I folded AK suited

[MilwaukeeBull]

About an hour and a half into a live tournament, I was in the big blind. I had a total of about 21000. This put me at about 3rd at my table. Blinds were 500/1000. Everyone folded except for the cutoff who went all in for 14700. I looked down and saw AK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Knowing that to get to the end would require me to survive, I decided to fold. I had no true read on this guy. He had done this once before at the table and was not called down. I had just gone on a small rush to get where I was at and the cards had gone cold again before AK showed up.
Is this a spot to just take a chance and look to knock someone out or is folding a good idea? I would later see him do the exact same thing with pocket jacks. I ended up in 6th out of 85.

As always, comments and insight are greatly appreciated.

[betgo]

Call. Late position raises are suspicious. All you are worried about are AA and KK, and it is unlikely he would have overbet so much with either. You are probably either a slight dog or a 3-1 favorite plus pot odds.

[JARID]

Milwaukee,

How many people are left and where do you need to get? That would be helpful.

Having said that, I applaud the fold. This is 2/3 of your stack he is putting you to the test for. There is a chance you have him dominated, but I think more likely you are facing a pair. Probably 77-TT and he just doesn't want to have to take a flop with anybody.

I know people in my home games that would do this with as little as A9o, so obviously I would call there, but here if you don't feel like gambling then I think its ok.

In TPFAP, they talk extensively about the benefit of getting all the chips in with AK. Part of the +EV is the folding equity associated with shoving all-in. You don't have that here, so I don't think folding is as terrible as some might speculate. Calling would not be a crime against humanity, but the fold is ok IMO.

-Jarid

[MLG]

Unless you know this opponent to be extremely tight you need to call here. Its a lot easier to say that than to actually do it, but its clearly right.

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you know this opponent to be extremely tight you need to call here. Its a lot easier to say that than to actually do it, but its clearly right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Perhaps from an odds perspective, but is it clearly wrong to fold? I think it would be tougher to fold than to call, but given hero's description of the events and his apparent goal for the tourney (survival) I was inclined to say ditch it.

Am I way off here?

Thanks-
Jarid

[AllUcanEatBby]

call here every time, he doesnt have AA or KK here, most likely Ax

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unless you know this opponent to be extremely tight you need to call here. Its a lot easier to say that than to actually do it, but its clearly right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Perhaps from an odds perspective, but is it clearly wrong to fold? I think it would be tougher to fold than to call, but given hero's description of the events and his apparent goal for the tourney (survival) I was inclined to say ditch it.

Am I way off here?

Thanks-
Jarid

[/ QUOTE ]

You are either a small dog or a big favorite. The call is clear.

Survival and accumulating chips are not opposing values.

[MLG]

Well if his goal is survival rather than victory he's giving up a lot of EV, but if thats a consacious decision then fine fold. Yes, he's a big stack, but he only has like 20x, thats not all that massive.

So, lets explicitly figure out what hands he does this with. How about pairs 99 and up, as well as AK, AQ, AJ, I think thats a fairly standard range (given that this is the second time he's done it at the table, I'll assume he doesnt need a monster here).

So,
3 ways to make AA, and KK (given that you have an A, and K),
6 ways to make QQ, JJ, 1010, 99
9 ways to make AK
12 ways to make AQ, AJ.
In total there are 63 possible hands in this range, however, im gonna discount the 9 AKs as immaterial as they will almost always be split pots.

Against 24 of them you are roughly 75% fav. so (24/54)(.75)
Against KK you will win 33%, AA 12% so (3/54)(.33)+(3/54)(.12)
Against the other 24 hands you are a little worse than 50%, lets call it 45%, so (24/54)(.45).

Then we add up the weighted averages we get about 58% equity.

Granted this whole analysis is subject to the fact that i cant do simple math, but it should be close. 58% is too big an edge to pass up here, if you have your eyes on first.

[gergery]

I’d add two things to this.

1) People who push with JJ are the kind of people who like to limp with AA/KK. I’d discount the odds you’re up against those hands.
2) You are roughly EV neutral vs. QQ-22 here. You get all your EV value from the times he has AQ or worse. If you can rule in or out which weaker aces he would do this with, you can better pin down how good your EV is. In other words, don’t bother thinking “would he do this with 77 or 33 or not”. Instead, think “would he do this with ATs, KQs, or just AJ?”. That’s why its particularly important to pay attention to how all-in pushers play AQ-A7 hands.

