First hand - cowboys - call an all-in PF?

[The Student]

Here's an interesting hand that came up that I wanted to hear your thoughts on.

So, after some success in some $20 - $30 buy-in MTTs, I decided to try my hand at a $50 MTT. I was playing on UltimateBet and was dealt Kings on the very first hand (so I had no reads on anyone). Yeah! The blinds were 5/10 and so I raised the size of the pot (up to 35) from UTG+1. I got a call two seats behind me and then the guy in CO+1 raises all-in.

I figured that there is a minimal chance that he has aces (let's say less than 10%), and that I'm a big favorite over any other pocket pair, and still a favorite if he has an ace. The reason that I put his chances of having pocket aces so low is: 1) mathematical chances of him actually having aces are very low (much more likely he has a strong ace or a smaller PP), and 2) I don't know who would pay $50 buy-in and then play aces like he's too afraid to see the flop. In a cheaper MTT, I would not be as surprised to see a relatively inexperienced player play aces like this, but I figured that this your average player in a $50 MTT is very unlikely to play aces this way.

In the end, I called because I thought I had the best hand and because I thought the hand would be heads-up (I figured that if the guy who initially called my T35 bet had a hand good enough to call 2 all-ins, then he probably would have raised me immediately instead of just calling me).

Thoughts on my analysis? What would you have done? Anyone think that since you've only put in T35 of your initial T1000 stack, that it's not worth the risk here?

ts-

[TStoneMBD]

i never knew KK stood for Kant Kall

[juris]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an interesting hand that came up that I wanted to hear your thoughts on.

So, after some success in some $20 - $30 buy-in MTTs, I decided to try my hand at a $50 MTT. I was playing on UltimateBet and was dealt Kings on the very first hand (so I had no reads on anyone). Yeah! The blinds were 5/10 and so I raised the size of the pot (up to 35) from UTG+1. I got a call two seats behind me and then the guy in CO+1 raises all-in.

I figured that there is a minimal chance that he has aces (let's say less than 10%), and that I'm a big favorite over any other pocket pair, and still a favorite if he has an ace. The reason that I put his chances of having pocket aces so low is: 1) mathematical chances of him actually having aces are very low (much more likely he has a strong ace or a smaller PP), and 2) I don't know who would pay $50 buy-in and then play aces like he's too afraid to see the flop. In a cheaper MTT, I would not be as surprised to see a relatively inexperienced player play aces like this, but I figured that this your average player in a $50 MTT is very unlikely to play aces this way.

In the end, I called because I thought I had the best hand and because I thought the hand would be heads-up (I figured that if the guy who initially called my T35 bet had a hand good enough to call 2 all-ins, then he probably would have raised me immediately instead of just calling me).

Thoughts on my analysis? What would you have done? Anyone think that since you've only put in T35 of your initial T1000 stack, that it's not worth the risk here?

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

Call everytime. Don't give the $50 MTT player too much credit until the first hour is gone.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on my analysis? What would you have done? Anyone think that since you've only put in T35 of your initial T1000 stack, that it's not worth the risk here?

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is 1085 and you need to call 965. Those are the relevant odds. The fact that only T35 of the pot is "yours" is completely irrelevant.

With KK, this is a must-call. Even if he flips over AA, it was still right to call.

[willie]

absolute call

double up early and get your go on.

[SossMan]

that's a lot of analysis for a sickingly easy call. It's like coming up with an elegant scientific proof that the sky is blue when you could have simply looked up.

[jcm4ccc]

Since there is no information about this player, I think it's close to 50-50 as to whether he has Aces.

What hands would he play like this?
AA
KK (unlikely he has this)
QQ
AK (unlikely he would raise all-in with this, plus you already have one of the Kings)
Pure bluff

So I say it's either AA or QQ. So it's a coin toss.

Here's a question for you--if someone said to you before the tournament, I will flip a coin and if it comes up heads, I will double your stack. It it comes up tails, I will take away your stack. Would you take him up on this offer? If your answer is yes, go all-in with your kings. If your answer is no, fold.

I expect to get a lot of flak for this answer. The bottom line is, you are betting your whole tournament on whether this guy is a reasonable player or not, and you know nothing about him.

[The Student]

Thanks for all the quick responses. In truth, I didn't spend that long pondering this before I called, but I just wanted to see if anyone would drop here and why.

