Have I gone completely mad? KJs hand

[Ian J]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets $31.25 (All-In)</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (20.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players, 1 all-in)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB has 8s Jh (high card, king).
BB has 3h 9c (one pair, nines).
UTG+2 has 4d As (one pair, fours).
Hero has Jc Kc (one pair, kings).
MP2 has Ad Ts (high card, ace).
MP3 has 9h Qd (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 20.25 BB. </font>

[DyessMan89]

You played that hand about as bad as you can play it. I wouldnt have called the raises pre-flop with that, i wouldnt have raised on the flop, i wouldnt have bet on the turn, and i wouldnt have checked on the river. Just got very lucky.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
You played that hand about as bad as you can play it. I wouldnt have called the raises pre-flop with that, i wouldnt have raised on the flop, i wouldnt have bet on the turn, and i wouldnt have checked on the river. Just got very lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't call the raise? Six people called in front of the hero and he's getting 15:1 to put in another bet. This is an easy call. The rest of the hand looks pretty silly.

SpaceAce

[chesspain]

I'm just a low limit fish, but I'm confused about the flop raise, given that you only have three weak draws (overcards, backdoor str8, backdoor flush) as well as what is likely a dominating hand to your immediate left.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
as well as what is likely a dominating hand to your immediate left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he think he's getting AK to fold or something...

[Lawrence Ng]

What a fantastic game you are in. Look at the crap they are calling with.

[Ian J]

Well, this certainly wasn't my typical line. I'll try to go through my thought processes on each street. Am I thinking fuzzy here?

Preflop: Standard.

Flop: This is the oddest part of the hand. The few that responded hated the flop raise, I think it's close. For one, I'm definitely not folding on this flop unless it's 2 cold to me. When it comes to me for one bet, I can let hands behind me like AK, AJ, and KQ call one bet and still have me dominated. Or, if I raise I may get someone behind me to fold one of those hands (specifically the PF raiser), opening up some outs for yours truly. So, I raised.

On the turn, I pick up what I would approximate to be about a 10 outer. 9 for the flush and we'll just say 1 for the overcards because one or the other (or both) may be tied up. It's checked to me and I decide to bet to try to convince the guy behind me, who I believe has me dominated, that he needs to fold. It doesn't work and I've now got him squarely on AK or possibly 99-TT.

River: Well, there's the King I sort of wanted. The action comes to me and I think it's close between a check and a bet. I decided to check because I wasn't looking to fold and didn't really want to put 2 bets in with my hand. So, that crazy hand now has a bit of explanation.

In big pots like this one, I try to do whatever is necessary to increase my chance of winning the pot. This is the reason for this somewhat oddball play of mine. Have I gone mad?

[LarsVegas]

No you haven't gone completely mad. I like you reasoning. The flop is close. You are rarely playing more than 3 outs and a backdoorflush here, and sometimes less (even the backdoorflush has no guarantee of holding up).

So I believe the flop is very close between folding, calling and raising. Neither alternative would be particularly insane.

Sure looked like a great game though.

lars

[Kenrick]

Most of it looks like garbage to me. Call the preflop raise, no problem. Raising the flop with a king-high backdoor-nothing, I see no point. The turn and river are just lucky draws. If the river hadn't come, you can't even beat ace-high against five players. And then the king comes and two players check and then you check yourself with only one guy to go. Checking on the end isn't terrible, though.

[steveyz]

I'd play pretty much every street opposite of what you did. Raise pre-flop. Depending on the action, either raise or call the flop. Check call the turn, and bet the river.

[Bob S.]

Ian-

Why do I feel like if Mike L. had posted this hand everyone would be talking about how genious the play is??? As one poster already stated, the flop decision is very close...with calling probably being the least favorable. I'd have given stronger consideration to betting on the river with one player all in...you probably pick up an extra bet or two which would always be nice if you are beaten by the all-in player.

-Bob S.

[Charlie]

I like a limp preflop, and you have to call the raise since there is so much money already in the pot. On the flop it is either a raise or fold hoping to eliminate hands like KQ or AJ. Then you hit the best card on the turn which gives you a minimum of 9 outs to win the pot. Since the pot is so large you have to bet the turn maybe getting a chance to maybe steal a pot on the river if someone misses. I like the non bet on the river knowing you will get called by a better hand more than often. Maybe AK or AA. Perhaps even get raised on the river.

[DeeJ]

Nice pot. Nice game!

As it turned out, your jack, your king and any club were good by the river. I have to say I wouldn't raise the flop, but I would reraise the turn (can you? with that all-in?) as I have plenty of club outs which look very good.

I can't understand people check-calling the turn. It's a fantastic card which gives you 9 outs to the probable 2nd nuts.

Your overcards might also be good. Which they were /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldnt have called the raises pre-flop with that,

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you being sarcastic or honest?

