JJ flops top set, capped 3-ways on the flop; bet or checkraise turn?

[bdk3clash]

Man, not coming up with goofy titles is lame, but I guess everyone wants to be all informative and [censored] now. Oh well.

Anyway, this took place last week but I think it provided a moderately interesting turn decision. Live 4-8 at the Club That Shall Not Be Named in NYC.

I'm in EP and raise J/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, and my tight table image bites me in the ass as I only get coldcalled by 3 players. The BB also calls. 5 of us to the flop for 5 BBs.

The first EP coldcaller is competent postflop, too loose preflop. She's certainly reasonable on the latter streets and isn't particularly aggressive. Her flop play is more indicative of a made hand than a draw. (For those who play there, it's manager (?) Susan.)

Other coldcaller is loose preflop and loose postflop and mostly passive. He could literally be coldcalling the flop with a one-card gutshot, or better.

Flop comes J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, EP coldcaller raises, one of the coldcallers folds, LP coldcaller coldcalls, I 3-bet, EP coldcallers caps, LP coldcaller coldcalls yet again, I call.

3 of us to the turn for 11 BBs. Turn is:

[J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif] K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Bet out or checkraise the turn? Why?

My thoughts and the rest of the action later.

[spamuell]

I'd bet. If LP cold-caller is as bad as you say and has something to call the flop with, he will be seeing the river for two bets if he's willing to see it for one bet and I think you're far more likely to get three bets in on the turn through betting out than you would be to get four bets in check-raising. And you might get three bets [EDIT: I meant four not three here] in through betting out as well, as long as the EP cold-caller is doing the capping then this is very good.

[Entity]

If you checkraise the turn (and she has a made hand), and she's decent postflop, would she be likely to realize she's behind and slow down, or will she continue to be aggressive?

I'd probably bet this, but I'm not convinced that it's the right play.

Rob

[Red_Eye_Jedi]

Bet it. I wouldnt risk giving a free card with a probable straight draw, and with the turn, a not as probable, but still possible against loose opposition, flush draw.

[Noodles]

what if you bet the turn and the coldcaller raises? would it be a fold or call down to the riv situation?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
what if you bet the turn and the coldcaller raises? would it be a fold or call down to the riv situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
There's absolutely no way you can fold this with a set and 10 outs to fill up or better.

Rob

[gamblore99]

checkraise. It looks like she has a set, and given your read of passive, she may get scared when you lead out the turn after she capped the flop. go for checkraise and let her bet which she most likely will as you say she only bets with made hands. If callstation wakes up and raises here I think I would slowdown and just call.

[sfer]

Bet. The K could slow her down since she probably has an underset and you look like you have an overpair or a set from the flop action. If the turn had blanked I'm more inclined to check intending to raise, but only if you say, "I check, don't bet, I will check and raise!"

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what if you bet the turn and the coldcaller raises? would it be a fold or call down to the riv situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
There's absolutely no way you can fold this with a set and 10 outs to fill up or better.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, if either coldcaller raises (EP or LP) I'm going to 3-bet and play poker. I'm only reasonably behind to AQ or Q9 (either probably would have 3-bet preflop with KK), and either could have much, much worse to 3-bet there. EP almost certainly doesn't have AQ or Q9 as there's just no chance she would have played the flop so aggressive, and LP could have much, much worse to raise the turn, like KQ or AK.

Even if LP had a straight I'm not in such bad shape considering that the EP coldcaller probably isn't folding, even for two more on the turn, with TT or TJ. AJ she'd probably muck at this point, but I doubt she would have capped the flop with TPTK given how she plays and her perception of what I could have.

Perhaps the initial read I provided didn't accurately account for the LP coldcaller's level of donkeyness, or EP's general reasonableness after the flop.

Folding at any point if either coldcaller raises is just silly.

EDIT: EP coldcaller or LP coldcaller? Also, I have no idea why I had references to getting checkraised. My bad.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what if you bet the turn and the coldcaller raises? would it be a fold or call down to the riv situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
There's absolutely no way you can fold this with a set and 10 outs to fill up or better.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, if EP coldcaller check-raises I'm going to 3-bet and play poker. I'm only reasonably behind to AQ or Q9 (surely he would have 3-bet preflop with KK), and he could have much, much worse to 3-bet there, like KQ or AK. Even if he had a straight I'm not in such bad shape considering that the EP coldcaller probably isn't folding, even for two more on the turn, with TT or TJ. AJ she'd probably muck at this point, but I doubt she would have capped the flop with TPTK.

Perhaps the initial read I provided didn't accurately account for the LP coldcaller's level of donkeyness.

Folding at any point if the LP coldcaller checkraises is just silly.

[/ QUOTE ]
You were mainly responding to the guy I was responding to, and not me, right? I fold this approximately once in . . . well . . . never. If they checkraise, you 3-bet.

Rob

[bdk3clash]

Yeah--I've since edited my response for clarity and to correct a few things, but I was responding to Noodles asking whether I should call down or fold if I get raised. My answer, of course, is neither--3-bizzle that shizzle.

[bdk3clash]

I think the only way I fold this turn is if one of my opponents shows me KK, and even then I count the size of the pot and think for a few seconds.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, if either coldcaller raises (EP or LP) I'm going to 3-bet and play poker. I'm only reasonably behind to AQ or Q9 (either probably would have 3-bet preflop with KK), and either could have much, much worse to 3-bet there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm obviously not saying you're wrong about this as you've played with them, but I am interested to know which hands the LP cold-caller would 3-bet the turn with here. This is just because I want to know what you mean by "loose and mostly passive". Two pair or better?

[Noodles]

ooops i read the board wrong thought there was 3 hearts out on the turn,my bad! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
ooops i read the board wrong thought there was 3 hearts out on the turn,my bad! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you fold the turn with a boat draw, even if you think you're behind on a 3-/images/graemlins/heart.gif board?

[SA125]

Bet and hope it's raised again.

[bdk3clash]

I bet the turn, EP called, LP called.

I bet a blank-ish river, EP called, LP called. I showed JJ, EP flashed JT and mucked, LP mucked.

At the time I thought I might have miffed an easy turn checkraise, but the consensus seems to be to bet out the turn, even though EP did indeed cap the flop. I think the moderately scary turn card (for her) might tip this to a bet out, since she might think I'm 50/50 to have AA/KK, or realize I had her crushed on the flop with JJ. I dunno about this one, but when in doubt I didn't want to risk this one getting checked through for whatever reason.