Big draw, questionable flop play

[Evan]

The convertor didn't work for some reason. This was the emailed HH, do those not work anymore? Anyway, I guess I'll have to go old school and be my own convertor.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posted BB
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

My plan was to call, since I figured the CO would raise, and then 3 bet when it came back to me...but that kind of blew up in my face. Should I have just raised here to try to clean up my aces? Do you think I could even push CO off of AK/AQ here?

Turn: (8.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

River:(16.66 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

It's times like these that I wish I was Tommy Angelo so I could fold here and then write a nice clever post about it. But I can't, I have to call even though I know I'm beat, EVERYONE knows I'm beat, but I still have to call. Am I good here 1 in 17.5 times...probably not, but I still have to call because Ed Miller made me do it.

Final Pot: 18.66 BB

*NOTE* I don't really blame Ed Miller, I know I have to call, I just felt kind of left out since I haven't made an "Ed Miller made me..." post yet and they look like so much fun.

<font color="blue"> My real question here is on the flop play. It's seems like I've been in this spot a lot lately, I flop a big draw with a preflop aggressor on my left and I'm never quite sure how to play it. At the time I thought the call-reraise was the obvious play but now I'm doubting it. I'm not sure if that's just because it didn't work or because there's a better option.</font>

[Nate tha' Great]

WTF he'd play a smaller flush this way as well a boat. I think you'll be good like 1 time in 3 here, never mind once in eighteen.

btw raise the flop.

[thirddan]

I would just raise the flop, there is no guarantee that CO will raise overcards here and if you face him with two bets it might clean up your A outs. I don't think that you can go crazy on the flop and have it be for value, better to just raise...and obviously you can't fold the river, i might even raise and call a 3bet, did you consider that BB might also have flush?

[MoreWineII]

If villian did have a boat, and from the tone of your post it sounds like he did, he got awfully durn aggressive on the turn with his set/two pair when the flush/straight card hit. I'd expect smaller flush here a lot of the time.

There's no way you can fold on the river, wtf?

In this hand, your position to the flop bettor sucks. It probably just call like you did and see what CO does and react from there.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that you can go crazy on the flop and have it be for value

[/ QUOTE ]

So do you think my idea to reraise the CO's "raise" was a bad idea/not for value?

[J.R.]

"Do you think I could even push CO off of AK/AQ here?"

CO would be getting 16-2, so I doubt it, especially if they have the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. But I think a more important point is that this was a 3-bet from a player in the CO who 3-bet an CO-1 isolation-looking raise of a preflop poster, so part of me thinks the Aces in the CO's range of hands could be much wider than AK/AQ. And maybe the BB has a draw as well (T8, diamonds) or a weakish pair (a duece or a 7), so there are other outs that could potentially be cleaned up by a flop raise (although this line of reasoning is gets pretty speculative if you try to calculate how many outs you clean up). But anyway, if you raise, maybe you clean up your outs (its a bonus), but you likely assuredly get some value, or, less likely, position if both CO and Button fold.

[huxbux]

Helps to have a read on the CO. Is he an aggressive player who will reraise with overcards when bet into on the flop or weak, passive enough to just call?

I definitely raise here, but not exclusively to clean up my outs, as it's only one reason. Even with a raise, you technically wouldn't be putting the CO in a position where he has to fold given the size of the pot. So, a raise here is more for value on your draw. I wouldn't care if CO called or folded here, either way. Also, a 3-bet by CO better defines his range of hands. So, as a side benefit a raise gives you more information.

[Evan]

I was joking about folding the river (obviously). I was pretty damn sure I was beat though, not 17.7-1 sure, but pretty sure.

I guess he could've had a smaller flush, but would a smaller flush lead the river after the turn got capped when the board paired? Obvioulsly we've all seen players that would, but I had no read on this guy as being exceptionally retarded. I'm not saying a fold is even remotely possible, but I think 1 in 3 is a little optimistic.

[Evan]

I don't mean to take over this thread....but you're the second person that said you'd expect a smaller flush here a lot. Do you guys really think that a smaller flush is leading the river in this spot given the river card and the turn action? I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on that if you could oblige.

[MoreWineII]

Would a player with a set/two pair likely bet/3-bet the turn when a straight and flush card hit?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess he could've had a smaller flush, but would a smaller flush lead the river after the turn got capped when the board paired?

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually, yes. And a larger flush (K- or Q- high) would almost certainly lead.

