Strategy Question: When do your instincts override the math?

[SuitedSixes]

My W@SD used to be 87%. Since SSHE I have been more careful about not folding so easily and my W@SD had dropped accordingly to the low 70's. My WR has dropped so I don't know if I am mis-applying or misunderstanding. I understand that if you fold in a $20 pot for $1, it only takes one win in 19 for you to win that pot for the move to be profitable.

I just feel that I am making a lot of "crying calls" lately when the math justifies a call, but my instincts tell me to fold. At what point do you trust your instincts despite what the math is telling you? What separates a math-aware player from a calling station?

[bisonbison]

and my W@SD had dropped accordingly to the low 70's

Sounds like you're still far too tight.

[Piiop]

That number is insanely high. You fold on the river too much. How many hands do you have?

[brick]

The idea is to use your instincts to adjust the assumptions.
For example: GuyOnTilt points out that, althought the pot is big in this example, instincts and experience will show that a fold is best.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=1119485 &page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

[bisonbison]

We don't need to convince this guy to fold more. He's already folding waaaaaaaay too often.

[brick]

you better come up with an example where calling becomes the better choice.

[SuitedSixes]

My stats were misleading:
34,400 hands total. Total WatSD 70.11% 2.2BB/100
Since I've been working on getting the number to drop:
8,300 hands. WatSD 45.42%. 1.58BB/100

[Ponks]

How often do you go to Showdown?

Ponks

[J.R.]

I just feel that I am making a lot of "crying calls" lately when the math justifies a call, but my instincts tell me to fold.

You post makes no sense. The math provides you with the percentage with which you need to win to justify a call. Your "instincts", or hand reading skills, inform you as to how often your hand is good. You use them both to make your decision, its kinda like tango and cash, they are inseperable. or symbiotic. or complementary. or something. But its not one or the other, its both. they are a team. make them a winning team.

At what point do you trust your instincts despite what the math is telling you?

I always trust both my instincts and the math. If its too close to judge, then I usually call for image and information puposes. It also keeps me from tilting when I fold in big pots.

What separates a math-aware player from a calling station?

Judgment, instincts, or hand reading.

[SuitedSixes]

W2SD 33.75%

I didn't mean to make this about my crazy stats. I was just wondering for the more experienced players, when do you pay attention to experience and instinct despite what the math tells you? I am not talking about that funny feeling that makes you play Q8s in early position. I'm talking about that feeling where your pocket kings don't feel good even though there's nothing bigger than a 9 on the board.

Through this "experiment" I have been amazed at how often pocket 9's hold up on a scary board, I have also stopped anytime there are 3 spades on the board and I don't have one.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

a couple (actually a lot) of my latest posts involve me folding the river to single bets despite getting huge odds. certain situations you'll feel or just know that you're beat regardless of what the pot is laying you because of the way the hand was played out and your hand reading skills.

typically the more aggressive you are the lower your W@SD usually is. this is because you're usually putting yourself in situations where it's often "correct" to call with middle pair or even A high in some situations given the pot size. the tighter you are, generally the higher your W@SD rate is because you're usually only going to showdown winners.

however, you can't just blindly call or fold because of the pot-size. as j.r. pointed out, you must combine both your math skills and hand reading skills to make your decisions. a player just blindly calling down will lose several bets because he can't read hands. a person who folds too much on the river isn't considering how often his hand will be good.

For example, I'm a very aggressive player so I've been told, but my W@SD is a relatively high 53% or so. A guy like GoT, who's a very good hand reader and certainly can't be accused of being weak, is like at 60%.

[J.R.]

when the math justifies a call

huh? How the fact that you need to be good x% of the time for a call to be profitable justify a call on its own? (ignoring the practical consideration that arise from our inherently impercise hand reading abilities (we don't have perfect information) and the possible expection when you have the nuts in a multiway hand with players to act behind- but in that case, the call/raise decision is much more dependent on what you expect you opponent's to do when you chose to either call or raise than on the fact that the math indicates you can't be beat)

[StellarWind]

A very high showdown win percentage does not just mean that you fold too much. Two other poker sins lead to an excessive showdown win rate:

1. Failure to bet and raise good hands for value. You can't win at showdown if the other guy folds. When you slowplay inappropriately, fail to bet/raise to protect your made hands, and miss value bets on the river, you win a lot of extra showdowns against people that would have thrown their hands away.

2. Failure to bluff the river when you should. A good way to lose a lot of extra showdowns is to bluff your busted draws instead of checkfolding them. Obviously you can't go crazy with this, but missing 20% river bluffs when you are getting 10-1 pot odds will go a long way toward improving your showdown win percentage and ruining your win rate.

[donny5k]

Quick Question, let's say I value bet JJ on a queen high flop on the flop and turn into 3 opponents. If I check and it goes bet, call in front of me, should I overcall on the river? I've lost a couple pots by folding in this spot, so I guess overcalling against terrible opponents is fine.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick Question, let's say I value bet JJ on a queen high flop on the flop and turn into 3 opponents. If I check and it goes bet, call in front of me, should I overcall on the river? I've lost a couple pots by folding in this spot, so I guess overcalling against terrible opponents is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is going to depend on a million things and it would be more helpful to post a specific hand (or make one up, with reads), but pretty much if I had raised preflop, lead the flop, and lead the turn, and I found myself with JJ on a Q-high board on the river with 3 opponents, checking and calling isn't one of my options. I'd much rather check-fold or bet out and fold to a raise or maybe call the raise, totally depending on my reads and the board and how the hand played out.

[sthief09]

the more I play (which isn't that often) and read the posts here (which is that often) the better my hand reading gets. my hand reading has gotten exponentially better over my time playing poker. I'm now able to rely on it to make some seemingly marginal river raises and laydowns.. The only way to improve it is by playing and thinking about the game.