Flopped the nuts, turned the third nuts

[ddubois]

Critique this line, if you will, please.

What impact does the deepness of both hero's and villan stack have on your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">BB ($251.6)</font>
UTG ($93)
<font color="C00000">Hero ($312.4)</font>
UTG+2 ($161.5)
MP1 ($75.95)
MP2 ($78.9)
MP3 ($50.5)
CO ($126.2)
Button ($106.35)
SB ($76.3)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($15) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($27) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to $30</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to ???</font>

[TheGrifter]

You should flat call his raise. Then call a reasonable bet on the end if you don't improve, bet/raise big if you boat up.

You might be beat here, but you might also be way ahead of a two pair type hand. Folding is not an option, re-raising the turn will get you into trouble.

[nrinker]

why did you bet 6 into 15 on the flop?

[cornell2005]

what grifter said

[ddubois]

why did you bet 6 into 15 on the flop?

Well, here was my very questionable thought process: I have top set heads-up on a nearly drawless boards (only gutshots possible); I don't want to blow him off a pot I have at least 90% equity in with a pot-bet. Ignoring implied odds, 6 into 15 is plenty to make it incorrect for someone to chase a 4 outter, especially since I can fill. I thought perhaps a small bet would encourange one pair in to chase his second pair, or letting an ace-chaser tag alog. I was also hoping the small bet would look weak and induce a raise.

[pdubz]

[ QUOTE ]
I was also hoping the small bet would look weak and induce a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you got it. Call the turn and call the river as mentioned above. And yes the stack sizes are exactly why you need to call instead of moving in.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you bet 6 into 15 on the flop?

Well, here was my very questionable thought process: I have top set heads-up on a nearly drawless boards (only gutshots possible); I don't want to blow him off a pot I have at least 90% equity in with a pot-bet. Ignoring implied odds, 6 into 15 is plenty to make it incorrect for someone to chase a 4 outter, especially since I can fill. I thought perhaps a small bet would encourange one pair in to chase his second pair, or letting an ace-chaser tag alog. I was also hoping the small bet would look weak and induce a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since I really don't see you folding to anybody who hits a gutshot, then you have to make sure you have killed their implied odds, as well. Also, there is the possibility of QJs, which provides for an open-ended draw, and possibly backdoor flush possibiity, too. You want to shut them out, as well, or, at least, make it so they are making a mistake to call, even with implied odds. Since you said you were trying to make an ace-chaser feel priced in, that means you are prepared to go pretty deep if an ace turns. However, if he hold QJ, the ace is big trouble for you.

Anyway, suppose I were BB, I held AQ, and I saw your hand in your mirrored specs. I would call your flop bet in a heartbeat. I have 4 outs of 45 cards, for 11-to-1 longshot. But you have only charged me $6 and I stand to gain way more than $66 if I catch it, even if you do get away shy of all in. Heck, the pot is already $21. If you think the least you could get away from a straight for is, say, $100, then you should have bet $10, at least.

If you should decide now that you are going to go all in if a Q or J hits on the turn (and the opponent is willing to oblige), then you should be betting $20-ish now. You don't have to cover the full 11-to-1 because you still have outs if he makes his straight.

In fact, he doesn't know you have a hand you will have trouble getting away from -- he will be putting you on AK right now, probably. So he won't really imagine that he can do any better than, say, $100 if he hits his gutshot. So he shouldn't be willing to call any more than $10. Anyway, food for thought. I'm not sure where I end up in all this, but I think $10 is about the right bet on the flop, and $6 is just too low.

Once you have reached the turn, I can't see myself folding the top set here, unless he shows me his AQ. But I agree, with your tiny bet on the flop, you can't really afford to discount the gutshot completely, so you should just call the turn and hope the board pairs.

[ddubois]

Zag, good post. Most of what you said I sort of knew, at least, after the fact I grudgingly knew. I just wanted to hear it from objective bystander who doesn't know the results. (I didn't even think about QJs though. Oops.)

re-raising the turn will get you into trouble
what grifter said
stack sizes are exactly why you need to call instead of moving in
so you should just call the turn and hope the board pairs

Results: So of course I re-raised, he pushed, and I handed over another $200. Go me. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I justified my all-in call by thinking he would push 55/TT/JJ in addition to AQ, and that I could still fill, giving me roughly 50% pot equity according to pokerstove (or more if he would play JT/KJs/AA/AsTs this way).

I'm not sure that all-in call analysis is awful, but it never should have happened, and wouldn't have if I had bet 2/3rds pot on flop or just called the check-raise.

[gergery]

I raise to $80 and am willing to get all the money in. I want to raise enough that the hands that are drawing but behind are making a mistake to call with. Since:

Hands he might have that you beat: JJ, TT, 44, QJ, JT, ATs, also possible but less likely QQ, AK, KQ, KJ, KT, A4s.

