Tourney Strategy: Playing pocket pairs with a raise in front of you

[jwvdcw]

I have a lot of my own thoughts on this subject, but I thought I'd start it off by asking a few questions to get the conversation started. The basic jist of this thread is to see how much you should call with a drawing hand like 66, for example. In all of these questions, the tourney has just started, you have 1000 chips, and the blinds are 10/15.

1.You have 88 on the button. MP makes a raise. You have no read whatsoever on the raiser. Everyone else folds. What is the maximum raise that you'd call preflop?

2.Same thing as question #1, except you know the raiser well and are fairly confident that he would only raise that big early on with AA or KK. Whats the most you would call?

3+4.Same questions as #1 and #2 except you're the BB, so you're already in for 15 and you won't have position postflop.

5-8. Same questions but now lets discuss if other's call the big raise in front of you(which is a good thing for you when you have a drawing hand.

[jah0550]

1. I would call a raise of about 50-75. Any more than 75, I would fold. At best, you would be a slight favorite in a HU situation.
2. Why would you stay if you knew he had AA or KK? Definate fold in that situation.
3-8. If he raises to 50-75 and there is more than 2 callers, I would call. True odds indicate that you will hit your set about 1/4 times. If you are getting 4-1(due to 2 or more limpers), the EV is positive, so I would call. However if there are no limpers, I would not call a raise over 30, because if an 8 doesn't hit, then what? Not only that, but your EV is too negative to call and are out of position to boot.
Those are just my thoughts, but what do I know?
-jah

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
True odds indicate that you will hit your set about 1/4 times. If you are getting 4-1(due to 2 or more limpers), the EV is positive, so I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 in 4 to hit a set? Might want to research that one...

eastbay

[Unarmed]

I'm 7.5-1 to hit my set on the flop. Based on the PF raiser I estimate what % of his stack I'll be able to get if I hit. I then add that to the dead money in the pot. I will call anywhere up to 1/10th of that amount assuming my stack is >= the amount I think I can get from him. I use 1/10 to eliminate set over set/flush/straight issues. Calling with 1/9 would probably still be marginally +EV including that logic but I like to have a small buffer if I overestimate the amount of money I can get from him.

I've found this is a lot more useful than just looking at the 2 stacks, choosing the smaller one, and calling up to 1/8 or 1/10 of that amount with small PP.

So in your exact example:

1) With no read I'll assume I can nab 50% of his stack (+ the dead money) and will call up to 1/10 of the 500+25 blinds, or 52.50.
2) If he has AA/KK I'm loving my 88, because odds are he's wedded to that hand. I'll call up to 1/10 of his whole stack + blinds or 102.50.
3-5) Position doesn't factor into my PF decision all that much... no set no bet. Perhaps this is a leak of mine.
5-8) Others calling big raises just increases the amount of dead money. I don't assume I can stack off two opponents to a great extent, mostly because I rarely see this occur. So I add up the dead money in the pot + whatever % of the original raisers stack I think I can get, divide that by 10, and there's the amount I can call.

So if I know PF raiser has AA and its raise to 120, call, call and I'm on the button thats 1000 of his stack, plus the two callers, plus the blinds, for 1265 so I'll call the 120. Without the raisers I'd fold as I'm only getting 1025/120, not the 10-1 I'm looking for.

Man I hope thats not too confusing, have to bail to a meeting so it was rushed.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]

2. Why would you stay if you knew he had AA or KK? Definate fold in that situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

Because if you hit your set, you're most probably taking his entire stack right then and there.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
1. I would call a raise of about 50-75. Any more than 75, I would fold. At best, you would be a slight favorite in a HU situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think being favored or not is important...with most situations, you'll either hit your set and win, or miss it and check/fold it down.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a lot of my own thoughts on this subject, but I thought I'd start it off by asking a few questions to get the conversation started. The basic jist of this thread is to see how much you should call with a drawing hand like 66, for example. In all of these questions, the tourney has just started, you have 1000 chips, and the blinds are 10/15.

1.You have 88 on the button. MP makes a raise. You have no read whatsoever on the raiser. Everyone else folds. What is the maximum raise that you'd call preflop?


[/ QUOTE ]

30

[ QUOTE ]

2.Same thing as question #1, except you know the raiser well and are fairly confident that he would only raise that big early on with AA or KK. Whats the most you would call?


[/ QUOTE ]

60

eastbay

[Awesemo]

I'm of the opinion that you should not call off the typical 7% of your stack like ring games, it should be more like half that. My reasoning is that 1/8.5 you're going to have to fold after the flop basically. You can put a better use to those chips in the later rounds of the stt where the blinds are 100/200 by stealing the blinds.

[jah0550]

Sorry about the math on my last post. I suck at math. You are a little more than 5-1 to hit your set PF.
To the guy who said he'd call a 120 raise, I do not agree with calling a 120 raise, because that is 15% of your stack. It is way too early to start throwing your chips around with a marginal hand.

[jah0550]

My math is off again. I thought you were starting with 800. Oops. I would still fold to a 120 raise though.

[Unarmed]

jah, the odds of hitting your set by the river has no meaning whatsoever when playing PP to a raise PF. Redo your math for just hitting your set on the flop. And BTW your math for hitting the set by the river was correct the first time. (4.2-1) It just isn't a real helpful stat unless your oppoenent is the most passive person on the planet.

[Unarmed]

eastbay,

Can i ask if you would answer the same in a ring game where you were well bankrolled and could rebuy to max stack whenever you wanted? I'm curious because your 30/60 answer seems low to me and if I have a leak here I'd like to plug it.

thx.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
eastbay,

Can i ask if you would answer the same in a ring game where you were well bankrolled and could rebuy to max stack whenever you wanted? I'm curious because your 30/60 answer seems low to me and if I have a leak here I'd like to plug it.

thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

his answer also seemed very low to me

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
eastbay,

Can i ask if you would answer the same in a ring game where you were well bankrolled and could rebuy to max stack whenever you wanted? I'm curious because your 30/60 answer seems low to me and if I have a leak here I'd like to plug it.

thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

My answers for a ring game would be different.

The fundamental difference being that you make money in a SnG by doing nothing (on average), whereas that is not the case in a ring game.

A secondary reason is that the equity in a super-tight image later in the game is enormous, and outweighs any smallish gaps in implied odds in these early hands.

eastbay

[lastchance]

1. About $60.

2. About $120, I really like my implied odds here.

3. About $60, probably get a bit less equity out of it, but the BB's money in the pot already offsets it. Different though, I'm only calling $45 here, not $60.

4. $135. That guy's giving me his stack when I hit my set, no doubt about it. The $15 extra.

5. $80, tons of dead money, plus, more importantly, people are just so loose that two people are giving me their stack.

6. $130, AA and KK still give me their stack when I hit my set, people might out of the way, love it if they call though.