AK flops the nuts

[MicroBob]

I'm still working on how to maximize profit.
Obviously there are plenty of hands out there that can catch up to me but I think it's in my best interest to wait on this one....but I suspect many will disagree and I would be interested to hear arguments.


5/10 online - loose-passive, new to table but expecting a couple of super-idiots

Hero is MP2 with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) calls, Hero re-raises, CO folds, button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls


Flop - 5 players, 15.2 SB

Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif


BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls


Turn - 5 players, 10.1BB

8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 re-raises, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG+2 calls


River - 3 players, 22.2BB

BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+2 calls


3 players for a 28 BB pot

[edthayer]

I'd raise the flop because of the two diamonds.

[Rubeskies]

What is the river card?

[MicroBob]

whoops....sorry

river is 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif putting a straight on the board.



I thought about raising on the flop because of the two diamonds on the boards....but anyone with a flush-draw should have been staying in anyway, right?? Same thing for anybody playing trips or 2-pair.
By raising I'm only going to lose players who are drawing almost completely dead and on a board like this I think there's a chance some goof-balls could decide to stay in with bottom-pair (for example).

This was my thinking....but I'm not confident that it is correct.

[edthayer]

Hopefully anyone with a straight or flush draw, or two-pair will 3-bet it when you raise on the flop, right?

[Ed Miller]

I thought about raising on the flop because of the two diamonds on the boards....but anyone with a flush-draw should have been staying in anyway, right?? Same thing for anybody playing trips or 2-pair.

Despite the large size of the pot, you shouldn't be concerned with protecting your hand. Your primary goal should be to do whatever you can to get as much money in the pot as possible.

[MicroBob]

Does raising the flop accomplish that?

Forcing some mostly-dead hands to try to call 2-cold AND inducing a situation where everyone checks to the raiser on the turn still felt icky to me.

I wasn't concerned with protecting my hand...I was debating if I could get the most out of this by waiting for the turn to raise....but I honestly don't know.

There is a tendency among some players to assume the raiser has AK (which was also mentioned in the Skykovsky article interestingly enough) and in this case I guess I wanted to wait before screaming "I've got AK".

sigh...i don't know. I feel very fishy.

[Danenania]

Which do you think gets more money in Ed? This seems like a situation where waiting until the turn to raise could potentially lose you a lot of customers who would be happy to pay on the flop.

[Ed Miller]

sigh...i don't know. I feel very fishy.

I would typically raise the flop, since waiting for the turn is a likely action killer. The guy betting into you is spoiling for a fight. I'd give the man what he wants. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Having said that, I wouldn't go around feeling fishy for playing the way you did. In the long-term it doesn't matter that much how you play hands like this one. It matters some, so don't ignore it... but don't feel dumb for playing it one way or the other.

[Trix]

I think you will get more action by raising the flop.

[MicroBob]

Thanks Ed.
It has occured to me that the negative-EV on 'mixing it up' on hands like this isn't huge. Afterall, we don't KNOW who is likely to stay in with garbage for one bet and who is likely to leave for 2 bets, etc.

And the positive EV you get from analyzing your hands and just TRYING to max your value on each hand mostly makes up for it.

I think that as long as one thinks about these types of things and gets it mostly right most of the time you should be decently profitable.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you will get more action by raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah...that's why I posted the hand.
I had my reasons for doing it the way I did but it was clear to me that if I posted this hand here I would get a bunch of people telling me that is definitely higher EV to just play it as fast as you can get away with.

This has been a leak of mine I think....just trying to get too cute when i should be speeding up.
Also...playing too straight-forward and fast when there is an opportunity to pull off a trickier play.

[MicroBob]

You're going to love this:


BB has 5h Jc
UTG+2 has 5d 9d


No, I'm not kidding.

[edthayer]

There are a lot of turn cards you don't want to see:

Aces, Kings, and especially diamonds. Not to mention the board pairing.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a lot of turn cards you don't want to see:

Aces, Kings, and especially diamonds. Not to mention the board pairing.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are talking about hand protection on the flop, kings and diamond draws aren't folding anyway. I doubt it's worth a raise if the only purpose is to shut out singleton aces.