--Greg

[JARID]

....I'd just be playing devils advocate if I tried to fight this anymore. I think I was just being over-sensitive to his desire to survive. As fnurt pointed out calling here and surviving are not mutually exclusive.

And apparently my hypocrisy knows no bounds; /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

PP MTT 30+3

UTG+1 - ~T30k

Hero is MP2 w/ AKs - ~T31k

Pre-flop -

UTG - all-in T30k


Hero in MP2 feels like a tool for his earlier comments, prays for AQ and calls.

UTG flips over AQ! sweet

No one improves and I doube up! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Couple of differences though. I was already in the money, blinds were huge, UTG was really loose and I wanted to make a push for first.

-Jarid

[TStoneMBD]

id like to add one more thing, if you think about this from the mind of the pusher you will see the this is criminal to fold here. if people know that you are going to fold AK to a cutoff raise youll get raised every time.

[xerostar]

I think a big mindset is how late it is into the tournament, are you in the money, how far are you from the money, etc etc. Obviously if there are only 20 payouts and there are 200 people, you should not gamble for a potential coinflip.

However, I see it that when you're near to double the payout number (around 40 people), you should strive to maximize your chip stack, and this is definitely one of those opportunites. You could have him totally dominated. Don't think about making the money all the time, sometimes you gotta go for the gold...especially with low buy in tournaments. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously if there are only 20 payouts and there are 200 people, you should not gamble for a potential coinflip.


[/ QUOTE ]

What? Thats not obvious at all, and pretty wrong. If you play like that you will always always always be short stacked as the money approaches.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I looked down and saw AK . Knowing that to get to the end would require me to survive, I decided to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

god, if I thought i could get AKs to fold when I open steal-err open raise from the CO w/ my garbage J9o, I would jump for joy. what's worse is you probably showed it in a hellmuthian-esque move of ego-maximo.

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
id like to add one more thing, if you think about this from the mind of the pusher you will see the this is criminal to fold here. if people know that you are going to fold AK to a cutoff raise youll get raised every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed.

-Jarid

[russian ace]

If you make folds like this on regular basis you can be just about assured of never winning a tourney.
Ace

[MilwaukeeBull]

I wouldn't fold this everytime. I folded as maybe a third of the field was gone. I didn't have a read on the player at the time and figured to have a chance to make it to the final table, it was better to lay it down.
Later I would get AQ, AQ and AJ 3 times in a row and lost each hand. Raised from mid position on each 3x blinds, then 2xs and then limped just to have the first go down to KK, the second I mucked to two re-raises with the winner showing AK and making a full house. The AJ went down to a nothing flop and a big bet.

[MilwaukeeBull]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I looked down and saw AK . Knowing that to get to the end would require me to survive, I decided to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

god, if I thought i could get AKs to fold when I open steal-err open raise from the CO w/ my garbage J9o, I would jump for joy. what's worse is you probably showed it in a hellmuthian-esque move of ego-maximo.

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon Soss, why the insult?

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
it was better to lay it down

[/ QUOTE ]

I spent a considerable amount of my math brain cells (very limited to begin with) showing that in fact it was not better to lay down. You keep asserting your play was right, despite the numbers, and the examples of everybody else, thats cool. Post some numbers of your own, a range of hands, something, dont just blindly assert that a play that we've shown to be incorrect is right.

[MLG]

cuz he's right

[MilwaukeeBull]

[ QUOTE ]

If you make folds like this on regular basis you can be just about assured of never winning a tourney.
Ace

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't make a fold like this often. In this case, it felt like the thing to do without a read.

When would be the time to lay this down? Bubble range or going against a total rock?

[MilwaukeeBull]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it was better to lay it down

[/ QUOTE ]

I spent a considerable amount of my math brain cells (very limited to begin with) showing that in fact it was not better to lay down. You keep asserting your play was right, despite the numbers, and the examples of everybody else, thats cool. Post some numbers of your own, a range of hands, something, dont just blindly assert that a play that we've shown to be incorrect is right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am not articulating this correctly. I am not saying it was the right play to make. I am looking for feedback to help improve my game. You prior analysis was excellent and got me to thinking. It seemed more explanation was needed as to my action.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
c'mon Soss, why the insult?

[/ QUOTE ]

just trying to be funny

[ddubois]

PokerStove says AKs has 55% equity against AA-99, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo. Add in the fact that 1) hero has villan covered, 2) the pot is giving an overlay, and 3) this is a pessimistic range of hands, it seems like an easy call.

[MLG]

not bad, my air math was pretty close.