What I'm curious about is, is a preflop raise by hero out of the question?

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
The action comes to me and I think it's close between a check and a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't a lot of worse hands call due to the pot size? Especially the way that table appeared to be playing?

Also, as I asked in another post in this thread. What about a raise preflop? Too early position?

[Saborion]

That makes two of us then. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't understand people check-calling the turn. It's a fantastic card which gives you 9 outs to the probable 2nd nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
If hero is behind, which I assume he is (I'm weak-tight, we all know that), and since we can assume that anyone with xJ or xK, where x = any of the board cards, won't fold for a bet on the turn given the pot size, a bet by hero is only good if hero will get enough callers for his given amount of outs.

With 7 outs hero need to get 6 callers to make the bet profitable. No good since there only are 5 opponents.
9 outs and hero need to get 5 callers, which may happen. I'd consider it very borderline though.
12 outs and hero only need to get 3 callers to make it profitable. Although will he have 12 outs often enough?

Now, hero only has 9 outs, there's a chance of him getting check-raised, which kind of would suck.

A bet on the turn is no good imo. Am I totally off track here?

[1800GAMBLER]

Raise preflop. call the flop. take the free card on the turn. bet the river.

[Trix]

Hi, I dont play this limit, but I would have raised preflop. If I get the button, then it rocks, if I dont, then I get to play a 5way+ pot for two bets with KJs which I like too.

I like the flop raise, since it may gain you two outs in a big pot.

I would check the turn though, as you need four callers to make it for value and the pot is too big to improve your chance of winning it with a bet at this point.

I think you have to bet the river aswell, MP2 is checking through AJ,AQ and other hands that still are missed but will bet with the ones with a King for sure. He will probably just call if you bet into him though, as there are 3 people behind and he dont want to get 3bet with a onepair hand. I dont think check-folding for one is an option.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't understand people check-calling the turn. It's a fantastic card which gives you 9 outs to the probable 2nd nuts.

Your overcards might also be good

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 6 players and one nearly all in. So you have no bluffing equity you probably aren't going to get overlay on your bet and if you do it's very small. There's a small-medium sized risk of with all the coldcallers one of 'em is going to pop you on the turn.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop raise, since it may gain you two outs in a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to put a value on 'may' to work out if it's worth investing an extra SB.

[Tosh]

I think preflop is certainly more of a raise than call. Call the flop and check the turn. Errr yeah and bet the river too.

[SoBeDude]

Amazing how there are so many different responses to your hand. So I'll throw in mine as well.

Depending on the table, I'd sometimes raise 3 limpers with KJs, but much of the time I think I'd call there. But...I think a case can be made for 3 betting preflop once SEVEN people are already in for 2 bets!

You can easily peel one on the flop with two overcards and your backdoors, as the pot is huge. A raise makes no sense to me.

On the turn, with this many players in the hand, I like the bet. you're getting a huge overlay and immediate pot equity on your 3-1 shot.

Check the river? ug. I have to bet here. You need to build a side pot in case the all-in player has a better hand, and several of your opponents are going to call you with hands you can beat because the pot is huge. A river bet is +EV.

-Scott

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting a huge overlay and immediate pot equity on your 3-1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]
3-1 shot? You assuming all 15 outs are clean? Isn't that maybe assuming a bit too much?

With 12 clean outs it's close. You need 3 callers, which I don't doubt you'll get. But if you add in a possible check-raise, you need more callers than that.

Am I wrong?

[SoBeDude]

9 clubs and 3 outs to either a J or a K (assuming one is good). so 12 outs out of 45 unseen cards. 12/33 is about 1/3 or a 2-1 shot.

But I was just looking at the flush draw alone.

Just looking at the 9 remaining clubs, we have 9/36 or 1/4, which is a 3-1 shot. Which is what I said.

The way the hand played out, I think it is very safe to assume you'll get AT LEAST 3 callers, and that you can expect more.

-Scott

[Saborion]

Either your or my math is wrong. I'd like to think it's yours, but I'll post my math and we'll see.
[ QUOTE ]
9 clubs and 3 outs to either a J or a K (assuming one is good). so 12 outs out of 45 unseen cards. 12/33 is about 1/3 or a 2-1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ust looking at the 9 remaining clubs, we have 9/36 or 1/4, which is a 3-1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless I'm mistaken, aren't you suppose to do (46-12)/12 = 2.83 (you used 45 btw) and (46-9)/9 = 4.1?

[SoBeDude]

Both of our math is correct, except I used 45 instead of 46.

I round 2.83 up to 3 to make the math easier. expressed as a fraction is 1/3. If I will make something one time in three that means once I hit my hand, and the remaining 2 times I miss. Expressed as a RATIO, its a 2-1 shot.

The flush draw IS 1/4 or a 3-1 shot. (one time out of 4 you make it, 3 times u miss).