Hands he might have that beat you: AQ. The set of hands you are ahead of is dealt about 50% more often than the set your are behind to. Add in a few times he is bluffing since you are betting weak and you are way ahead. And even if you arent’, then you are 3:1 to improve.

Since the sets will come anyway, bet so that the OESD and Flush draws will call and be making a mistake. They have 8 outs, so they’ll hit 1 in 6, and can win your stack up to his stacksize, which is $250. $250/6 is $42 and I want at least a mistake from him, so I want him having to call at least $50 here. So $50+30=$80. So that’s my raise.

--Greg

-- OK, I just read BK and Grifter’s comments. Why don’t you guys reraise since odds are you are ahead here?

[gergery]

So Zag, what do you do if the board doesn’t pair, and he bets out strongly – how big a bet will you call?

As an aside, what hand would it be correct for his opponent to minraise to $30 with on the turn – it seems like any strong hand should have gone thru your thought process and raised more. So maybe that mistake on his part if he has the straight makes your flat call a better play. Hmm.

--Greg

[Jonny]

ddobious, I encountered almost the EXACT same situation you did. Here is how it went.

Paradise NL200. I have around 250, villian has me covered. Im in a blind with KK. UTG raises to 5 or so. I reraise to ~15. 5 to the flop for 15 bucks each. So the pot is around 75 bucks or so roughly.

Flop is K73r. I lead out for 10 bucks (thinking, I have the pure nuts right now, and there are no draws to speak of), hoping to be raised by the case K or a lower set. Only the CO calls.

Heads up on the Turn its a 9, completing rainbow.
check, check (Now I did this so he would hit 2 pr. or lower set...)

River is a J. I lead out for 100 into a 100 pot. He pushes in for 100 more, I insta call, never considering QTo as a possible hand to call a raise and reraise with PF. I put him on two pair, and paid the price big. Lost a 550 pot. But I don't think I necessaily played it wrong, considering I was literally a 95% favorite on teh flop...

[TheGrifter]

Gergery,

The reason you don't want to reopen the betting on the turn is a direct correlation of the stack sizes. There is no reason to stack off here when QJ and AQ are very likely hands given the minimum raise on the turn. He may have flopped a set but there are only two hands with which he might have done so and the flush draw is unlikely.

He's shown a lot of strength in min. raising you, raising is neg EV here in my opinion since he is likely not going to stack off when so deep with 1 pair and you can probably take all his money if the board pairs on the river (whether he was on a set or a straight).

Even with a strong holding it is sometimes correct to slow down when there's a good chance you are beat.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
So Zag, what do you do if the board doesn’t pair, and he bets out strongly – how big a bet will you call?

As an aside, what hand would it be correct for his opponent to minraise to $30 with on the turn – it seems like any strong hand should have gone thru your thought process and raised more. So maybe that mistake on his part if he has the straight makes your flat call a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tough question. I still am doubting that he has AQ, so I would call a fair bet. The pot will be $85 or so, entering the river after I just call the check-raise. Assuming the river is a blank (not A, K, Q, J, T, 9, 4, spade), I'll call a pot-sized bet, or even a little over. Notice how he did have implied odds to call with the gutshot -- he has profited $115 since hitting it, for his $6 call on the flop. 19-to-1 payoff. Even discounting for the times the board pairs, he had his odds.

However, if I had been playing it from the beginning, it would have gone like this:

Flop (pot is $15), he checks, I bet $12, he calls (or not, depending on his math skills).

Turn (pot is $33), he checks, I bet $25, he raises to $50, I call.

River (pot is $130). I'll call up to $125, let's say. His profit is $175, for his $12 calll, or 14.5-to-1 payoff, where he was 11-to-1 to hit. If we discount for the 10 outs that I had on the river, it is a mighty close call.

Furthermore, he didn't know that I had top set and would have such trouble getting away from the hand (Obviously: He would have bet more on the turn if he did know it.) so he can't count on making a full pot sized bet here on the end. He will probably make a milking bet of $50 or $75, which means his total profit is $100 to $125, less than 10.5-to-1 on his $12 call on the flop. With the discount you have to make for me filling up, he clearly was making a mistake to call it.

To answer your aside. I think that the answer is no hand whatsoever. I never minraise because I don't think it is ever correct. OK, I'll take it back, I might minraise if I have flopped top quads (QQ on a flop of QQJ) and someone has bet into me, but I would probably just call. I might also minraise in specifically the case where I know from past observance that the opponent views a min raise the way a bull views a red cape. I have to KNOW that he will reraise me, and I plan to put him all in.

Since the opponent could be looking at 10 outs (and, in fact, was), the minraise was terrible. He should have bet enough that a set is making a mistake to call. In fact, there are opponents against whom that minraise would tell me beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has the nuts, and I would only call the turn and fold the river. (Not many, but they do exist.)