Greg, a question again.

In the live NL game we had on Tuesday. With all your raising and hard hits including the small one I cold-decked you on...lol. Can I ask you, honestly, before getting Speedy Pete for his $2600, how deep into the game were you?


My guess was around $1500. But that's just a guess, but I ask, again because I want to know more about big stack strategy and how it works for you. Obviously if my guess is correct and you had an EV on Pete's stack of $2600 or more then your plays and getting that deep (on no luck at all up until then I grant you ) makes sense.


Answer if you want. I respect you if you don't choose to.


See additional post below "More from LIVE NL" as I want your comments there too!


Keep on playing hard my Rock friend!

I'm not sure, but I would guess closer to $1000, likely no more than $1200. I did take down a rather excessive number of small pots, in addition to the bigger ones I lost to you and a couple others. Unless you count my chips, it's pretty hard to keep track of it.


I won some more profit after the big pot, and cleared more than $2000 from the game.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Look at it this way. It's 5-10 blind no-limit holdem. We each have 7,500 in front of us. I'm a loose-aggressive player who is on a stealing rush and raising 70% of my hands pre-flop the last hour or so. I therefore have the image of an "action" player - meaning that I'm most likely to be given action by a not so strong hand because you are under the correct impression that the hands I have overall are below not so strong. I raise to 25 with 7-2o. You make it 300 total with AA. With the stacks we each have, I'm going to call you even though I know you have pocket Aces. Do you know why? Because 7-2o is only less than a 5 to 1 underdog against AA and I'm getting approximately 24 to 1 implied odds on my 300 making this a low risk/high reward +EV play.


Remember, I'm an "action player".

Yes, all of that is true IF your opponent is willing to put that much in. The word IMPLIED is very different here than in limit where you can count on a payoff of a certain number of bets of a pre-determined amount because the pot is laying your opponent correct odds to call.


But atlthough you may only be a 5-1 dog with your 7,2o few sharp players are going to fall into the trap when you spring it. If I have pocket aces and you call a preflop raise of $280, then I bet $300 and you make it $1,000 with any kind of flush, straight, or pair on board... I'd be far less likely to call "an action player" who'd been showing me a variety of hands. Therefore, getting a $900 return on your $280 investment is not sufficieant odds to keep pouring it in on 5-1 dogs.


You are also not keeping in mind a very important fact.... you are a 5-1 dog THROUGH the river. You are a far more serious dog on the flop where you must hit hard to continue the hand. That 5-1 figure includes those times when it's the turn and river that move you into the lead. That's 40% of the time! So now you are really more like a 8-1 dog preflop to see the flop that brings you instant success.


I just don't think you can justify these kind of risks on "Implied odds" that are intangible and far from guaranteed.


Just my opinion.


Keep playing hard!

It depends upon the opponent, of course.


But, if he knows you have AA, can't he count on you putting some serious money into the pot postflop when the flop comes 752, or 22T, or the like?


And if you tell me "No, he can't.", then I want to know how come he can't win by bluffing you out postflop when the flop is 863 or 33J? The only way you both avoid paying him off when he hits and simultaneously not getting bluffed off your hand is if you can "tell" the difference between a bluff and a value bet. I'm not saying you can't, but most people can't.


Of course, if I make the call with a hand like 72o, it's because I'm so sure I know EXACTLY what you've got (AA). If I control you that well, it means I also know you CAN'T read me so well also.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)