-Scott

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]
but I would reraise the turn (can you? with that all-in?)

[/ QUOTE ]

The thought crossed my mind and I considered it, but it came back to me with only the call or fold buttons on, so I couldn't regardless. I probably wouldn't if I had the option though.

[Ian J]

Hi Scott,

The sole reason I raised was to possibly clean up some K or J outs. I'm not going anywhere on this flop in this sized pot, so I figured if I clear up 2 outs by making KQ or AJ (or both) fold, then I'm gaining a bunch of equity in this pot. Neither of those hands is folding the flop for one bet, so I tried to make them do it for 2.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Scott,

The sole reason I raised was to possibly clean up some K or J outs. I'm not going anywhere on this flop in this sized pot, so I figured if I clear up 2 outs by making KQ or AJ (or both) fold, then I'm gaining a bunch of equity in this pot. Neither of those hands is folding the flop for one bet, so I tried to make them do it for 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your thinking, but I think this is the wrong time for this play. When a table is this loose, you're just burning another small bet with little chance of it helping you win.

At the point of your raise. There are 21 SBs in the pot. AK and AJ are still going to call there getting 10-1 pot odds. So the only hand you're likely to push out is KQ, and would he really have raised preflop with KQ?

given the size of the pot, the number of opponents, and the looseness of their play, I think the raise is a mistake.

-Scott

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Both of our math is correct, except I used 45 instead of 46.

I round 2.83 up to 3 to make the math easier. expressed as a fraction is 1/3. If I will make something one time in three that means once I hit my hand, and the remaining 2 times I miss. Expressed as a RATIO, its a 2-1 shot.

The flush draw IS 1/4 or a 3-1 shot. (one time out of 4 you make it, 3 times u miss).

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott, your math is wrong.

12 outs. 46 cards remaining. You will win 12/46, or approx 1/4. This is 3 to 1, not 2 to 1.

9 outs. 46 cards remaining. You will win 9/46, or approx 1/5. This is 4 to 1, not 3 to 1.

Figuring as ratios:

12 outs. 34 bad cards. Odds are 34:12 or about 3:1 against (win one time for every 3 losses)
9 outs. 37 bad cards. Odds are 37:9 or about 4:1 against (win one time for every 4 losses)

[DeeJ]

Eh? At the turn there are already 14BB in the pot. Hero is putting in 1 bet, and will get callers or raises.

If Hero has to put only 1 bet in he has had an easy bet at the pot at 18 to 20:1 with a single bet, and wins say 20% of the time (flush) plus a little more for the overcards. Sounds like a good deal to me. Even if he has to put 2 bets in to a pot which is then 22-26BB, that's still something like 12:1 for a ~20% shot. Still very very goot. Even 3 or 4 bets must work out +EV too (apart from the increased risk you are up against Ax /images/graemlins/club.gif).

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't understand people check-calling the turn. It's a fantastic card which gives you 9 outs to the probable 2nd nuts.

Your overcards might also be good

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 6 players and one nearly all in. So you have no bluffing equity you probably aren't going to get overlay on your bet and if you do it's very small. There's a small-medium sized risk of with all the coldcallers one of 'em is going to pop you on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you care if you are popped on the turn? Even if it's heads up?

[Hand Quiz 12, p294 SSHE is a close enough example with a 4 flush and overcards, NPA there is faced with calling 2 cold and a smaller pot than our Hero here]

[Saborion]

Ehum.
There's a difference between calling other players bets and betting yourself. You can't include the pot size when betting for value (or can you?).

If you know you'll win here exactly 26 % of the time, then for a bet to be profitable you'll have to get at least 3 callers. It doesn't matter if the pot contains $0 or $5M.

[ActionBob]

Scott,

Your method to determine odds is incorrect. I believe others have elaborated already. If you haven't done so already, you will probably want to read it. I'm sure it will drastically improve your game. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Good luck.

-ActionBob

[DeeJ]

So you wouldn't put in $120 for a 25% chance to win $5m?

I think I need to lie down.....seriously, I see your point. But I think you're wrong. The analogy would be that you have the choice of putting in $0 to win $3m or $120 to win $5m. I know which I would choose.

What you are saying is basically you'd want to see the river as cheaply as possible to maximise the value of your turn action. This is fine.

But because the pot is big, so long as you stay in it, you are almost assured +EV even if it's capped. So I would want to ram and jam the pot despite only being on a draw. Add to that the possible long shots you might push out.

Let's put it another way. Would you want to have a pot of 28BB (from say 8BB +20BB overall) or 20BB (from say 5BB +15BB overall). Your return in the 28BB pot might only be 28:8, 3.5:1, rather than 4:1, but you win more.

I'd take the extra chips. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Emoney]

raise the flop. check call the turn, bet the river.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Both of our math is correct, except I used 45 instead of 46.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your math again more thoroughly, and see if you still think that.