Key Hand #4: Big Decision ($3 rebuy) $250,0000 Satellite

[Desdia72]

ok, so it's more than a one or two table tourney but i wanted to submit the hand for analysis anyway. i'm playing under my girlfriend's username (ReighnStorm), blind levels 600/1200 with 75 ante. i'm dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in mid to late position. the BB player is an up and down LAG player and the limper is an OK player who had'nt been in too many hands since i got to the table. i raise 3XBB to 3600 not looking to see anyone limp at this stage and see a cheap flop. everyone folds to the limper who calls the extra 2400. although i miss the flop, i do catch a board with straight possibilities that compliments my Jack (a 10 completes) plus two spades. ok villian then bets 3600 into a pot of 9675, which i thought was pretty small. i felt the price was small enough to invest so i did. the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif then hits on the turn giving me top pair with a good kicker and one card to the flush. ok villian then bets all-in into a pot of 16875. DAMN! i whiff a foul smell up through my nostils. CRAP! i am now not so confident in my TP/GK with one card to a flush. if the guy has A Ko with the King being a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, i'm in a world of hurt. if ok villian already has a flush, i'll need a spade on the river (preferably the King) to win. comments please and what's your call. results later.

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PokerStars Game #758106553: Tournament #2876721, Hold'em No Limit - Level XI
(600/1200) - 2004/10/10 - 02:52:38 (ET)
Table '2876721 59' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: WOstriker (39774 in chips)
Seat 2: LarryBh (116680 in chips)
Seat 3: digidog (32060 in chips)
Seat 4: SlickGoody (9880 in chips)
Seat 5: CSSVIVOR (53209 in chips)
Seat 6: JoeKewl (14187 in chips)
Seat 7: ReighnStorm (59572 in chips)
Seat 8: 420 ToKeNs (16235 in chips)
Seat 9: zonechef (69190 in chips)
WOstriker: posts the ante 75
LarryBh: posts the ante 75
digidog: posts the ante 75
SlickGoody: posts the ante 75
CSSVIVOR: posts the ante 75
JoeKewl: posts the ante 75
ReighnStorm: posts the ante 75
420 ToKeNs: posts the ante 75
zonechef: posts the ante 75
LarryBh: posts small blind 600
digidog: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ReighnStorm [Ah Js]
SlickGoody: folds
CSSVIVOR: calls 1200
JoeKewl: folds
ReighnStorm: raises 2400 to 3600
420 ToKeNs: folds
zonechef: folds
WOstriker: folds
LarryBh: folds
digidog: folds
CSSVIVOR: calls 2400
*** FLOP *** [Qs 8d 9s]
CSSVIVOR: bets 3600
ReighnStorm: calls 3600
*** TURN *** [Qs 8d 9s] [As]
CSSVIVOR: bets 45934 and is all-in

[cocarondelle]

hey desdia,

I believe a queen king would limp from ep (with the king being a spade)and would also play this way after the flop with top pair and good kicker. So, when another spade hit the turn he pushed all in knowing a spade on the river would have given him the nut flush. He could have put you on an ace queen and you would have him outkicked after the flop so the push all in could be kind of a semi-bluff. Hoping he could take down the pot right there in case the spade did not come up for him.

If he has been tight the whole game, I could understand him limping becuae if he raised most everyone would fold. He could have had a hand that he felt could handle a few players, like Ace King. Betting on the flop with two overcards is understandable and that ace just made him all trigger happy and he decided to push all in. but that doesn't really make sense because he must know he is way ahead in the hand when he made tp/tk and nut flush draw. He should be trying to trap you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I just dont see any possibility that the villian could have made the flush already. He wouldnt push all in like that, he'd want to build the pot up a bit.

Pocket pairs could also be a possiblity, but not quite as high. Generally most people slow play a set, but with a possible flush draw he pushed it a bit to see where you were at. When you just called he might have sensed that you haven't made your hand yet and pushed all in on the turn. Heres the problem i have with this scenario. Somebody calling me with two suits shows that they could be on a drawing hand and the turn spade should scare someone off. I would still bet out, and if i got re raised i would fold, knowing i am most likely beat. But i would never push all in with a possible flush on the board, the risk is just too high.) I just cant believe he would push all in when you could have made your flush. So i would have a hard time seeing him made a set on the flop.

I'd put him on QK (spade).

So after all this rambling heres what i do: fold. Too many hands beat me here. Maybe i'm too tight, but i like my chipstack and know it wouldn't be worth pushing all in with such a marginal hand.

Did i get right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif my first post analyzing a hand. hope i did ok. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Desdia72]

King Queenish-type hand with the King possibly being a /images/graemlins/spade.gif? what are some other hands you put an opponent on who limped and then called a raise?

something told me that the turn /images/graemlins/spade.gif, although an Ace, must've been a scare card for him. it's possible he may have thought it was a scare card for me too. i felt his all-in bet on the turn was going overboard, a bet saying, "i'm looking to win the pot right now!"

[cocarondelle]

I made a mistake thinking he had ace king. He wouldn't try to trap you becuase he couldn't hav eknown that you didn't have something like ace queen, which would make you two pair. So if that was the case he wouldve been more cautious about that ace, and certainly wouldn't move all in here. there would be a possible two pair and a flush on the board. like i said too risky.

(Am i over analyzing? let me know if i am,) hehe /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
I made a mistake thinking he had ace king. He wouldn't try to trap you becuase he couldn't hav eknown that you didn't have something like ace queen, which would make you two pair. So if that was the case he wouldve been more cautious about that ace, and certainly wouldn't move all in here. there would be a possible two pair and a flush on the board. like i said too risky.

(Am i over analyzing? let me know if i am,) hehe /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, you're doing fine. trust me, the same thoughts were going through my mind as i played the hand.

[Desdia72]

i decided to call the all-in.

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ReighnStorm: calls 45934
*** RIVER *** [Qs 8d 9s As] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CSSVIVOR: shows [Qc Ac] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
ReighnStorm: shows [Ah Js] (a flush, Ace high)
ReighnStorm collected 108743 from pot
digidog said, "ouch"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 108743 | Rake 0
Board [Qs 8d 9s As 6s]
Seat 1: WOstriker (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: LarryBh (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: digidog (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: SlickGoody folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: CSSVIVOR showed [Qc Ac] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 6: JoeKewl folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: ReighnStorm showed [Ah Js] and won (108743) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: 420 ToKeNs folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: zonechef folded before Flop (didn't bet)

needless to say, i went on to win my 2nd ever entry via satellite into the $200 + $15 $250,000 Guaranteed event.