I keep finding myself in these situations...

[jedi]

I keep finding myself in these situations where I'm playing a big pot with a good hand, but NOT the nut hand and I'm scared to death of folding to a big bluff or calling a big hand.

CO in this hand is not a bad player. Not TOO loose and has been the big winner at this table.

No Limit 1.00/2.00 at The Gaming Club

Seat: 3 CO ($211.49)
Seat: 8 Hero (121.65)

Hero is UTG+1 with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

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OpeningBetRound
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UTG : Folds
Hero : Raises for 4.00
Folded to CO
CO : Calls for 4.00

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Flop ($9.50) J /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
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Hero : Bets 8.00
CO : Calls for 8.00
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Okay, here I have nothing but 2 overcards, a gutshot and a backdoor nut flush draw. I really want to win this pot right now, so I roughly bet the pot. He calls and I'm out of position so I figure I'm screwed unless I hit a good card on the turn. Even then, if I hit an overcard a KQ or AK type hand might beat me. These hands might just call pre-flop to see what happens. Right now, I put him on either top pair or maybe a flush draw.

Turn ($15.50) K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
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Hero : Bets 50.00
CO : Went all-in 199.49
Hero : ????

Jackpot? I hit my gutshot but now 3 hearts are on the board. I lead out, intending on winning this pot right away, but he then pushes all-in. Now what? I DO have a flush redraw, in case he actually does have the flush. Assuming he has 2 hearts, I have 7 outs, 44 cards left in the deck give me 37:7 odds. 5.28:1. The pot is laying me about 155:90 or 1.7:1. Bad odds, BUT what if my hand is already good? That has to be taken into account, right?

Results <font color="white">
Hero: Went all-in 59.65
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River: 6c
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CO has KsKc for three of a kind.
Hero has a straight.
</font>

Comments?

[Wayfare]

Why in the world would you bet $50 into a $10 pot on the turn?

[jbrock]

I have to agree with Wayfare. The $50 bet on the turn is excessive given the flush possiblity. It is also half of your remaining stack and essentially commits you to the pot.

A pot sized (or just a little larger) bet on the turn would allow you to get away from this hand on the turn. If I put $10 in on the turn and was raised all in, I would drop the hand. You are behind a possible flush or straight (Q 9) or another A Q. The situation that you found yourself in is directly a result of the very large turn bet.


(long time lurker, first time poster)

[B1GF1SHY]

What's going on in this hand history? The pot sizes or bets can't be right. Somethings screwed up, but anyways, easy call on the turn in my opinion. You have the nut straight which is probably the best hand anyways and the nut flush draw, you can't ask for anything more from this.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to agree with Wayfare. The $50 bet on the turn is excessive given the flush possiblity. It is also half of your remaining stack and essentially commits you to the pot.

A pot sized (or just a little larger) bet on the turn would allow you to get away from this hand on the turn. If I put $10 in on the turn and was raised all in, I would drop the hand. You are behind a possible flush or straight (Q 9) or another A Q. The situation that you found yourself in is directly a result of the very large turn bet.


(long time lurker, first time poster)

[/ QUOTE ]

He's behind Q9 and AQ eh? You sure about that?

Awful turn bet, as the others have already said. Fold to the raise.

[Phil Van Sexton]

The pot has $27, not $10, I think. Still, $50 is bit much.

I'd bet $25. I'd want to give him a chance to call with a heart draw, and then break him if a heart hits on the river.

Before looking at the results, I figured he had JJ or TT. Many people wouldnt push with the non-nut flush on the turn (wrong play, of course), so I guessed he has a set and is trying to get you to fold before a 4th heart comes on the river.

I certainly didn't see KK, though. What an idiot.

[russian ace]

The over bet on the turn was bad. You just hit you hand, so you want to get paid by 2 pair or smaller straight. When you lead for $50 you will only (normally) get called by a flush. Once you bet the turn, you cant fold.
Ace

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]

The over bet on the turn was bad. You just hit you hand, so you want to get paid by 2 pair or smaller straight. When you lead for $50 you will only (normally) get called by a flush. Once you bet the turn, you cant fold.
Ace

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you can, and should, fold. A call here would be pretty bad IMO, he's got the flush, oh, all the time.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
What's going on in this hand history? The pot sizes or bets can't be right. Somethings screwed up, but anyways, easy call on the turn in my opinion. You have the nut straight which is probably the best hand anyways and the nut flush draw, you can't ask for anything more from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. The pot size on the turn is closer to $25, not $15. Either way it was an overbet of the pot, essentially committing my stack.

It sounds like people are telling me to bet closer to pot size on the turn, but wouldn't I be getting myself into the same situation. He'd re-raise me all-in, and I'd still be put to the test. It'd be an easier decision to fold, but I still wouldn't like it.

[jedi]

Follow up question:

What would your thought processes be during the entire hand? I want to know how I SHOULD be thinking.

[TheGrifter]

On the flop you're basically making a pure bluff, you only have 3 nut outs so you're trying to pick up the pot with a bet. When he calls you you have to figure he's probably on some sort of draw, straight or flush. Now, the flush draw completes on the turn, but it also gives you the nut straight.

This doesn't have to be a difficult situation for you, bet out, something like 2/3 of the pot is much much better than 2x the pot in this situation. If you're raised in this spot he's going to have the flush a lot of the time, if the raise is small enough to allow you to draw to a heart, go ahead. If you're raised all in, just fold, your hand is no better than AhJd at this point.

