybe if I didn't know from the thread that you were, in fact, ahead then I might be less convinced a fold is wrong.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

[LinusKS]

You're right.

If I've done the calculations correctly (always a big IF), it looks like I was getting odds of 74:121 for a push (assuming he calls).

That's roughly 3:5.

If I was 50% sure of my read here, I should have called. I would have to have been 65% sure he had me beat to fold.

Interestingly, if I look back, I think that's approximately how sure I was that I was beat.

(Good bluff, Doc.)