UB hand we are all dogs?

1/2 PL at Ultimatebet.


I hold 64 different suits. 2 other players on the flop, one holds Ac Xc, other holds Kc Qc.

Flop is 3c 4c 5s .We all have roughly $250 and we get it all in. I have a flush draw and 4 overcards against me; so I am slightly a dog to win the hand right? The flush draws are dogs too. But I am getting 2-1 on my money so the play is correct for me, even though I am a dog to win. Is my reasoning correct?

I take it this is hypothetical, right?


I don't know if you'd be the dog here to win the hand or not. I don't have time to do all the math but I think you might be the favorite or at worst, a slight dog.


You have the only pair plus an open ender. Anything between a 2 and a 7, as long as it's not a club improves your hand (that's 15 cards). 19 cards help your opponents, so there are 9 left that are blanks which actually help you. So you have 24 cards that help. And if your opponents get help on the turn (not a club), your outs for the straight, a 4 or a 6 (not clubs) are still good.


Now for your statement:

"But I am getting 2-1 on my money so the play is correct for me, even though I am a dog to win. Is my reasoning correct"?


I don't see how you could know you weren't up against overpairs, A5c; a set or a flopped straight?


KC50

KC thanx for the reply.

Slight correction, I think I had 45 and the flop was 246.

It was a real hand. I am a dog though because if they get a club, none of my 24 outs are any good. I think if it wasn't for the str8 draw I'd be a dog against even one of them.


In answer to your question, I was not worried about overpairs, they wouldn't risk all that money against a possible flopped str8. Same probably goes for trips. Anyway, I still have my str8 draw and pair.

Flopped str8 needs a 35, unlikely as there was a preflop raise from one of them, and they weren't playing like they would make/call the raise with those cards.

A5c was the danger hand, that is true, but I went with it.

Also, the stacks were not quite even, the KQc had about $100 less than us, so I had that in sidepot headup against the Axc.

A club came and the player won a $700 pot.

Using a simulator with 5h4d against Ac9c and KcQc on a 6s4c2c.


54 wins 40%

A9 wins 44%

KQ wins 16%


Ken Poklitar

ohKanada@hotmail.com

With your correction...yes you are a big dog with second high pair and a gutter.


If you don't mind me asking, how did you get in the situation where you got all-in on the flop anyway? Did you limp from the BB and semi-bluff check-raise the flop, hoping to win it right there, then someone came back over you? If that's what happened, how did you justify your calling all-in?


KC50

I guess Ken proved you were second favorite by a large margin and not far behind the favorite. I thought were were much further behind.


I now see you did say there was a preflop raise. I don't understand calling a preflop raise with 45o and still don't understand how you discounted an overpair OTF.


KC50

Kevin, I recall you did have 64 and the open ender draw. You raised ATF and mph (Ac9c) put you all-in. With a computer, we could debate the exact odds, etc. I think, considering the action and your hand/position that you did good. You definitely read the other players correctly and had the balls to bet your hand. mph was luckier than you in that hand (as he readily admitted after the hand). Good action last night!

3dog that's right my mistake again. Must have been 346 flop to my 45 giving me openender. It was good action.


KC, I called the raise preflop because i thought the stacks were deep enough for me to hit...

do not know if I'm right.

I didn't feel they had overpairs. That time i was right, often I'm wrong lol.

Okay,

Maybe I'm too much of a caller to pass middle pair and str8 draw and I'm just trying to justify it to myself lol.

But I AM interested from those out there more mathematically gifted than me , who was the favourite or were we all dogs?

final hands:

me 45 player(a)kc qc player(b) Ac 9c

flop 3c 4c 6s

903 boards. 12 are ties. You win 392 of them. I win 382 of them. KcQc wins 117 of them.

I thought with a pair and an open ender you were ahead. Good read and good play even though you didn't win this time!


KC50