PT Stat: Folded to River Bet (my leak)

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm in search on my biggest leak. I think I've found it. I want to ask you guys, what is your Folded To River Bet percentage (mine's 49%)? Also, how many hands have you played and at what limit? I'm a 2/4 guy.

[thirddan]

42-43% thats from 2/4 and 3/6...

Im not sure but i think these kinds of questions should be posted in the software forum...

[bisonbison]

Ralph, I've taken to asking that PT discussion take place in different forums:

Books and Software (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=books)
PT Forums (http://www.pokertracker.com/forum/)

[Lost Wages]

I wouldn't sweat it. Most "Folded to a River Bet" are simply when you missed your draw. If your number is low it could mean you are checking and calling the river too much instead of betting it yourself. There seems to be a wide range values among successful players. Can't tell you mine because I'm at work /images/graemlins/blush.gif and frankly it's not a stat that I pay much attention to.

Lost Wages

[Ralph Wiggum]

gotcha, haven't been keeping up w/ forum daily lately

[Lost Wages]

Bison, I don't understand your aversion to PokerTracker stat questions. You make an excellent and detailed post describimg how you rate players based on their stats over as few a 30 hands, then routinely bash anyone who asks a question about a stat based on 1000's of hands. I just don't get it.

Lost Wages

[Ralph Wiggum]

[ QUOTE ]
If your number is low it could mean you are checking and calling the river too much instead of betting it yourself. There seems to be a wide range values among successful players.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I had a lower "Folded to River Bet", I'd be going to showdown more often, whether it's by check/calling or betting. I'm worried that I'm laying down winners too often. I'm trying to get an idea of what the range of "Folded to River Bet" values are by posting.

ps. I got well over 10k, 30k or whatever the required PT number of hands that are required to receive a response.

[Lost Wages]

OK, I did a poor job of explaining myself. We all know that folding a decent hand on the river for one more bet is usually a bad idea so we concluded that FTRB should be low. Of course, sometimes it is unavoidable as when you miss a straight or flush draw and have nothing so you fold. However, you can have a correct FTRB and still be a poor player.

Consider the two hypothetical players below. Both make it to the river 100 times, fold their 30 missed draws and never fold otherwise (or in other words, they both make it to showdown the same percentage of the time). For simplicity I assume that they are always first to act and that their opponent always bets if checked to.

Player 1 - 100 hands
30 hands - misses draw and folds to a bet
60 hands - bets the river
10 hands - check/calls the river

Player 2 - 100 hands
30 hands - misses draw and folds to a bet
10 hands - bets the river
60 hands - check/calls the river

What is each players FTRB? Player 1 sees 40 river bets and folds 30 for a FTRB of 75%. Player 2 sees 90 river bets and folds the same 30 for a FTRB of 30%. I don't think that anyone would disagree that Player 1 is the better player. So you see, too much check/calling can give you a low FTRB and thus is not a good measure of player quality.

FWIF, I'm hoping that you look more like your new avitar than your old one.

Lost Wages

[bisonbison]

Wages, there are a few things here:

1. My opinion of PT stats posts has changed over time.
I did a 10k post and I think I did a 40 or 50k post. Then I gave it some thought and realized that, as a self-diagnostic tool, PT stats suck.

If Bob's VP$IP is under 25 and over 11, there's basically nothing the stat can tell us without Bob going into some depth about the quality of games he finds, his open-limping, over-limping, cold-calling, SB completion and BB raise-calling standards. If Bob seems too tight he might just be playing Party 3/6 games in the daytime, or have lousy game selection skills, or he might undervalue suited connectors in late position, but there's no way to know, and telling him to loosen up doesn't really help.

The same really applies for all PT stats. If you're diagnosing your own game, the stats are either too broad or too vague to really do much good. People would be much better served by focusing on those game situations where they felt lost.

2. PT stats are useful. Sorta.
Yeah, I use PT to get a hold on who my opponents are, but it's not a great system, and the difference between someone who my stats describe as "very loose-passive, aggressive postflop" and "tight-passive, passive postflop" may just be a run of cards or a lousy, tight table or tilt or whatever. But it's easy to forget that when you're relying on an abstraction of an indecently small sample size of hands. The stats suggest authority that they really don't merit.

3. I think there really are more appropriate places for stat posts than in the SS forum.
After that big "why is SS so hard to use" thread last week, I decided that PT stat posts were a big offender, because they really don't promote productive discussion.

4. As for the "routinely bashing"
I'm not bashing people. I went through the same obsession with stats, but I really think it's counterproductive, and I'd prefer it if PT posts went to places where they make sense: like the official PT forums or the books/software section.

[Lost Wages]

If Bob's VP$IP is under 25 and over 11, there's basically nothing the stat can tell us...

Well, you've stretched the range a bit but in general I agree. But when Bob's VP$IP is 39 or his AF-T is 0.5 then I think that we can draw some conclusions.

the stats are either too broad or too vague to really do much good.

Hem-haw, well, uh, I dunno, maybe not. Is it meaningful to compare the batting averages of a leadoff hitter in the American League with that of a cleanup hitter in the National? Probably not but we all do it anyway.

People would be much better served by focusing on those game situations where they felt lost.

Again, I agree. But hey, what's wrong with doing both?

I think there really are more appropriate places for stat posts than in the SS forum...I'd prefer it if PT posts went to places where they make sense: like the official PT forums or the books/software section.

Here I have to disagree. If I want to know how to set-up a new PT database I go to one of those places. If I want to tell a joke, I post in the zoo. If I want to discuss poker theory, I come here and really "What should my VP$IP be?" is a theory question not a software question. Before PT we didn't have any convenient way to address this.

I'm not bashing people.

OK, bashing was too strong a word. Perhaps you'll allow me "boorish indignation" /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

I really think it's counterproductive, and I'd prefer it if PT posts went to places where they make sense

Well, OK, but making useless replies is counterproductive as well and really, what % of the posts here are PT related? Besides, this is a group so you can't always have things as you prefer /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Bison, I have the utmost respect for you and the work that you have done both with the Converter and your intelligent posts. Looking forward to many years of continued discussion.

Lost Wages

[bisonbison]

Is it meaningful to compare the batting averages of a leadoff hitter in the American League with that of a cleanup hitter in the National? Probably not but we all do it anyway.

But that's the thing. Winning at poker is too complex and the stats available are too vague to do the heavy-lifting that we'd like them to do.

If you're a baseball nerd you know that various batting metrics actually do a pretty good job of predicting team run production. Batting average is not one of them. Imagine if all we had to go on was batting average. And then we discovered RBI and we thought we'd hit the motherload. I mean, look right there! It's run production in a nutshell! Except it's not. Individual batting average and RBI both suck at describing offensive contribution, and I think, for the moment, PT stats are basically the same way. And as far as I can tell, there's no OPS waiting right around the corner to be discovered as the measure of all things.

Perhaps you'll allow me "boorish indignation"

I asked for it for my 9th birthday, and it's served me well ever since.

Well, OK, but making useless replies is counterproductive

Granted, but I've spent a ton of time delving into pokertracker and have decided that in the short run (which is what 99% of these posts cover), the stats of the best player in the world might be margin-of-errorable with one of us schmoes.

as well and really, what % of the posts here are PT related?

I don't know. How big is the pebble in your shoe?