Follow-up question:
Same situation, but this time you have queens. Since it is now more likely that you are not so strongly ahead in the hand (if at all) PF, do you still call here?

ts-

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I expect to get a lot of flak for this answer. The bottom line is, you are betting your whole tournament on whether this guy is a reasonable player or not, and you know nothing about him.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying a "reasonable" player overbets the pot by 11x on the first hand of the tourney w/ AA preflop? Is this the more likely the move of a Gus Hansen or someone who has watched too much Gus Hansen?

[SossMan]

I call w/ QQ, too. I would probably lay down JJ the first time...if he pulls that again, though, I'm calling w/ TT/JJ, too.

[jcm4ccc]

Well, think about it. There have been 5 people who have said they would call the all-in. I used to think (actually, I still think) that people who go all-in with their aces pre-flop are stupid. But too many times I've seen people call the bet that I'm beginning to think it's not a bad strategy.

[The Student]

I really don't think the chances that he has aces here are anywhere close to 50%. In fact, in some of the cheaper MTTs and SNGs I've played, I've seen a number of players pull this move before on the first round. One player I've got notes on, likes to re-raise all-in a couple of times in the first level (the one time I saw him called he had 8/9s), and then gears down for the next couple of levels and will only overbet like this again with very strong hands (big PPs). I think that there are other players like this guy who try to push early a few times to set an image as being a loose cannon, and they then try to trap opponents with huge hands.

My initial question was really whether or not anyone thinks that an unknown player in a $50 MTT would ever play aces like this PF.

And to answer your question, I would not take the coin-flip bet because I have more faith in my tournament skills that I don't need to risk that much so early in the tourney. I called here because I was ahead against any possible hand except for aces, but I thought there was only a minimal chance that the pusher actually had aces.
So in the end, I don't think your question is really relevant when I had kings. However, I then posted my follow-up question about what to do with queens in this hand because in that situation I think that it is much more likely that you would be facing big slick, which would in fact, make your chances much more like a coinflip.

ts-

[0evg0]

Is this a joke? You think this is a coinflip if he calls? Ridiculous. Sure this guy could have AA, or (less likely) KK, but he could just as easily be playing QQ, JJ, TT, AK, maybe even AQ. Yet you feel that it is safe to exclude these from the equation? This is an obvious call, and I'd rather get dealt 72o for the next 50 hands than fold this. I'd say your odds of winning this hand are much higher than 50%, and probably somewhere around your original estimate of 89%.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, think about it. There have been 5 people who have said they would call the all-in. I used to think (actually, I still think) that people who go all-in with their aces pre-flop are stupid. But too many times I've seen people call the bet that I'm beginning to think it's not a bad strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you could gaurantee that someone else had KK when I held AA, then I think pushing w/ AA preflop is definitely correct.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, think about it. There have been 5 people who have said they would call the all-in. I used to think (actually, I still think) that people who go all-in with their aces pre-flop are stupid. But too many times I've seen people call the bet that I'm beginning to think it's not a bad strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

The are calling because they have KK. If you have AA you also want AK, AQ, QQ, JJ coming along for the ride. When I see those big overbets, I expect to see small-medium pocket pairs. Preflop they feel like decent hands but postflop you are almost always looking at overs so if you don't have the trips you have to fold.

If instead of your opponnent going all in, he was raised to like 300-400. What would you do?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If instead of your opponnent going all in, he was raised to like 300-400. What would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, good point.

[freemont]

As Dan Harrington once said, "I'm not good enough to fold kings." You call if he flips Aces, eh, you still have a chance to suckout. If you win that hand you're on your way, you lose it, better than going 3 more hours playing tight before bubbling out...

Perhaps if it is a tournament where the stacks are MUCH deeper (like WSOP deep) you should fold, but I call 100% of the time in a normal internet tournament structure...

[The Student]

I like that Dan Harrington quote, and I agree with you about better to bust out here than on the bubble.

Follow-up question:
Same situation but this time you are facing the re-raise all-in while holding queens. Do you call here or fold?

ts-

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
I like that Dan Harrington quote, and I agree with you about better to bust out here than on the bubble.

Follow-up question:
Same situation but this time you are facing the re-raise all-in while holding queens. Do you call here or fold?

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

If it is still a $50 MTT on UB, I call all day.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
So in the end, I don't think your question is really relevant when I had kings. However, I then posted my follow-up question about what to do with queens in this hand because in that situation I think that it is much more likely that you would be facing big slick, which would in fact, make your chances much more like a coinflip.


[/ QUOTE ]

AKo vs QQ is not a coinflip! It's 57 vs 43.

Bankroll is not a concern for ME, so the fact that it's a 50 (vs a 10, for arguments sake) does not play. If someone told me they had AK and I had QQ, and I was 57% to double up, sign me up, I'll do that every tournament. I feel if you were to fold in this exact spot, knowing opponents holecards, is giving up too much EV.

[Chaostracize]

Don't flame me, but I have a statement and a question.

You can't win the tournament on the first level.

And the question is, regardless of having the second best hand preflop, is the call worth it regardless of EV? If against AA, you're out. AK 30 percent of the time you're out. Unders, your 15-20 percent out. I'm playing devil's advocate here cause I don't think I could fold either, but I'm surprised that there wasn't one person who said fold, and wait till you see how the table plays. If the same dude pushes for the next four hands, and you look down and see 99, call, but on the first hand? I think there's a strong argument for folding.

[The4thFilm]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't flame me, but I have a statement and a question.

You can't win the tournament on the first level.

And the question is, regardless of having the second best hand preflop, is the call worth it regardless of EV? If against AA, you're out. AK 30 percent of the time you're out. Unders, your 15-20 percent out. I'm playing devil's advocate here cause I don't think I could fold either, but I'm surprised that there wasn't one person who said fold, and wait till you see how the table plays. If the same dude pushes for the next four hands, and you look down and see 99, call, but on the first hand? I think there's a strong argument for folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stay in play money.

[squallA964]

On the first hand in an online game, I call without a second thought. People go all in on the first hands of these things with practically anything, just looking to get lucky and double up earlier so that they can use their early chip lead to steal pots and play aggressive. If he Aces, congratulate his luck and move on.

Still, while I'm here, here's a question. In a 10+1 MTT at pokerroom. I'm chip leader with about 60,000, blinds are 1k-2k, we're down to 12 people. I'm in the BB and get KK. Table has been pretty tight for the past 45 minutes. UTG, 3rd in chips with about 30,000, goes all-in. Everyone folds to me. I'm almost certain this guy has Aces from watching him. If I fold, I know with the players left I can coast to at least 3rd or 4th. If I call and he has Aces, I lose a huge chunk of chips. If I call and he doesn't, I'd have such a huge lead that I know I'll take 1st or 2nd. What do I do?

Anyway, I called and he had AA. And I'm still wondering if its a +EV play to call a rock when you're 85% sure he has Aces, and it's the difference between finishing 10th and 4th, or 1st.

[Chaostracize]

I can't. I owe some guy 1,000,000,000 play chips, and if he ever sees me he'll break my legs. That's the ONLY reason I play for money.

Otherwise, good post.

[freemont]

Same exact situation but with QQ I'm likely folding.

Just out of curiosity (even though it doesn't matter) what did your opponents have?

[GFunk911]

Um, if you're honestly 85% sure has aces, then you fold. If you're exaggerating and you just think he has aces but he could really have a whole range of hands, then it would depend on other factors

[Chief911]

Are you honestly asking this, or simply being results oriented that you got beat on the hand (I have not read the responses to see if you posted results). If you are not willing to shove your chips in first hand with KK in a $50 tournament, stop playing. Period.

http://www.bettheriver.com/image/pushit.jpg

Nick

[cferejohn]

Easy call.

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on my analysis? What would you have done? Anyone think that since you've only put in T35 of your initial T1000 stack, that it's not worth the risk here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's somewhat fuzzy thinking. The point it that there is ~1000 in the pot and you're going to make a call getting 1:1 with odds that are probably much much better than that to win it. How many of the chips are *yours* doesn't matter in the slightest, and you are (obviously) way way too far from the money to worry about survival.

If it's aces, well, make a note on the guy, but in these medium-ish buy-in events, I think it is something worse easily often enough to make this call good.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't flame me, but I have a statement and a question.

You can't win the tournament on the first level.

And the question is, regardless of having the second best hand preflop, is the call worth it regardless of EV? If against AA, you're out. AK 30 percent of the time you're out. Unders, your 15-20 percent out. I'm playing devil's advocate here cause I don't think I could fold either, but I'm surprised that there wasn't one person who said fold, and wait till you see how the table plays. If the same dude pushes for the next four hands, and you look down and see 99, call, but on the first hand? I think there's a strong argument for folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are almost certainly getting much much better than the 1:1 odds needed to make the call. If you double your stack, your EV for the tournament doubles (OK, OK, *slghtly* less than doubles). Playing for survival anywhere other than very very close to the money is a mistake, and even then people usually do it too often (other than in super-sattelite situations, where you really do need to make very large adjustments).