[russian ace]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The over bet on the turn was bad. You just hit you hand, so you want to get paid by 2 pair or smaller straight. When you lead for $50 you will only (normally) get called by a flush. Once you bet the turn, you cant fold.
Ace

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you can, and should, fold. A call here would be pretty bad IMO, he's got the flush, oh, all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

When it comes back to him on the turn he has to call like $65 into a $180 pot. Almost 3-1 with the nut flush draw. Plus the chance that his hand is good here. To me it looks like an easy call, but I could be wrong.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is laying me about 155:90 or 1.7:1. Bad odds, BUT ... Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

After I read through the situation, my thought was that you almost have odds just on the nut flush draw. Then I went back and found this part. One of us is mistaken. Here's my calculation.

Pot at the start of the turn was (about) $32 (not $15.50 as the formatter says). Plus your bet and his call of your bet, plus the additional $60 of his bet that your call (if you make it) will cover. Current pot size is $32 + 50 + 50 + 60 = $190 and it is $60 to you. Therefore, your payoff is 190-to-60 or 3.2-to-1.

I agree the odds of hitting the flush, if you really are behind right now, are 7-to-37, or 5.3-to-1, so, in order to call, you need to believe that there is about a 45-50% chance (a guesstimate) that you are ahead right now. Note that this IS NOT 2.1/5.3 chance, because some of the times that you are ahead right now you still lose, when he hits one of his outs. If you are attenuating his overlay with your outs, then you have to attenuate your overlay with his outs.

Anyway, now you go into the tank. Given the way he played this one hand, I am willing to bet that he is someone who bets his draws. Hopefully, you already knew him well enough to know. Unfortunately, you had bet into him on the flop, and it is less likely that he would have raised his draw, or, at least, less likely that you would know for sure. But, in any case, assuming he is aggressive with draws, you have some evidence that he didn't have one on the flop.

I agree with several others that your turn bet was too big. If you had bet just $30 and he had come over you all in, then I think you would not have the odds to call, since you would still have $80 behind, rather than only $60, for a 190-to-80 or 2.4-to-1 payoff. Still close, I guess, if you think he would make this bet with anything less than the flush, but a tougher call.

[jbrock]

You are right, the numbers are messed up and the pot is about $25 on the turn (I also meant to say Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif).

Preflop and flop look fine. Since you say the CO is not bad and therefore a reasonable player he is not calling a potsize bet on the turn with JUST a flush draw so he has a piece of this flop. When you bet twice the pot on the turn when a scare card hits (and thus represent the flush) he goes over the top. This says to me he doesn't believe that you have the flush because there are already two hearts in his hand (such as Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif or 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif). I would have a sickening feeling in my gut seeing that reraise and would want to lay this one down here, but feel free to call me weak-tight.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]

The over bet on the turn was bad. You just hit you hand, so you want to get paid by 2 pair or smaller straight. When you lead for $50 you will only (normally) get called by a flush. Once you bet the turn, you cant fold.
Ace

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you can, and should, fold. A call here would be pretty bad IMO, he's got the flush, oh, all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

When it comes back to him on the turn he has to call like $65 into a $180 pot. Almost 3-1 with the nut flush draw. Plus the chance that his hand is good here. To me it looks like an easy call, but I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was calculating the pot as 15 going into the turn, so you're right it's a bit closer. I just can't imagine you're ahead more than a tiny percentage of the time here. Once you bet 50 bucks your opponent has to assume you're pot committed...but if he's going to have the flush 9 times out of 10 then save your money.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is laying me about 155:90 or 1.7:1. Bad odds, BUT ... Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

After I read through the situation, my thought was that you almost have odds just on the nut flush draw. Then I went back and found this part. One of us is mistaken. Here's my calculation.

Pot at the start of the turn was (about) $32 (not $15.50 as the formatter says). Plus your bet and his call of your bet, plus the additional $60 of his bet that your call (if you make it) will cover. Current pot size is $32 + 50 + 50 + 60 = $190 and it is $60 to you. Therefore, your payoff is 190-to-60 or 3.2-to-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, math was a good subject for me in school too. Can't understand how I botched this. The formatter didn't do anything, BTW. The converter doesn't take Prima Network hand histories, so I manually formatted it myself. When I added up the pot, I must have hit 15.5 instead of 25.5 on the turn pot size.

Thanks for the help guys. I got really lucky with this one.

[russian ace]

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[ QUOTE ]

The over bet on the turn was bad. You just hit you hand, so you want to get paid by 2 pair or smaller straight. When you lead for $50 you will only (normally) get called by a flush. Once you bet the turn, you cant fold.
Ace

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you can, and should, fold. A call here would be pretty bad IMO, he's got the flush, oh, all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

When it comes back to him on the turn he has to call like $65 into a $180 pot. Almost 3-1 with the nut flush draw. Plus the chance that his hand is good here. To me it looks like an easy call, but I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was calculating the pot as 15 going into the turn, so you're right it's a bit closer. I just can't imagine you're ahead more than a tiny percentage of the time here. Once you bet 50 bucks your opponent has to assume you're pot committed...but if he's going to have the flush 9 times out of 10 then save your money.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is also 1 additional consideration here and that's if you play with this guys all the time you don't want to be known as a folder
Ace
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[g29w]

How are you so sure he has the flush? For me, it seems to the reraise all-in would be an easy call.

Hero has the Ah, and seeing as the player doesn't play too badly, i doubt he would be playing with a lower suited, esp after a PF raise.

To me, it seems (though the turn raise is too much), CO thought Hero was either on AK or maybe TPTK/twopair, so when the K came, for trips, logically CO thought he was ahead.