Yet another sanity check.

[durron597]

You are in the BB with two low unpaired, unsuited, cards. Blinds 100/200. UTG goes allin for 615 total chips. This is PokerRoom, so starting stacks are 1500. You have 2000 chips before posting. Action?

[housenuts]

how many people are left? if it's getting low on numbers, i don't want to give the shortstack more chips.

[serling]

I'm folding. I think you're way behind here. UTG is the one to go all-in, not the button or SB.

serling

[housenuts]

you're not even going to be getting odds on most hands. really, say you have 47o. he more than likely has 2 overcards, or a pair (most likely higher than 7 too). you'd be putting in 415 more to win 915. you're getting just over 2 to 1 on your money, but you're probably almost, if not more than, a 2 to 1 dog on the hand. if this was a ring game, maybe you could call in this situation, but in a tournament you're not getting any more chips so you gotta protect what you have.

[stupidsucker]

well speaking of pot odds, you should probably fold. Depending on the amount of people left and stack sizes of others you may want to call.

WHY?

Even if he wins, he will still be short stacked. You just called with garbage. Think he is going to steal from you again? I know for a fact if I get called with garbage win or lose I am very careful about my next steal when that guy is in the BB.

Is it worth 400 chips? Maybe not, Id have to know more about the game conditions to make up my mind.

[durron597]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=558940
pokenum -h as ks - 6c 4d
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 1117093 65.24 587508 34.31 7703 0.45 0.655
6c 4d 587508 34.31 1117093 65.24 7703 0.45 0.345

You are getting quite a bit better than 2:1 on your money (2.25:1), so if he turns over AKs in advance you should call. Of course:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=558943
pokenum -h 7s 7h - 6c 4d
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 7h 1447026 84.51 243390 14.21 21888 1.28 0.851
6c 4d 243390 14.21 1447026 84.51 21888 1.28 0.149

So just how short does he have to be before you call with any two cards? I went in the tank for a really long time before making my decision on this one. More details: we were 5 handed, and I was third in chips. There was one huge stack. I lose this hand, I'm approximately tied with the guy who was 4th in chips prior to this hand.

Realize the odds of me being dominated are very small unless he has AA-77. I would rather call here with 64o than with K2o. Also he was a good enough player that (in my opinion) he would realize that he had to go allin the next hand pretty much no matter what.

[TheDrone]

This is one of those scenarios where calling might be +ChipEV and -$EV. It would be interesting to see the comparison using ICM as an approximation.

[serling]

I'm still folding, durron. Even with five people left.

Let him have your blind. He'll lose half his stack when the blinds next hit him; steal from him next time around and let him be the one to call with 46o/47o.

There's also the added benefit of keeping him around to instill others' fear of bubbling out.

serling

[PrayingMantis]

I don't like it. Even if you are getting marginally OK odds for calling between 1/4 to 1/5 your stack, I think these chips could serve you better as an aggressor. The nature of marginal calls, is that even if you're about right in terms of range of hands you put your opponent on, you don't gain much in terms of CEV. And a marginally +CEV move as a caller for a significant portion of your stack, is a move that increases the variance on your stack, in a situation you don't need it. That's my opinion.

[durron597]

Ok, so apparently the consensus is that 2.25:1 is not good enough to call. When is it good enough? 3:1? I have pot odds to call with QJ vs. JJ now. 5:1? Now I have pot odds against anything.

Edit: OK, not anything, but the only hands I don't have odds to call are like AA vs. AK now.

[TheDrone]

I have to say it, I can't help myself...it depends. As I alluded to in my other post, you have to look beyond pot odds here because you are not playing a cash game. I'm sure this is not news to you, so I'm curious why you are focusing on pot odds.

I would have to know chip counts in your scenario to get more specific than "I wouldn't call here".

[TheDrone]

I ran two examples through ICM and came up with the following results:

Scenario 1 starting stacks (after blinds posted):
1800 (hero)
7000
1400
615 (villain)
3885

Equity if you fold = 15.9% of prize pool
Equity if you call and win = 22.8%
Equity if you call and lose = 12.6%

In this case you are $EV neutral if your hand is a 33% favorite with 2.2:1 pot odds.

Scenario 2 stacks after posting blinds:
2000 (hero)
7000
1400
415 (villain)
3885

Equity if you fold = 17.5% of prize pool
Equity if you call and win = 22.8%
Equity if you call and lose = 15.8%

In this case you are $EV neutral if your hand is a 25% favorite with 3.3:1 pot odds. I think it's safe to say that calling with any two here is +$EV.

I know that ICM is slanted in favor of smaller stacks but these results surprise me a little. Someone may want to check my math. One important aspect that this model does not account for is the change in strategy once you are shortstacked, as well as the larger range of hands you should push when really shortstacked. It also does not account for blinds as a % of stack and how quickly you could blind out as a result. I don't know how much of a $EV adjustment those two factors introduce, but I think it's significant enough that I'm still not calling with 2.2:1 odds.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran two examples through ICM and came up with the following results:

Scenario 1 starting stacks (after blinds posted):
1800 (hero)
7000
1400
615 (villain)
3885

Equity if you fold = 15.9% of prize pool
Equity if you call and win = 22.8%
Equity if you call and lose = 12.6%

In this case you are $EV neutral if your hand is a 33% favorite with 2.2:1 pot odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

These are almost exactly the stacks from the actual hand that inspired my post.