Short handed set-- on top of the world, right?

[edthayer]

Hero has 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the Button. I've been practicing being aggressive when there's only a limper or two, so I raised against one limper. The SB folded, and the BB 3-bet. The limper called and I called.

BB is a poor player who tends to be passive.

Flop:
J /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, Limper checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Limper calls, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Limper folds.

Turn:
4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River:2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets, Hero calls.

What do you think?

[Cerril]

I could easily believe BB having an overpair here instead of JJ. In fact, even if you give him twice the odds of having JJ you're still better to raise since he's only got 3 ways with JJ and 18 of having a different overpair.

I'd probably stop shy of capping but I'd raise and call the reraise.

[Seether]

I would raise and call a 3 bet....Id even consider capping....the only hand he would play this way that is beating you is JJ, there is a large chance that he would play AJ AA KK QQ the same way. I think the chance of seeing an overpair is pretty high here. AA KK QQ would cap that flop, and while they would often slow down a bit with that turn he might have thought you somehow had j7 for twopair and the board pair turn made his overpair better.

[ThrillFactor]

I'm going all the way with this one. 3-bet the river and call a cap. If he has JJ or (very unlikely) 44, then so be it. But your catagorizing him as a "poor" player makes me think that he could easily be overplaying AA or KK.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the river and call a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well yeah, ya'll know what I meant.

[edthayer]

He's poor, but remember he's also passive.

[Cerril]

I'm not sure I could give him credit for AJ here - if he's passive he wouldn't have pumped this preflop. Obviously though it doesn't matter since just overpairs are good enough. He could, on the other hand, be very easily giving us credit for AJ - and loving it.

[Cerril]

If he were the sort that's passive enough to slow down with an overpair and a ragged board like this, then you should probably have folded his reraise on the turn (you can treasure rocks that are that predictable). But AA/KK, and probably QQ should all be feeling on top of the world here.

[edthayer]

You have the ability to lay this down in a three way pot to a raise?

I envy your reading ability.

[ThrillFactor]

I knew someone would bring that point up, so I guess it comes down to a couple of things:

1) Is he capable of playing an overpair like this, or would he go into call-down mode after the board pairs?
2) What does he think of your play? Does he believe you would go hog-wild with just a jack? (difficult to answer, I know you probably don't have that many hands against him)


This fact that you're posting probably indicates that he got you on this one, but against most "poor" players (aggresive or passive) I'm taking my line.

[Cerril]

I absolutely don't, but usually my reads aren't even good enough to be scared of JJ... that's sort of the point. If I thought it was more likely for him to play AA like JJ here then I'd feel free to add bets to the pile, and with a board like that most people would be happy to.

However, if you did have the sort of read that said 'this guy only plays the nuts' then I'd toss my hand or maybe call down from the turn on.

[edthayer]

The problem is: I don't know.

I'm multi-tabling, so I don't have a *great* read on anyone. Sometimes, people stand out of the crowd. This guy stood out because I saw him in a lot of pots, mostly just calling away, and taking the very occasional stab at a pot.

I hadn't been at the table long enough to see him play a hand aggressively until it was (unfortunately) with me.

[Trix]

His check-raise after 3betting preflop screams JJ, but I dont think I´m sure enough to just call down from that point as it could be AA, so I either 3bet the flop or wait and raise the turn and call down to futher aggression.