JJ on the Bubble

[davidross]

Still not sure if there is a "right" way to play this.

$100 NL on PArty. 42 left out of 400, 40 get paid. I have a way above average stack at 9700, Blinds were 300/600. UTG is the only guy who has me covered with around 20K raises to 1200. I have JJ in LP and I call. Everyone else gets out of our way. Flop is 832, he bets 3K and I call. Turn is a 9 and he bets enough to put me all in. I still have 5K and will cash comfortably if I fold, but I call anyway. HE has AA and I'm out in 42nd. Yuck.

Anyone bail on this and when??

[Che]

Isn't this flop a fold/push decision?

I don't like the smooth call, but you're way more experienced than me so I may be missing something.

BTW I busted 2 from the money a month or two ago with QQ v AA in almost identical fashion. Makes you sick to your stomach doesn't it? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Later,
Che

[JARID]

David,

Whats your read on UTG? Is he tricky, would he fire away like that with AK?

The only thing he could logically have that you beat here would be TT. Most would pull up on the turn with a missed AK/AQ after you call his EP raise and flop bet.

I laydown on the turn(on one of my better days /images/graemlins/tongue.gif). Did you consider a raise at any point?

-Jarid

[davidross]

I don't think so. With his stack I figure he bets that same thing with AK or AA, but Once I call I think I'm commited to folding if he gets teh turn, which I failed to do. I've told him I have something and that will usually slow down AK. When he bets again he almost surely has me (Unless he has TT) and I think I have to fold then. If I'm going to call the turn bet then I agree I need to push in on the flop.

I'm wondering if I should have raised pre-flop willing to fold to a big move.

[MrX]

this situation has come up often for me lately, that is is where I have a premium hand, usually 99, TT, JJ, but I sense an overpair by the initial raiser.

My decision lately has been to decide before I call or reraise preflop if I think my hand is good on a rag flop. If my answer is no (based on any read possible), then I decide if the stack sizes allow me to play the hand for set value and if they do then I call preflop and play for a set. If the answer is no to both questions then I try to fold it (a scenario that seems to rarely occur though).


Of course this is easy in my head but hard to implement. This also becomes much harder when my hand is JJ as opposed to 99.

In the same 100+9 yesterday I folded TT preflop in a similar position just into the $ with about 30 left in a spot with very similar chip stack ratios to your example when the leader made a healthy raise UTG. I did not have the implied odds for a set and I felt the chance of him having an overpair based on his play I observed was too high. Of course I did not feel to great about it and still wonder if it was correct. Tough question.

MrX

[Punker]

I advise avoiding running into AA...a lesson I should have told you before the end of the Super Saturday /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering if I should have raised pre-flop willing to fold to a big move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am wondering if I should have done that too. I think in your case if you think he will only reraise all in preflop with QQ KK AA, then yes do it, if your plan is to fold to the reraise that is.

My problem in these hands too is that when you smooth call preflop, the enemy always seems to bet the flop, even if he missed, thus making the postflop play very difficult.

In your case I think a reraise preflop is a good idea.

MrX

[davidross]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Punker]

The funny part is I was just about to PM you to see if you would sell a piece so I could take more interest in the results /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Jett Rink]

Tough way to lose first off. I know people like Daniel Negreanu like to build their stacks around bubble time. This could be what AA had in mind. For all you know he could have 2-7. Therefore , maybe a re-raise and fold when he comes back is proper.

Saying that though is one thing and not likely what I do. My opinion is far too conservative for the Negreanus of the poker world. I still have much to learn and improve on but my opinion is i love JJ if I'm first into the pot with a raise. On the bubble and the raiser can knock me out, I either fold or see flop and fold without the set.

Working hard to get that close just kills me. So that is my two cents.

[fnord_too]

YUK! That's a nasty situation.

A lot of questions here:

Is the UTG mini raise out of character?
Has UTG displayed any maniacle tendencies post flop?
Is UTG someone who is overly aggressive pre-flop?
Is UTG capable of flat calling with AA or KK pre-flop?

If I know none of these things, I think I raise to 3600 pre flop and fold to a push.

Things get a lot trickier if UTG is capable of pushing with marginal holdings pre or post flop, then you get in a situation where you have to commit you stack with no real idea of where you are. In that case flat calling pre flop is better I think.

If UTG is really savy, he will call your reraise since he knows you have a big pair or AK, and he will be able to extract more from you post flop with little risk. (If he is savy he probably will have picked up on the fact that you are not just some schmoe who is already committed to the hand by virtue of your reraise, assuming you have played together for any amount of time).

That is a tricky situation all around. I think raising and folding to a reraise pre flop is best. Not many people on party are going to fail to push AA or KK or even QQ if you reraise them (against ~99% of the people I'm pushing with AA or KK in that spot). Of course they will push AK, too, but I personally don't mind passing on a race with the only guy who can bust me here.

[patrick dicaprio]

this is difficult to answer without info on your opponent. But two things stick out. One is that if you call a PF raise here he has to know you have a good hand, and he is putting you on a big pair or AK. on the flop he might very well take a shot with AK and he made a pot size bet. calling here by you is marginal at best. since you are essentially hoping (praying?) he has AK or TT. Two, once he bets the turn it should be an auto fold. He almost certainly wouldnt put you all in with a missed AK or TT here unless he is a bad player or is very aggressive. but he is taking a big chunk outof his stack if he is making this move with AK and he has no incentive to do so. "Should" being the key word, since it is always easier to analyze hands like this outside the heat of battle.

Pat

[ReDeYES88]

In theory, I think that the 3000 that you were willing to spend on the flop call would have been much better spent on a preflop raise to help define your opponents hand. If I get the sense that he is holding two overcards or a bigger pair, I think I let this go so close to the money. Yes, you have a slim advantage w/JJ to two overs, but I'm not sure I want to push this thin an edge at this point in the tourney.

In reality, I push the three undercard flop and get busted, too. Tough one.

__________________________________________________ __________
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ReD