Calling Down with TT - Point to Ponder

[Festus22]

I open-raised with T-T UTG+2. Folded to a reasonable SB who 3-bets. BB folds, I call.

Flop is Q-7-6 (suits unimportant).

He bets, I call.

Turn is a 6.

He bets, I call.

River is a 2.

He bets, I call.

He flips A-Ks and MHIG.

I got to thinking about this and tell me if this makes sense. As I mentioned, villian seemed like a decent player, playing pretty T/A. Therefore, his range of 3-betting hands may include:

AA
KK
QQ
JJ
99
(exclude TT for simplicity since I have 2 of them)

AKs or o
AQs or o
AJs

There's 24 combos of overpair hands to my T-T and 6 underpair combos.

There's 32 combos of AK and AQ suited and unsuited and 4 of AJs.

With that flop, I'm ahead of AK (16 combos), AJs (4) and 99 (6) for a total of 26.

I'm behind everything else or 40 combos.

Therefore, I'm good 39% of the time. However, if he has one of the hands I'm ahead of, he'll outdraw me roughly 25% of the time so my real win rate here is approximately 30%.

There's 7 SB's in the pot right now and it will cost me 5 to get the showdown. Villian will also put in 5 SB's so I'm investing 5 to win 12 - which is 2.4:1. And winning 30% of the time translates to 2.3:1.

Maybe a more exact mathematical analysis is needed but calling down here against a typical range of 3-betting hands seems like razor thin +EV. At the time, it seemed like a no-brainer and SOP.

What does everyone think?

[Trix]

Unless an Ace or King flops, then you are good often enough here. If he wont get tricky with AK out of pos, then raising the flop and betting the turn is cheaper and have the side offect of maybe folding out JJ.

[bdk3clash]

What about raising the flop? If I get 3-bet by a reasonable SB (as in, reasonably aggressive), I tend to call and fold the turn unimproved.

Might this be a rare instance where we can raise the flop and fold to a 3-bet? I don't think I've done that in a while, but if he's unlikely to 3-bet the flop with AK, it's not like we have the odds to spike a T once he 3-bets.

[crockett]

Very good post!

I auto raise the flop if a there is no A, K on the flop as well and then lead the turn.

What is interesting is that your calculations make your line so close. In fact I think it swings to -EV for a couple reasons.
a) Assumming a 3-bet on all occassions from 99 pre-flop is too big of an overstatement IMHO.
b) Suits and connectedness (is this a word?) on the flop are indeed important.

Maybe you just meant in your case it wasn't important and instead of typing rainbow you typed that.

But for discussion what do most do if an A or K is on the board? Flop on the flop?

[colgin]

Your analysis here demonstrates to me why calling down is good. (I only like raising the flop or turn if your opponent is not tricky and/or you can get a better hand, such as JJ, to fold.) Against a typical tight-aggressive player you have a marginally +EV situation.

However, if you have mischaracterized your opponent and he has a looser range of three-betting hands then that +EV increases still more. IMO, it is far more likely that your opponent is actually a little looser than you give him credit for being (e.g., will three-bet 77 or 88 when he knows he wil be heads-up aginst possible overcard) than being tighter (e.g., will only three-bet AA, KK, QQ or AKs).

[StellarWind]

You have made a hand counting error I see fairly often. Once the queen flops that nullifies three QQ and 4 AQ hands. You are only behind 33 hands.

I'd fold AJs without a second thought to a typical EP raise. I don't have much use for 99 either.