Digging into the Poll data.

[GWB]

I found this an interesting thread on the Party Registration mix of the recent Gallup polls. Too much info to post here, so I am linking directly to the thread.

Numerical Analysis: Gallup polls - May to October, 2004. (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1243226/posts)

Does anyone have anecdotal tales of people who have changed their Party, maybe as a result of 9/11 or of Iraq?

The big debate in poll numbers is what is the right mix of people as identified by Party.

[tanda]

I think there is some evidence of 9/11 leading to some movement to the GOP, both formally in terms of party switches, and informally in terms of voting.

Anecdotal evidence are the Democrats for Bush such as Ron Silver, Zell Miller and Ed Koch.

Thus, polls with party weighting to 2000 results may be underestimating Bush's support. However, those weighted polls are consistent with Gallup and other polls who do not weight indicating that no such underestimation may be occurring.