Turn capped. Cap the river?

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed)

It's late. I'm falling asleep and just waiting for the blinds so I can go to bed. I got no reads.

Preflop: BigBeitzim is MP1 with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $3. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG folds, BigBeitzim calls, MP2 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, BigBeitzim calls, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BigBeitzim bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">BigBeitzim 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, BigBeitzim calls.

River: (12 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BigBeitzim bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, BigBeitzim calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

[AdamL]

I'm usually up against a T or a J here often enough. I'd cap turn and jam river too. Since MP2 is a poster, it's just as likely he has some wierd T or J... and you certainly don't worry about T6.

For what it's worth...

[J.R.]

"I'm usually up against a T or a J here often enough"

really?

I think I prefer a call because of your opponent's failure to slow down on the flush card, turn cap and and flop slowplay / turn raise combo (fishy big hand betting pattern). Hero is agaisnt a default, unkown opponent. I think the average unknown player isn't a nut, and certainly doesn't have a J here. Perhaps most significantly, the 3-bet opens hero up to a cap (which tens full will almost always do), so hero must have the best hand around 2/3rds of the time for the 3-bet to be in the break-even neighborhood. I think this is an easy call unless you have a fairly good read that indicates otherwise.

[BaronVonCP]

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and you certainly don't worry about T6.



[/ QUOTE ]

Can you worry about JT?

I'm calling the river raise against most opponents.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

MP2 had T7o &amp; MHIG.

[AdamL]

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and you certainly don't worry about T6.



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Can you worry about JT?


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Since he is a poster, I don't think it's as likely.

[J.R.]

Huh? How does the fact opponent posted mean that T6 or JT aren't likely (or not as likely as what)?

[AdamL]

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm usually up against a T or a J here often enough"

really?

I think I prefer a call because of your opponent's failure to slow down on the flush card, turn cap and and flop slowplay / turn raise combo (fishy big hand betting pattern). Hero is agaisnt a default, unkown opponent. I think the average unknown player isn't a nut, and certainly doesn't have a J here. Perhaps most significantly, the 3-bet opens hero up to a cap (which tens full will almost always do), so hero must have the best hand around 2/3rds of the time for the 3-bet to be in the break-even neighborhood. I think this is an easy call unless you have a fairly good read that indicates otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right about this come to think of it, despite the outcome. I think I was putting too much emphasis on the early part of the hand.

[AdamL]

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Huh? How does the fact opponent posted mean that T6 or JT aren't likely (or not as likely as what)?

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If he had limped, I wouldn't consider him to have T3o. Since he is a poster, he can have any T.

So if a guy normally limps with JT, T9, and QT.. for example, that's 1 in 3.

But a poster can have any T at all.

[kelvin474]

If we assume he's got at least a Ten, we don't know what kind of other card they gave him. If he paid to see the flop and is at all a thinking player, T2, T3, T4, etc become less likely, which means increasing likelihood of the ones he's more likely to play like T9s, JT and AT, etc.

[J.R.]

True, from a sheer probabality persepctive he could have any T, but when combined with the manner in which our opponent has played (and of course the results are anomolous with what I am about to type, but anyway /images/graemlins/tongue.gif), the fact that this guy is a poster weighs against us, IMO, because he is represnting a full house (or a big T to a lesser extent). If he limped and was reasonable we could rule out many full houses (T6, T2) which we cannot as a result of his post, so I think the fact he is a poster weighs against us because there are many more combinations of tens full that he could logically hold here.

In addition, I would imagine most players would slow down with a Tx where the x is a crappy kicker, and since he is a poster and we don't have a read, shouldn't we assume he isn't a nut (even though he turned out to be one)?

[sublime]

Milo-

The fact that MP2 is a poster makes ANY T a possability. I hate not being on the same side of the fence as JR (I peeked /images/graemlins/blush.gif) But I think you should 3-bet this river. If MP had Vp$IP then JT is very possible and a call would be in order.

Disclaimer:
I am laggish /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[sublime]

True, from a sheer probabality persepctive he could have any T, but when combined with the manner in which our opponent has played

What manner is that? He bet and raised at every chance on the expensive streets, which falls in line with how fish play a hand that they THINK is the nuts but is in fact, fragile.

A read on this player would be great of course /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[sublime]

JR-

I was doing some studying last night and came across the "do i raise JJ in the SB thread"

Nice freaking posts in that thread brutha!

How long have you been this good? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[J.R.]

'He bet and raised at every chance on the expensive streets, which falls in line with how fish play a hand that they THINK is the nuts but is in fact, fragile."

I think you mean LAG, not fish. He capped the turn and raised the river when the flush came (not what a fish (i.e. loose passive) does)- but more importantly, he will almost assuredly cap with a full house. Are you good better than 2/3rds of the time against an unkown opponent?

I don't know what standards we can use to define LAG, but great majority of the players in my PT database are not what I would describe as aggressive, and I wouldn't expect the average partyer to go ape with trips, no kicker in the face of continued aggression on a 3 flushed board. And we have to be right more than 2/3rds of the time for a 3-bet to be correct.

The LAGs certainly stick out (perhpas its selective memory), but I don't think "LAG" is fairly represenative of a healthy sample of the middle of the road, default party 3-6ers.

[spamuell]

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How long have you been this good? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

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Ages. Which is why you should listen to him about not capping here. I don't think you are good here two thirds of the time (although in reality it has to be a little less than this, because we're only calling a cap because the opponent could cap with a worse hand than ours, but it doesn't have to be much less).

[sublime]

I think you mean LAG, not fish. He capped the turn and raised the river when the flush came (not what a fish (i.e. loose passive) does)- but more importantly, he will almost assuredly cap with a full house. Are you good better than 2/3rds of the time against an unkown opponent?

Fair enough.

This hand would be much easier with a read (thats gonna be my location after the playoffs /images/graemlins/smile.gif), as I am sure you agree with me as the level of aggression(your opponents) goes up, so does the need to 3-bet here.

[sublime]

Ages. Which is why you should listen to him about not capping here. I don't think you are good here two thirds of the time (although in reality it has to be a little less than this, because we're only calling a cap because the opponent could cap with a worse hand than ours, but it doesn't have to be much less).

Against a total unknown I really think its close, but I see what you guys are saying.

[BaronVonCP]

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I think this is an easy call unless you have a fairly good read that indicates otherwise.

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At least I'm not alone.