Name that 2+2 Guy

[fyodor]

Another swingy day at the 10/20. At one point down almost 70BB but finished -30BB for a bit of a comeback. Hands like the following were a big part of the down. What was my *worst* mistake?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">CO <font color="purple">(2+2 Guy)</font> raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">2+2 Guy bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">2+2 Guy 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">2+2 Guy bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, 2+2 Guy calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">2+2 Guy bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Results below:
Hero has 9d Jc (straight, jack high).
2+2 Guy has 4h 4c (flush, ten high).
Outcome: 2+2 Guy wins 11.25 BB.

Can you name that 2+2 Guy?

[MEbenhoe]

no one but schneids could hit like that. plus from conversations with him earlier tonight it seemed like he may have been on minor tilt. Although I am personally currently drunk so this response may not be the best.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
no one but schneids could hit like that. plus from conversations with him earlier tonight it seemed like he may have been on minor tilt. Although I am personally currently drunk so this response may not be the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way I actually won a hand like that this evening. Trust me, there's a difference between being annoyed at a -100BBish session and tilt. In any case, I do not remember any hand such as this one. So, I would guess someone NOT me.

[TazQ]

Has to be Peter, he is the laggiest 2+2er on here :P

[Robk]

preflop i think is ok.
flop i think you did good.
i think your turn raise is very bad. because no one folds hands in these blind wars after the pot gets big. because you could easily be 3 bet. because he'll often have a heart draw and then look you up on the river for the size of the pot. because no one believes you have a flush in a steal situation. but if you know he often plays the flop this way with overcards and will wait to raise the turn with good hands then i think the play has a lot of merit.
i think your river check is very bad. pot big =&gt; many weak hands will call. 4 hearts =&gt; many weak hands will check. the fact that he must have something of showdown value means there are very few hands he'll bluff. and you played so strong why would he expect you to fold?

[J.R.]

thanks for posting

[Peter_rus]

It could be me if i was on Button or SB with my 44. I 100% muck 44 from CO.

[rory]

Fold preflop. Jack high out of position against a solid player.. hmm.

-rory

[Schneids]

I agree with all your assessment except for the river.

I think the danger of betting the river is that this 2+2er is aggressive enough to raise you w/o holding the flush. I also think the 2+2er will bet TPTK or better on the river, so, you're not really missing any value because the hands you're beating are still getting bet for value by him.

If check/calling the river is a mistake it's only a miniscule one IMO.

[fyodor]

Now that I see what he had and how far he was willing to go with it, I know I should have folded the turn. Flop and preflop I have no problem with my play.

My checkraise on the flop is only a semi-bluff. Although I can still hit the straight on the river my turn checkraise is more of a pure bluff. I was hoping he would think at that point that my flop c/r was a s/b with a flush draw that had now hit. He thus may fold AK or AQ with no /images/graemlins/heart.gif or any small to med pp even with a /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I was wrong. He had me pegged.

On the river I was thinking it made little difference what I did. I see now though that betting had a slight edge.

If I bet he might call with a PP no /images/graemlins/heart.gif or he might finally believe me and lay it down. If I check he might bet his PP no /images/graemlins/heart.gif or he might just check behind me. Probably a better chance of getting the extra bet by betting.

If I bet he almost certainly calls with any /images/graemlins/heart.gif and raises with a cpl. of the big ones. Small, small chance he folds a small /images/graemlins/heart.gif If I check he bets pretty much any /images/graemlins/heart.gif but maybe not a small one. About even.

So as I am not folding the river for one bet I should lead and fold to a raise.

[J.R.]

Now that I see what he had and how far he was willing to go with it, I know I should have folded the turn.

No way, you're 50/50 againt 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the turn.

I think after your turn play you aren't getting raised on the river by anytting but a big heart, and small medium pairs might not bet if you check (depending on how aggro the 2=2er is).

[Robk]

OK I'll assume he'll bet TPTK or better if you check the river. I'll assume he'd 3 bet any flush, set, straight, or overpair with a heart on the turn. Here's what I get as his rough hand range (note that heart/nonheart combos have been eliminated according to my assumptions). total = total combos, L = combos you lose to, W = combos you beat, action = his action with the combos you beat if you check (I assume he always bets the best hand).

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
hand total L W action


T9 9 3 6 bet
TJ 9 3 6 ch
TQ 12 3 9 ch
TK 12 3 9 ch
TA 12 3 9 bet
JJ 1 0 1 bet
QQ 3 0 3 bet
KK 3 0 3 bet
AA 3 0 3 bet
99 3 2 1 ch
77 3 0 3 bet
55 3 3 0 bet
44 3 3 0 bet
33 3 3 0 bet
22 3 3 0 bet
AK 8 8 0 bet
Aq 8 8 0 bet
Aj 7 7 0 bet
A9 7 7 0 bet
K9 7 7 0 bet
QJ 7 7 0 bet

126 73 53
</pre><hr />

Note that combos you beat that he checks = 25, and combos you beat that he'll bet = 28.

EV(checkcall) = 10.25*(28/126) + 9.25*(25/126) - (73/126) =
3.53

EV(betfold) = 10.25*(53/126) - (73/126) = 3.73.

Making bet fold .2 of a big bet better under these assumptions. I was assuming you he was unaware you were a 2+2er, and thus would not raise the river with a worse hand. If your opponent would raise a worse hand after this action, this falls apart but I don't think so. Maybe Schneids should be trusted on this though as he is in much better touch with this game than me.

I challange the assumption that TPTK or better will bet here though. I think Schneids may be transferring his tough value betting onto this opponent where it doesnt' really fly. After this strong action many players, even 2+2ers will chicken out with AA etc. If that's the case(ie he checks one pair) checking becomes a bigger error. (I get 3.73 - 3.38 = .35BB mistake)

My initial reaction to the post assumed he would not value bet some/all 1 pair hands, and also that he did not have 22-55, because I think 3 betting those on the flop is stupid /images/graemlins/frown.gif. If that's the case I get checking to be a .4BB error. But if some of these assumptions are wrong as Schneids says (and as the results say) it's not as bad as I thought at first.

Note: I did all this really fast and there could be big errors in my work.

[Robk]

99 made a straight on the river so will bet. but that should have a very small effect on the results.

[fyodor]

[ QUOTE ]
No way, you're 50/50 againt 4 4 on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? I'm not even 25/75 let alone 50/50

[MAxx]

why is it a decent play to defend this hand pf?

[fyodor]

3:1

If a J or 9 comes on the flop with no A,K, or Q I am probably ahead. Plus the J9 is semi connected for straight potential.

I think J9o in this situation could be played or mucked without it being a big mistake either way. If it's close enough to be debatable though, then it's playable for me.

[Peter_rus]

And the answer is... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[fyodor]

Sometime after starting this thread I came to regret it. I do not know for a fact that this guy is who I think he is and it was therefore irresponsible of me to imply that I did. I was close to certain but less than 100%.

I never expected him to confirm or deny that I had it right.

I was amused that he had raised preflop with 44. I was impressed that he would not lay down against 2 c/r from me. I know that my opponent in this hand (whoever he is) is a very good player based on looking at +3000 hands of his.

I would like to just leave it at that and apologize to all 4 players I implicated if anyone has taken offence.

[fsuplayer]

boooo....

i checked my PT and i have never won with a flush with 44 in the hole.

i dont think its that big of a deal, just a let down that the villian was not unmasked. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif