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View Full Version : Evaluating pot-odds in NL


03-19-2002, 02:23 PM
I'm new to NL: Understanding pot-odds in no-limit is challenging. I'm not a mathematician but I can figure round-about odds from my structured limit experience and book-knowledge. Evaluating pot-odds in NL HE seems very speculative as opposed to the fixed limit game. For example: If your pot size potential is determined by the size of all of the involved [in the pot] opponents' stacks + the dead money already in the pot, wouldn't in be correct to call like a fish (pre flop) with just about anything in a tight-passive game {very few raises and lots of folding}? (of course semi-bluff raises with mediocre cards is always worth a few shots in this kind of game...but that aside) Considering your bet may be $.50 versus a potential $100+ possibility if you hit your hand just right. Of course you should dump pre-flop to a 3x BB raise or larger with truly trash hands and lots of callers. Hence, after the flop hits are where the NL skills become paramount to one's success. Of course, discounting the unusual occurrence that all the players who called preflop will actually go all-in in that one hand...but it could happen. More than likely, an all-in play will produce all-to-fold or one remaining opponent. Or just a (less-than-all-in) big bet needs to have some mathematical reconciliation. I think to myself: "How much do I bet to make my opponents flush draw too expensive?" So how does one judge bet value versus all of these variables?

03-19-2002, 11:22 PM
> How much do I bet to make my opponents flush draw too expensive?


If you _know_ that your opponent is on a flush draw, his implied odds are exactly zero, so any amount higher than 1/3 of the pot (which gives him exactly the necessary 4:1 pot odds) makes drawing unprofitable for him.


If OTOH if _he_ knows that you are willing to call an all-in bet with your straight when the flush comes, then he would be right to call any ammount up to about 1/4 of your stack even if the actual pot contains only the blinds, b/c from his perspective, your whole stack _is_ already in the pot as he can make you put it there whenever he wishes, so he still gets 4:1 on the call.


So, while you can mathematically define the possible interval, I guess the correct minimum betsize is mainly determined by the relative skill of the players and the quality of their reads, since your bet will have to protect your hand not merely against the turn of an unfriedly card, but also against your own mistakes.


cu


Ignatius

03-20-2002, 11:51 PM
See...I knew it was challenging. What a game!!


Thanks