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, think about it. There have been 5 people who have said they would call the all-in. I used to think (actually, I still think) that people who go all-in with their aces pre-flop are stupid. But too many times I've seen people call the bet that I'm beginning to think it's not a bad strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, getting a call out of KK doesn't really gain you anything here. If you make a "normal" raise, you're probably going to be able to get KK all-in preflop anyway. Having KK when the other person has AA just sucks, and unless you have some combination of ESP, marked cards, and/or stacks of 200-300x the BB or more, you're probably not going to be getting away from it (or rather, you *shouldn't* be getting away from it).

On the other hand, you're going to have AA when someone else has KK exactly as often, so it will all equal out (well, really it won't, but the point is that if you played against an infinite number of monkeys sitting at an infinite number of typewriters it would).

...or something like that. "It was the best of times it was the BLURST of times??!! You idiot!"

[Punker]

"AK (unlikely he would raise all-in with this, plus you already have one of the Kings)"

Even if you have KK, there are still 8 combinations of AK out there. There are only 6 combinations of AA. So even holding KK, he is still more likely to have AK than AA.

[The4thFilm]

So you're painfully unfunny AND you don't know how to play poker.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't flame me, but I have a statement and a question.

You can't win the tournament on the first level.

And the question is, regardless of having the second best hand preflop, is the call worth it regardless of EV? If against AA, you're out. AK 30 percent of the time you're out. Unders, your 15-20 percent out. I'm playing devil's advocate here cause I don't think I could fold either, but I'm surprised that there wasn't one person who said fold, and wait till you see how the table plays. If the same dude pushes for the next four hands, and you look down and see 99, call, but on the first hand? I think there's a strong argument for folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

On what level, exactly, can you win the tournament in one hand?

If you have a 1% chance to win the tournament at the outset, then doubling your stack gives you a 2% chance. You only get so many good moneymaking opportunities during the course of a tournament, and the winner is going to be the person who makes the most of them, not the person who folds them away.

Pure chance gives you a 50% chance to double your initial stack before you go bust. If you get a chance to do significantly better, you need to take it. There is no strategy that will give you a 100% chance to double up, or even a 90% chance. We have been over this a million times and every respected tournament veteran agrees.

[Chaostracize]

Someone breaking my legs is painful!

HI-OOHHHHHHH!

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call.

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on my analysis? What would you have done? Anyone think that since you've only put in T35 of your initial T1000 stack, that it's not worth the risk here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's somewhat fuzzy thinking. The point it that there is ~1000 in the pot and you're going to make a call getting 1:1 with odds that are probably much much better than that to win it. How many of the chips are *yours* doesn't matter in the slightest, and you are (obviously) way way too far from the money to worry about survival.

If it's aces, well, make a note on the guy, but in these medium-ish buy-in events, I think it is something worse easily often enough to make this call good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another poster also pointed out this hole in my thinking, and I agree - I really shouldn't have been thinking of what I had already put into the pot, just what the pot odds were. It's something I'm working on, but thanks for pointing it out.

ts-

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
Bankroll is not a concern for ME, so the fact that it's a 50 (vs a 10, for arguments sake) does not play. If someone told me they had AK and I had QQ, and I was 57% to double up, sign me up, I'll do that every tournament. I feel if you were to fold in this exact spot, knowing opponents holecards, is giving up too much EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason that I was clear to mention that it was a $50 buy-in was because I wanted to hear what other posters thought about these kinds of plays in a MTT of this type of small/medium sized buy-in. I have played a lot of $10 - $30 MTTs and I feel that I know what types of hands I would see making this PF all-in re-raise on the first hand, but because this was my first $50 buy-in, I didn't know if I should expect to see the same types of hands. My thinking was that in a very cheap MTT, someone might do this with aces because they're too afraid to see the flop, but I doubted that anyone would do this in a $50 tourney with aces because I assumed that the players have more confidence in their skills - so they wouldn't push with aces here because they would prefer try to build a bigger pot rather than shoving everyone out of the pot PF.

ts-

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
"It was the best of times it was the BLURST of times??!! You idiot!"


[/ QUOTE ]

I missed that the first time through....nice