Also, although it is a good play to lead the flop here with a set, I think a fair number of players will try and slowplay here while a far greater number would lead with a 4-flush.

[MoreWineII]

I think it's a lot more likely that a small flush leads the river than I do a set/two pair ramming and jamming on the turn when a straight AND a flush card hits.

I just posted on the other part of this thread before I read your above question, sorry for the thread littering. :/

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry for the thread littering. :/

[/ QUOTE ]

I've littered the thread myself, so you're forgiven.

Anyway...I see what you're saying about a set not jamming the turn like that...but what does that I beat now? Maybe K7d and maaaayyyybeeee Q7d? what do you think...

[Algasm]

Wouldn't the correct play for the full house guy be to go for a c/r on the river. Or am I living in 2/4 fantasy land? You did cap the turn is it unreasonable to think that you being tight and aggressive would bet the river if checked to. I'm suprised the villian didn't go for a c/r on the flop. Maybe villian realize that 16/2 is still giving correct odds for the flush draw. I'm also curious what the chances of you getting a free turn card are if you raise the flop, 0 and none?

[Evan]

Intersting point about the c/r. I don't really know what to say. I don't think I would've bet if he had checked, as soon as I saw that 7 I was 99.9% sure I was dead. It would've been very hard to check, but I'm pretty sure I would've (which I probably would've been flamed for). Maybe he realized I had the flush and was afraid I'd check through, who knows?

Since I've basically given away the results about 10 times already (mainly because I think it's really obvious and also unimportant) he had 9's if anyone's interested.

[thirddan]

correct, i think that you need at least one more player in order for a 3bet to be for value, also CO might cap and make BB fold if he is faced with calling two...this would leave you out of position against a person that really likes there hand with you only on a draw...

[thirddan]

if BB checks the river and you don't bet, thats bad IMO...

[MoreWineII]

Kinda figured you got beaten this hand, but still that's a strange turn 3-bet for a set given what the turn card *was*.

Btw, the points about cleaning up your ace outs on this thread were good ones. Didn't even think about that. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Evan]

I don't at all. I was really really sure than he was jamming a set all the way. I know his turn play isn't how a lot of people would play it, but once he 3 bet the turn I was like 95% he ahd a set. What is so wrong with using a read on someone's hand to save a bet? Of course I'll be wrong sometimes but that's poker. Sometimes I'll also save myself a bet. I think that if someone's confident in a read on a hand there's no point in not using it.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
the points about cleaning up your ace outs on this thread were good ones

[/ QUOTE ]

I was acutally hoping we could get a little more discussion on that. I'm still not sure if that was a better play or if it was even possible to clean up any outs. My thought at the time was that the pot was probably to big to hope to get CO to fold of dominating overs that he'd 3 bet PF. That's still my htought now, but I'm really not sure. Anyone have any other thoughts about the EV of trying to clean up my aces?

[thirddan]

i think there is a good chance against a somewhat decent, but not good, (a weak player will call with anything)opponent to clean up your A outs by making CO call two cold. many players won't consider that they are getting 16-2 on their call, they just see that they are probably beaten and fold...

[thirddan]

if you are that sure of your read then of course use it. But online, i will most likely bet this river if it was checked to me, there are too many crazies out there and i would have to be really sure of my read, which online isn't too often...

[ErrantNight]

i think your read was pretty solid... and if you're sure enough about your read to make the fold, that's fine... but you need to be right more than 1 in 2 (your: sometimes i win a bet sometimes i lose a bet theorem)... need to be right in folding for one more bet for EVERY BB IN THE POT that he has a boat.

a lot of people seem to think this flop 3-bet is by the CO is inconsistent with a set, why? he had boat outs and the J wasn't much of a straight card... unless he believes hero loose enough to play T8... so all he's afraid of, potentially, is a flush... and he's got outs if that's the case...

[ErrantNight]

many reasonable players will fold AK or AQ to two bets cold on this I think... especially considering your preflop aggression and the mildly coordinate board. and they'd be wrong to call you, right?

[snaphooks]

Call me an idiot, i'm new to the forum, but i can't figure out what BB won with. Only a boat could beat you but the boat only showed up on the river, why would BB play the turn so aggressively?

[HajiShirazu]

I can't believe you even mention folding the river. I would have thought about raising. But this one falls in the 30-50% range. Not good enough to raise.